cbmclean

MA enjoying the CMC, which sucks for NC and South.

Everybody wishcasts to some degree...everybody. One must just try to minimize it.

If you're talking Twitterati (or maybe X-eratti now) Webb seems to leaning towards more SE impacts due to the potential strength of the high. BAM is placing confidence in the more NW AI solutions. BAM seems to be based in Indiana area so I wonder if that "want" that to be the case more. I'm obviously hoping Webb is right this time. We for sure know he is not afraid to say so if he feels the pattern is not conducive for the SE.

As I mentioned yesterday it's frustrating how condescending and arrogant he can be, but he knows his stuff. He's also from Parkton (near Fayetteville, NC) so he had a whole childhood to ponder SE snow fails. That said I think it speaks well of NC weather weenies in general in that many of us, including many of us on this forum, knew that this was very unlikely to pan out and reacted accordingly. This is actually a very interesting case of NWP failure. We rightly disparage the GFS, but in this case I'd say it had the overall idea more correct that the Euro on average. Yeah the GFS bounced around like a drunk person playing Mariocart but the rock-solid Euro was rock solid wrong in the sense that it was showing no snow because it never brought the precip back NW until the very end. And when it did, it showed the same phantom snow that the GFS did. The NAM suite was so lost and will probably insist I got snow six hours after the storm is past. Oddly, the usually snow-happy CMC was probably the miost consistently correct at range in that it long showed a warm NW track. I would love to have a long convo with a NWP expert to try and understand why the models always overestimate the speed of cold fronts in general, and always fail to resolve the Apps specifically.

Congrats GA peeps!

That "little too aggressive with the cold front" is what is likely to ruin it though, at least for the Triangle East. You have a bit more buffer.

That's a Bloody Maria.

Has anything really changed though? We still lack an established cold high. We're still relying on cold air chasing moisture. I guess higher qpf allows more dynamic cooling?

We should probably organize an area-wide search to find the real Chuck and identify who tied him up and is posting under his name.

I missed his early pronouncements; was he bullish?

He can be annoyingly arrogant so it would be fun to see him get egg on his face, but I don't think it will be this time. As he has pointed out (over and over and over) with no established high the cold air is chasing moisture and in the history of NWP that has never worked out.

Just don't look.

Well, to be fair you can see the entire state (and Virginia too) east of the Apps suffers from a qpf shadow. Sometimes the Apps are nice like when they trap cold air. Other times I wish we could press a button and retract them.

We've been in a -PDO pit for 10 years. That makes La Ninas dominant. LN's kill the southern stream Next year should be wetter. But could be a torch. Pick your poison.

Do you believe that the AMO is a real thing?

I am declaring defeat on Sunday and moving on.

ENC going to get bypassed.

What the heck is the RRFS?

The only thing I trust about the NAM is when it shows a warm nose.

I love radiational cooling. I hate cloudy torch nights in winter I especially hate torch nights where there are no clouds but some how temps do not drop.

Just saw on X that California is drought free for the first time in a while. I guess the dryness went back east to visit relatives.

The Euro suite has been continuously overdoing the NW trough/SER all season in the LR. That said, eventually it is going to be right, and late Jan/Feb in a Nina is often SER season. On the other hand, if we continue to have a strong -EPO, a moderately negative PNA can help fight against over-suppression. As you know it's always a knife's edge down here.

Cold periods during Nina's are pretty much the Carolina Coastal Plain's time to shine.

I like the -EPO and +PNA for down my way, but that might be too much of a good thing for some of you guys, especially the NW crew. Luckily for them it won't look anywhere near that good as the "warts" come into view as it gets closer. Pretty though.

In general I heartily agree. For every suppression risk we have 10x NW trend fails. I'm more worried about the general background state of dryness. As @NorthHillsWx had an excellent point earlier: if it can't rain even when it's warm, what makes us think it can snow? I got zilch yesterday in a warm, muggy airmass. ETA: I meant to say that I got zilch rain Saturday.