cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Wasn't it was as away SE though?
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Got down to 16.3.
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Huh, neither looks good for NC, but 12Z is definitely less bad, unless you're talking the Outer Banks.
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Euro literally has snow in the GOM off Galveston and south of New Orleans.. Now THAT ladies and gentlemen, is suppressed.
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Oh com the f!cK on: 6.4" in the GOM of Galveston?
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That well-known Tallahassee-to-Savannah snow corridor. You know how being a snow weenie in the SE is? I am now actively rooting for the cold push to be less intense than the models say.
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I wouldn't say the storm is lost yet. Yeah the GFS lost it but right now it is not performing well. I think it is in 4th place behind the euro, CMC, and Ukie. They all have it so...
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whoops, yes thanks.
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Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs. Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nina response.
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In the MA thread there has been discussion about how bad the GFS has been performing lately, besides the euro, CMC, UKIE, the Euro AI is also trouncing it. Perhaps time to relegate it to the JV along with the ICON and the JMA.
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We would be better served to look at the medians anyway, as they are not skewed by the outrageous totals of a few outliers. Not sure if any site provides the medians?
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This might sound silly but my eyes have been dazzled by all the pretty maps; what is the actual timeframe of the event that we are trying to reel in? 1/21?
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That would be perfect for a northwest trend if it was 2 days out.
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Yeah but it generally tends to waffle more back and less forth, Needless to say, we are rooting for the GFS solution against the Euro, which is not a nice place to be :(.
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Ouch. Now THAT is a warm nose. It's like 55 F at 800 HP.
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We're getting toO exuberant. The letdown will be painful.
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What is this thing called "snow" of which you speak. We in ENC do not understand...
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I see we have recovered from the sugar high of those back-to-back GFS/Euro runs yesterday. All hope is still lost; carry on.
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Still looks like the GEFS and EPS are predicting the "Pacific Ridge" regime in the extended. I'm less sure of this now than I was before, though. Could this be the inverse of previous El Nino years (think 2018-19, and 2023-24) where the extended guidance endlessly spat out a canonical Nino response?
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Any idea what is causing that extreme anomaly?
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Let us dream for 6 hours.
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"Aggressive". You have a flair for understatement, sir.
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This is SE weenie approved. I'll see myself to the door, thanks. You guys will have the last laugh when I stare sadly out the window at cold rain while you shovel when it moves north.
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Would you mind explaining what you mean by "over running signal".
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THIS! As much as I love them in CAD events, I hate the Apps during -EPO cold outbreaks. It's also frustrating that for some reason the model physics can't resolve how they block low level cold air so they constantly tease us.
