cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Last I heard the GFS was in fourth place for the global 500 HP metric, behind the euro, Canadian and ukmet. Now I'm not sure if that was only talking about the operational or includes their ensemble systems as well. Also not sure if there is any difference in global performance vs NH LR patter in the cold season, which is what we really care about. I wish I had some idea where to get that data easily.
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Since @Ji be asleep on the bus I will fill in: Ah man, you can already see to the backside of the good pattern. A definite degradation from 300 to 360.
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Oh dear, the mood flipped.
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We're always happiest just before the crash
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I'll get excited when I see the jet extension chill a bit.
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Apparently, Jebman is an optimist about snow but a pessimist about rain.
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I don't really think that actual cross-polar flow (from Siberia) is super common for us or that it is the normal way we get "good cold". My understanding is our normal cold source region is the Mackenzie river valley area. And while agree that the Pac Puke has been more common over the last 7 years than before, we the CONUS several notable cold air outbreaks in that time. Unfortunately it seems that most of them have been targeted at the middle of CONUS, perhaps as a result of the persistent SER over those years. For example the great southern plains outbreak of 2021 which nearly brought the power grid to its knees. Back in late 2017 early 2018 we had an epic cold snap that set records in terms of duration of below 32 °F. I even hit 0 F at my house in the coastal plain which is almost unheard of. As usual it is a matter of degree and probability. Pac Puke is more common than it used to be. But it is not universal. ETA: I mean the NC coastal plain; yes I am a spy from the SE forum.
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Speaking of that, has anyone been paying attention to the trends on the JCI (Jet "Chill" Index)? Are we still on track to get it to calm down a bit so the source regions can start to recover.
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Well I was assuming he was talking about "nino good" which is good in the sense that it has a strong STJ and promotes east coast troughing, which is great as long as there is enough cold air to mix with the moisture. If he was just referring to the generic EPO/PNA good then i agree 100%.
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Sure, but that is not what I trying to talk about. Ralph said "a good PAC can overcome a meh Atlantic". I agree that can be true for a nice EPO/PNA dominant pattern, especially down in my neck of the woods since the dry arctic cold of a direct -EPO shot can sometimes move the storm track right over me with cold air. But in an east-based nino a "good" pacific is one that almost always has some tendency inject Pacific air, and the -NAO appears to be critical in modulating that. So what i am trying to say is that I am not sure a good east-based nino Pacific can overcome a meh Atlantic.
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Man I hate seeing rain in Quebec in mid/late December.
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Actually what I think I have learned is that THE critical factor is always whichever one sucks for us at a given time.
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Yeah but based on PSU's findings it appears that the NAO may be more important in the average west-based Nino because it helps modulate the alwaye Nino tendency to inject Pacific air into NA. I agree that in Nina the PAC is an absolute. If it is flooding us with Pac Puke then forget the NAO. If we have a nice EPO or PNA ridge, then perhaps the NAO is of less consequence.
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Geological epoch.
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The @psuhoffman lending library has many volumes you could check out on this topic, but in your heart of hearts, you know the answer to this question already
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I thought El Nino vs La Nina was modulated by the PDO as opposed to the AMO.
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I saw what you did.
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Be sure to include lots of flame emojis.
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Tell your boss that the NAO has degraded on the long range guidance and as a result you need to take a few extra weeks off to watch the models.
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He still lives and no one can tell me any different!! In other news, a link for the curious to the CPS MJO weekly write-up https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Summary: there is a disagreement between the dynamical models which predict the wave dies (potentially due to destructive interference from a CCKW in the Indian Ocean), and the "RMM forecast" which favor continuation of the wave into 7 and beyond. Not sure what entity/model is the "RMM forecast" other than the models, but I sure hope they are right. I've heard many people that the models tend to kill waves too quickly so maybe...
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Honest question, does it "count" if it tunnels through the COD to get to phase 8? Not used to seeing that.
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If the opinion of a random SE weenie (who has latched on to this forum like a tick), makes any difference to you, I appreciate your unbiased and intellectually impartial analysis. Please keep it coming.
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I just ignored my first ever person on here. I feel dirty.
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I think I may have read something about how stout +EAMT events can help destabilize the PV. Anyone else ever hear of that?
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The problem is that individual isn't doing it just out of lack of knowledge. He is a known troll who has haunted the tropical forum for several years now.
