cbmclean

Another day, another glancing blow. Cell ran out of steam just as it reached me. 0.04" today. 0.98" for the wet(ish) period.

On the plus side, today was much wetter in E NC than the mesos and CAMs were depicting yesterday evening. Hopefully that repeats again tomorrow.

Still can't get a flush hit... nickel and dimed my way to 0.73" today, 0.94" since Thursday. 1.94" for the month. From Winston-Salem to Rocky Mount, the N piedmont and coastal plain has been the loser so far.

Incoming Wake County.

Visiting my wife's sister near Liberty, NC. I do not envy you piedmonters your red clay. They are doing a lot of construction on their property and there is a ton of bare ground, which is currently a gelatinous quagmire.

Well to be fair, my POP was really high, and I did indeed get rain. Just not very much of it.

From Raleigh east to Greenville has been the looser so far. Only 0.21" for me so far. Hoping I can cash in Tomorrow.

Wedge cloud cover appears to be breaking up on radar in the east. Should allow atmosphere to destabilize from east to west. That is the hope anyway. Only 0.16 so far since Thursday IMBY.

Blame the gravity waves.

RAH AFD mentioning the possibility of losing QPF due to a "gravity wave". Wikipedia essentially describes a gravity wave as any wave where gravity is the restorative force, which describes a lot of waves. There is a section on atmospheric examples but it's very broad. Anyone care to share on what gravity wave means in the context of NC weather? Waves of moderate showers and storms will continue to be directed across the Carolina Wed evening into Thurs morning ahead of a back-door cold frontal passage slowly sagging south across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Precip chances may be negatively impacted by any gravity wave development during this time, which can rapidly erode precip generation in this type of pattern. By Thurs morning, the combination of frontogentical forcing and an area of low pressure rippling along the front will likely bring another round of widespread showers and isolated storms before shifting east of the area by late Thurs evening. Uncertainty in timing of the fropa is resulting in lower confidence in the development of an unstable air mass supportive of surface-based convection Thurs afternoon, which will be needed to realize any severe potential. Strong and increasing shear with height will be highly favorable for storm organization, but conditional on development of deep convection first. Storm total rainfall through Thurs evening looks to bring much needed rain to the area with the reasonable low-end from the HREF still producing a swath of 0.75 to 1" somewhere over the Carolinas. However, the experimental REFS paints a troubling alternate scenario with reasonable low-end amounts closer 0.25 to 0.5". With the potential for gravity wave development and more quickly eroding shields of precipitation, this scenario can`t be ruled out.

What is "truth"? And did you really mean to phrase that as a question.

0.43" for the day. 1.32" for the week. 1.53" since last Saturday. Together with reduced evaporation from cool temps, the bleeding is stopped...for now.

0.55 last night. 1.10 for the week.

0.17". At least enough to lay the pollen for a bit.

Didn't think I was going to need long pants anymore until the fall, but here we are. Currently 56.1 F, which is also the daily low (so far). Blustery as well.

0.18".

28.6 for a low last night. Last hard freeze of the season?

Crap.

How is it possible for there to be a -PNA with that much of a western ridge? What exactly is the definition of the PNA index?

What is the hypothesized physical mechanism of causation between sunspots (or solar cycle in general) and high latitude blocking?

I had a similar thought about cold chasing moisture, especially east of the Apps and double especially east of the taller Apps down in my neck of the woods. Every model run in history overestimates how fast the cold gets over the mountains and frequently hallucinates phantom snow as a result. Since the AIs are trained on historical data one would think that this bias should go poof on an AI model.

I have seen some debate if this was a Miller A or B or hybrid or what (which is not unusual). I'm beginning to wonder if how useful those categories really are, but I was under the impression that one of the hallmarks of a B was a Ohio Valley low that transfers, and I didn't think that there was one of those in this case. In your perception, what made this storm more "B-ish"?

Webb seems to be really hyping the strength. I suspect he would be gleeful with a strong east-based episode.

Isn't there going to be a western ridge spike, aka +PNA?

Dang Euro with its surface deceptions...