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cbmclean

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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. cbmclean
    The Wire was a good show.
  2. cbmclean
    Ji pays out at 1:1000,
  3. cbmclean
    This has been an odd year, BAM and Eric Webb have often been on the cold hype train; while JB has been a downer. Next we'll see dogs and cats living together; mass hysteria!!
  4. cbmclean
    The 2/13 wave is of little interest to me at this point but I am intrigued by some of the looks showing up after that. It takes a lot to get good stuff east of RDU in late Feb especially in the warmer base state, but I got a solid 2 - 3" back in late Feb 2020, which was a miserable +++AO torch year overall.
  5. cbmclean
    Starting to see some comparisons to the Feb 2018 SSWE which apparently was rather sudden and unexpected. At this point though, do we really want a SSWE? Seems like things are coming together nicely with a split PV with a piece trapped on our side. SSWE's are like throwing a grenade in the pattern and hoping for the best.
  6. cbmclean
    The prognosticated pattern improvement, if it verifies, seems to be setting up about 2 weeks too late for legitimate hopes for RDU east. That said some pretty anomalous solutions starting to show up on some guidance, so I'll stay interested for a while yet
  7. cbmclean
    NC climate sites summary from January from the NWS shows Raleigh only -3.1 F for the month while Gboro was -4.9 and Fayetteville was -5.1. RDU was only 0.2 colder than Fay overall and actually 0.6 warmer for mean minimum.
  8. cbmclean
    But the way in which a -PDO screws with a nino is by favoring + height anomalies in east, counteracting the nino propensity to drive a trough their, right?
  9. cbmclean
    I could have sworn SER made some appearances last year in between Pac Puke episodes. I guess to clarify when I speak of the "SER" I am including the -PDO propensity for heights to spike to the North Pole in front of every short wave. Maybe that is a different animal from a stable bermuda ridge.
  10. cbmclean
    The SER definitely made multiple appearances last year. It and Pack Puke basically took turns crushing our dreams
  11. cbmclean
    Yes I was aware of the mercurial nature of SPV collapses (aka SSW events), just not as familiar with splits.
  12. cbmclean
    Then sign me up for splitsville!
  13. cbmclean
    What, if anything, are the potential implications for an SPV split in terms of sensible weather? I'm not really familiar with split PVs.
  14. cbmclean
    So does a split stratospheric PV mean anything for the lower troposphere?
  15. cbmclean
    I will also note that not all of the GEFS members are that explosive into 6, with a sizeable number looking like the Euro. I wonder if the ensemble mean is being significantly skewed by the camp which is predicting explosion.
  16. cbmclean
    As Weather Will noted, GEF apesh!t SER likely stems from explosive intensification of the MJO into Phase 6 with one member bursting through the roof and apparently causing the world to incinerate. The EPS is much more restrained with a general prediction of progression through 6 into 7. We really want to get back to 8 to tart feeling better.
  17. cbmclean
    I protest at the use of the word "gorgeous" to describe a Bermuda High in winter.
  18. cbmclean
    Well you did have that glorious but brief Gheorghe Mureșan era. Seriously though I liked watching him play. He had some talent.
  19. cbmclean
    So a warm period the first week of Feb looks highly likely barring some major modeling collapse (wouldn't it be nice if the warm pattern collapsed like last years epic pattern collapsed?) Looks like the crystal ball is very murky after that. As @psuhoffman has pointed out, historical analogs say a flip back to cold would be expected by the end of February into March. The real question as I see it is what happens the period of say Feb 10 - 24.
  20. cbmclean
    The GFS appears to be firmly in the camp of a longer tour through the bad phases of the MJO. May be contributing to that enhanced SER look.
  21. cbmclean
    I would call it more less troughing in the west. Still I'd rather have it go that way than the other. I tried to embed a trend GIF but it wouldn't work for me. I've seen people do it before. How do you do it?
  22. cbmclean
    The 10 HP winds are actually very strong this year or so I have heard, so no SSWs in the offing. As many have observed they are a crapshoot at best and absolutely undesirable with a good longwave pattern.
  23. cbmclean
    That event is fondly remembered in my sub for obvious reasons.
  24. cbmclean
    The upcoming 2030 - 2060 base period. -10 F equates to 60 F.
  25. cbmclean
    Are you familiar with Ji?
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