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cbmclean

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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. cbmclean
    One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible. Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA?
  2. cbmclean
    Interesting to note that the Greenland Ridge is the only game in town if you want a HECS.
  3. cbmclean
    Well, it had recovered nicely but then it tanked again. Perhaps it was considerably thinner than normal. Zooming out from the eastern CONUS, the big story of the winter has been the absolute obliteration of the heartland's snow/cold by the December torch. It was mild here but it was quite muted compared to what they had. They did have a nice cold outbreak in January along with most of the country, but by then the damage had been done. As the years go by it becomes more and more apparent that the events of the "pre-winter" (late November) and the first third of winter can have significant impacts on the evolution of the rest of the winter.
  4. cbmclean
    I'm skeptical that it is physically possible to accurately pick up a wave that far out. I guess we'll find out.
  5. cbmclean
    Does anyone know what sort of algorithm/process they use to determine analogs? Seems like something that would only be possible with AI/machine learning but they have been doing it for years before that stuff was around?
  6. cbmclean
    But where's my +PNA? i was told there would be a +PNA. @Stormchaserchuck1 promised me a +PNA.
  7. cbmclean
    "The better models"... you mean Mr. 4th place GFS? I voted it gets demoted to the JV with the Icon and the JMA.
  8. cbmclean
    With Chuck on our side, who can stand against us?
  9. cbmclean
    My parents live in Hope Mills NC, which is near the northern end of that bullseye. Where does your mom live?
  10. cbmclean
    I must admit I miss your old name. Zugzwang captures so perfectly the essence of being a snow weenie south of the Mason-Dixon line: doesn't matter which direction the storm moves, it's a fail.
  11. cbmclean
    Well if, as some speculate the Control is upgraded in resolution then you wouldn't loose much if anything in the short term and in theory you could get better long-range performance. I know you're not particularly interested in that but maybe that is their plan. I also wonder if their research scientists believe that there isn't much point in trying to increase the op resolution any further with current measurement technologies. One might suspect that with chaos and whatnot, at a certain point increasing spatial resolution just leads to higher resolution noise. They might think they'll get more bang for their buck (euro) by improving the ensembles algorithms. NWP is a fascinating subject to me I wish there was more literature on it that was accessible to an educated lay person.
  12. cbmclean
    Still haven't figured out your old handle. Looking for a good PI to hire in the Bethesda area.
  13. cbmclean
    Wow, seems like that would be a big step backwards in resolution for short-term (1 - 5 days) forecasting.
  14. cbmclean
    I don't have anything personal against her. I recognize that she is a talented individual and an excellent performer. I just really, really hate when the interconnected nexus that is the modern media-industrial complex drives something or someone into the ground.
  15. cbmclean
    Not a Raven's fan but was rooting for them big time to keep Taylor Swift out of the Super Bowl. Turned on the TV to check the score (doing work on the treehouse) and what was the first sight to greet my eyes: Taylor Swift hugging Travis Kelce...
  16. cbmclean
    Mozart schmozart. Everyone knows that Salieri was the real genius!
  17. cbmclean
    What showed 30 inches? If you are referring to the map posted by @olafminesaw, it was showing the probability of getting >1" is about 30% for RDU. Which is still better than baseline.
  18. cbmclean
    That event introduced me to the term "confluence".
  19. cbmclean
    Man, somebody just stole the miter saw I stupidly left on my front porch while I took the kids to the park. I am very angry with myself for leaving it out there but I honestly feel almost violated that a thief was on my porch. The psychology of someone who believes they are entitled to have anything they can take is honestly alien to me.
  20. cbmclean
    "Quasi-omega block"? What is quasi about it?
  21. cbmclean
    PSU fringed
  22. cbmclean
    Wait, who were you?
  23. cbmclean
    Can;t watch this myself at work, but this may be informative: https://m.facebook.com/NOAAClimateGov/videos/rossby-waves-and-wave-breaking/1527253234461813/
  24. cbmclean
    The concept of wave breaking is common across many types of wave phenomenon. here is the wiki article about in a general sense for gravity waves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_wave_breaking Rossby waves (our kind of waves in the 500 HP pattern) apparently can also "break", but like you I am not sure what that looks like on a 500 HP plot.
  25. cbmclean
    I have to push back on this thought a little. It is my hypothesis based on observations and my own experiences that some people are just intrinsically predisposed to positivity or negativity to varying degrees. I am on the negative side. I have been ever since I was little. I didn't make a decision to be that way. I can't just make it go away by choosing it. I can fight it, and I do, but it is a lifelong struggle. Sometimes I am successful. Often I am not. I suspect many others are the same way. I think it's fair to hope that people who have an easier time being positive have some awareness and consideration for those for whom it is not so easy. At the same time, people who KNOW they are negative need to try and avoid bringing others down with it, because that is not fair either.
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