cbmclean

Man look at that triangle of doom in West Kansas.

Won't gave access to the models for a bit. GEP look good?

Gotta love how it shows sleet/zr in the gulf of Mexico. 1899 redux. I'm sure it will happen.

Boo, hiss. ETA: This is definitely banter. Is there a way to move one's own post to another thread?

My first interpretation is that it appears to have no clue. I am guessing the green line is the Ensemble mean. Individual members are showing it emerge literally everywhere.

If anyone is interested in the two cents of a random out-of-forum visitor, I would say that this is the best regional forum on the board, at least that I have visited. My home SE forum means well, but we don't have the same model chops as you guys. NYC and Philly are ok, I guess, haven't spent much time there. NE is...troubled. Out west is barely populated. Specifically for PSU, even your "unproductive" melt-down posts are useful for the uneducated, like me. There are so many negative nancies, who only dwell on the bad, combined with superweenies, who only hug the good, combined with bipolars who shift back and forth violently between ecstasy and despair. When a respected, level-headed, intellectually honest personage such as PSU or Bob melts down it s a valuable signal that the prognosis is truly bad.

Also, neglected to post this earlier. Here is a hailstone from the beginning of the storm on last Friday. I think this one is a due to several stones melting and refreezing together.

Had some torrential windy rain in Wilson.

Just plain sigh...

Well, the wording of his statement "I take full responsibility for my actions ..." kind of suggests to me that he did something bad to someone else. I could mention the first thing that comes to mind, but it would be baseless speculation. Man, I am bummed I grew up with him.

I am seriously bummed out by this. I wonder what the heck happened.

Congrats to the DC bunch from your SE forum friends. Here's hoping the whole east coast can cash in on multiple big ones over the next month.

Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?

Awfully quiet in here now.

I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM? I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.

Actually Calgary is prone to snow-eating Chinook winds. Might want to try the Michgan UP.

Well, there are clearly two camps. HRRR says plenty of love for RDU. NAM says that at least 1/2 of the QPF at RDU will be the tears of snow weanies. The NAM is supposed to be good with the warm nose so I have a bad feeling about it.

My pleasure. Of course I meant "battle between cold, dry air and warm, wet air".

Actually thermal issues are a hallmark of many large snow events wherever even up to New England. The fundamental fact is that cold air tends to be dry and wet air tends to be warm. So big snows tend to happen on the front lines of a battle between cold dry air and warm dry air, which means the thermals will generally tend to be unstable.

Well, to be fair, the 93 superstorm was in March.

Yes, I meant Jan 2017. Sorry.

To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion). I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.

He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident". Someone re-posted it yesterday. If I knew how, I would re-post it again. It should be required reading before one can post on here.

Most of them bad, apparently.

So what does "getting NAMed" mean? I had thought it was when the NAM showed a rediculously overdone QPF at range. But I saw a post in the main storm thread which seemed to imply it meant when the NAM was first to sniff out a warm nose and rained on your snow parade. Which is it?