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cbmclean

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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. cbmclean
    Family before weather? And you call yourself a weenie.
  2. cbmclean
    Well, from what I have seen written: 1. Not all SSWEs propagate to the surface. 2. Not all SSWEs which propagate will impact here (instead of say Eurasia). 3. Even if it does impact us here there can be a sizable lag (2 weeks to a month). Once we see positive impacts inside day 10, I am sure that many will be more excited. Of course if we do see blocking, I am not sure if there is any way to know if it came from the SSWE or not
  3. cbmclean
    PSU, weren't you speculating earlier about God getting smiting the MA?
  4. cbmclean
    The frustrating thing about hyperbole like that is that I have a feeling if the Pacific says NO and we torch for the rest of winter, this post will either be forgotten or he'll pull some obscure index out as an explanation as to why it failed. But if it turns cold, he'll say he nailed it even if it isnt clear if it had anything to do with the SSWE. Edit: I mean Cohen, not EastCoast NPZ.
  5. cbmclean
    This disaster is also due to an endless supply of Pacific air though, right? Is it just that the mechanism for supplying the air is different?
  6. cbmclean
    So what was the story with the three month long Pacific fire hose in 2011-2012? Hopefully no analogs to this year.
  7. cbmclean
    @PSU or Bob Chill Do you guys put any stock in this AAM or EAMT stuff? Sometimes it's hard to sort out meaningful concepts for someone's mumbo jumbo.
  8. cbmclean
    Are you seriously saying you had below average rainfall? I didn't know there was anywhere in the Carolinas which wasn't above normal.
  9. cbmclean
    What organization "officially" determines if there is an el nino going on or not?
  10. cbmclean
    Actually I'm from the SE forum. My group seems to have gone into hibernation after our snow so I have to come here for actual analysis. Jan 16 was just rain for us.,
  11. cbmclean
    Please do not mention that month.
  12. cbmclean
    Just read a post from NittanyWX in the New York forum saying that actually it's the Euro which has been getting the mjo correct and the gas which has been whiffing. Something g about how the RMM plots don't show the real story. He also feels that AAM is really running the show and there will be no sustained cold until that changes. I wish I knew how to link to posts.
  13. cbmclean
    Over on the NY thread Don Sutherland notes that we have tied the record for number if consecutive days in phase 5: 12 days. Yay.
  14. cbmclean
    Just seeing how many things can go wrong really makes me amazed at how often it does snow south of the Mason Dixon line.
  15. cbmclean
    Can't figure how to post pic on phone, but gfs mjo forecast looking less bad. Seems line the stall zone is moving in to 7. Didn't PSU say that 7 is not bad in January?
  16. cbmclean
    Talking about the Jan 4 event or just in general?
  17. cbmclean
    To be frank, I don't feel as if I have a handle on why anything is happening. Models are flipping every run with violently opposed solutions. Showing up with 500 hPa anomalies which seem physically impossible given the teleconnections. The PV is doing the chachacha and no one knows where it will end up, maybe back at the north pole, maybe in Ji's basement. MJO behaving like it's in a Nina. A persistence forecast maybe the only reasonable approach: it will be mild and wet until it isn't.
  18. cbmclean
    Which would be nice, assuming it ever gets to 7/8/1.
  19. cbmclean
    I was considering suggesting this as well, but since I don't actually provide useful analysis and since I am not even in my home forum I refrained from trying to boss everyone around. But from various sources it seems probable that the mjo is in the driver seat right now. Don Sutherland seems to think that the SOI is critical now as well, and he is one of the posters that I trust the most.
  20. cbmclean
    Who/what organization puts out the icon?
  21. cbmclean
    This surprises me because the CFS has the best MJO forecast. Rockets through phases 6 and 7 into the promised land of 8.
  22. cbmclean
    If it saved you from looking at the models, you might be better off.
  23. cbmclean
    Best case scenario still looks to be CFS, entering phase 8 ~Jan 6th. Hope it's right.
  24. cbmclean
    Alright, euro shows MJO going through phase 6 at low amplitude then into COD. Who else has guidance?
  25. cbmclean
    Help me obi wan Kenobi, you're my only hope.
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