cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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By the way, I like your little header "1899 Repeat, Please". I learned about the great 1899 cold outbreak in my well-loved copy of Christopher C. Burt's "Extreme Weather". -2 F in Tallehassee! Here is a link to a journal article about it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0305%3ATGAOAE>2.0.CO%3B2
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You know, I still can't shake the feeling that SOMETHING unforeseen is going to go wrong with this storm. An under-modeled warm nose, anomalous dry banding, aliens from space using their death rays to zap the snow before it hits the ground. And when it happens, this board is going to be near catatonic.
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Can someone remind me what the RGEM is again. Asking for a friend
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Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain?
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Good to see you posting Downeastnc. I'm trying to stay aloof of this storm, I just don't see much in the cards for us. Maybe some wet flakes if we are lucky.
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We're used to it.
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Hey Buddy, are you model watching while you should be working?
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That may have been in jest, but i think it's a good point in reality. Since the major storm seems to depend on the perfect timing of the NS and SS features, once more data is assimilated it may go poof.
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Looks like ENC is going to get an epic dose of...cold rain.
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Oh, it's academic for me. I'm not getting anything anyway. It's just that they were really hyped yesterday but were bummed after that last model run. It;s a roller coaster ride for sure.
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The MA forum is frowny-faced right now.
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That surprises me, the Raleigh area has been burnt so many times. Not that he has anything to do with the RAH forecast, but I think Greg Fishel lost 3 years of life just from the Jan 2016 debacle alone.
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It was last year right after Christmas in the Dec 29ish time frame where there was a large storm modeled which went poof due to being suppressed. In retrospect, I am glad that it did, because that suppression was the herald of an arctic outbreak the likes of which I had never seen before, including frozen-over lakes in Wilson, NC. In my opinion, that is more enjoyable than any individual storm. And much of NC still got to cash in on some snow later anyway.
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Sorry I didn't see this question until today. I'm not sure if they drained the lake or just lowered the level. In any event, the dam held, although it was over-topped.
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I think Solak is scarred because his location has apparently replaced wherever Shetley lives as the desert spot of the east. Seriously though, some folks in my hometown of Hope Mills are at risk of being flooded out for the second time in three years.
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What I can't wait for is December to come around again and the NAO to be nailed positive for three straight months, only for it to go negative in March.
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I am even more hard core. I like cold, period. I prefer snow of course, but I will even enjoy the dreaded cold rain if that is all I can get. I am gleefully hoping that we have a cold dreary March to pay back all those who kept going on about how wonderful it was to have upper 70's in Feb. Does that make me a bad person?
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I am very happy with cold. This last cold snap was like balm to my soul.
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Tracking snow in the SE will drive you mad.
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Who is this other board, and why are we apparently the enemies?
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Hope spring eternal.
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Mr. Rain, I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you for your services to me and the rest of the SE in saving us from the scourge of potential snow. Your genius was in seeing that the cold stormy signal was too strong to deflect with your snow shields. So you reversed tachyon polarity and caused the cold HP to blow up so much that it suppressed all the moisture to the south. Bravo. Dilly Dilly
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You know, last winter, it was clear what we needed to write on the tombstone: "Here lies the winter of 2015-16: Killed by El Nino". What are we going to put on this winter's tombstone? That is was killed by a pathetic La Nina that was so weak that it didn't even meet some of the criteria and barely met others? I would really love an autopsy to determine the cause of death, if you will. Anyone feel up to the analysis?
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I wonder if thy just need to quit showing maps of predicted snowfall on a regular basis. These are basically equivalent to individual ensemble forecasts in that they give an idea of one possible outcome and nothing more.
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I know, but its human nature that the grass is always greener somewhere else? (or in our case the snow is always deeper). By the way, what do they consider "decent" up there in terms of amount and frequency?
