cbmclean

We abscond?

There is actually a whole forum devoted to it on here. I hardly ever go over there though. I imagine the flame wars must be epic.

"rager no" = "rather have no"?

Well I come from Fayetteville so we get even less snow there, but I know it must be painful to be near that Wake County gradient. Looking at snow maps at times it seems that if you looked up the street you can see more snow.

Well, I did not mean to to start an AGW debate in this forum, I was just discussing my personal pessimism. I probably shouldn't have mentioned it at all.

I am not part of the mass rush to the cliff yet. But just in the spirit of general discussion I will say that I am generally pessimistic by nature. That being said I actually believe that my snow pessimism is generally justified. I am a person who loves snow and cold, who lives in a region where the climate does not favor snow and cold (SE is even worse than MA!), living in a time where the global climate is become less and less conducive to winter cold. I live with the honest fear that every snow storm will be my last.

Yeah I realized you were being sarcastic (about the clarity), but it seems there is very little easily available info on how to read that octant chart so I appreciate the info.

Bob, could you educate me a bit on this chart? I understand the octants, but what are the x and y axes RMM1/RMM2? What is the green line "BOMM"? And what are all the yellow lines?

Where exactly are you in Raleigh? I am guessing somewhere in the south.

How so?

You guys do know that there are areas in the NC high country that average 50+" right? Mt Mitchell is just over 90". Not as good as far western Maryland, but still respectable. Of course we over in the low-lands are lucky if we see 5" in a year.

I think that's at least at least the third time you've used the phrase "unicorn SSW". This puzzles me because we had a SSW which impacted the sensible weather earlier this year, in March 2018. Unfortunately, it was too late to help us in February when it really could have made some difference, but March featured notable NAO blocking which lead to a cool stormy month. It looks like the fact of the SSW is high probability. The real question is whether or not it will be "downward propagating". There is significant discussion about that point in the MA forum. There is a poster named Isotherm, whom other appear to respect, who believes that it will. Others are less confident.

PSU, I am curious as to your view of Isotherm's opinion that the atmospheric base state promoted a cold december abset the PV disturbance. Earlier today I think you mentioned that later December warmth was highly common in El Ninos.

Would anyone be willing to explain how to visually evaluate the PNA and EPO state from an H5 map like the above?

I see that the EPS has a much stronger South Atlantic ridge. That makes me nervous. To see it creeping into eastern NC, where I live.

Which guidance do you mean? GFS or EURO (or other). Ops or ensemble?

So there is a big difference between you and say, Bob Chill in Rockville, in terms of median snowfall?

Yes they did have that storm pegged early, but from reading others post it seemed like that was unexpectedly good performance.

I was under the impression that you shouldn't really trust the operational models past 5 days in general.

So Mr PSU, just curious what is the climate like in your neck of the woods. Your profile says you live in Manchester, I was wondering how the local climate affects your snow.

For a certified Pacific puke pattern, the last few days havent been bad at all. I have been in Old Fort, NC in the foothills. Highs have been upper 40s lows upper 20s to lower 30s. So below normal actually.

A few weeks ago there was discussion on here of the euro overdoing lows in the Southwest. Fast forward to Christmas. My wife got me Tim Vasquez's Weather Map Handbook. One the first thing I noticed when flipping through it was this starement: "The ECMWF is notorious for overdoing or overpopulating cutoff lows, particularly in the Southwest US." You guys know your stuff.

Thanks!

I know that KU stands for those two guys who literally wrote the book on big snow in the east, but what is a "KU storm"? Is it a specific type like a Miller A/B or does it just mean a big storm?