cbmclean

I'd rather it look good in the ultra-long range than bad. I look at it this way: given the known model biases towards cold in the long range, if the long range looks good, it might turn out good, it might turn out bad, it might turn out average. If the long range looks warm, that is indicative of a strong warm signal. Of course I'm just referring to consistent runs that move forward in time. Plenty of times the ultra-long ranges just flip back and forth randomly; just NWP noise.

I have been deliberately staying away from the mid-to-long range forum because reality was just too gloomy, but I popped in today and say that someone had secretly inserted some hope. Will this be the third straight early December tease, to be immediately followed by the Mid December Pac Puke, to be followed by January - March east conus ridge? There are already signs of the MJO gearing up for its winter-long promenade through phases 4 - 6. (Clarification note: When I say the early part of last December "teased" I mean that in relative terms. It was normal to very slightly cool, which promised hopes of weather which didn't suck. Obviously those promises were unfulfilled).

9.71 inches for the even event here in Wilson on my pws. Extensive looding Schools closed today and tomorrow.

A torrential downpour this afternoon; 5.65" so far today and still raining.

For the PNA to trend back towards 0 would be a big win. The NAO/AO are interesting. In both cases the control looks very promising towards the end of the month, but you can see that in both cases the ensemble means are in + territory. That tells me that there is a minority of members that are predicting solid negative departures, but the majority of the members are positive. Does anyone know what the meaning of the thicker blue bar in the middle of the spread lines. Is that like the 25 - 75th percentile?

We're past panic. Now its just acceptance and on to 2021-2022.

Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing. Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16. Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

The Pacific Doom Blob which haunted us all last winter is back like a horror movie villain. It just won't die.

I have gotten to the point where just don;t care anymore what he thinks or says. Even spending time mocking him is a waste..

I am curious what your other two are.

Still scarred from that 100 F reading at RDU last October 3.

All signs pointing to a La Nina, which means hello South East Redieg all winter.

Isn't that just Nina climatology?

Peaking in from the SE forum and I see that we are having a forum meltdown 3.67 months before the start of met winter. The sad thing is its not really irrational.

I got 0.10" out of this "wet" period. Just missed another nice cell yards, which could have been a good half-incher. Now staring down the barrel of a death ridge. July could be hard on the garden.

I blame PSU personally. If he hadn't have made that infamous post back in late December, this never would have happened.

I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something.

Its a pretty low bar, but I'll take it.

Still holding at 33 F. If I could have had one degree, I could have had 6 inches.

Checking his garbage cans ain't happening?

So I'm in the jackpot zone 48 hours out. What could go wrong?

Just read the aforementioned Istotherm post. Based on his analysis I am concluding that our best case scenarios is to catch some breaks and struggle to a merely bad winter, as opposed to atrocious. It is still very much in play for me to get completely blanked this winter, for the first time since the 90's. By blanked I mean not even laying eyes on a single flake/pellet of frozen precipitation. In 2011-12 I at least saw a few sleet pellets.

Only when it depicts a dumpster fire.

Again, I must hasten to add that was not a criticism. I simply assume that if he mentions something on here, there is a good reason. I just wanted to understand the reasoning behind it. I know that he does not require kid gloves, but I do not want the rest of the forum to think I am one of those posters who comes in and gripes to show off how much they think they know.

The following is not an attempt to criticize but an honest attempt to learn. Why do you (by "you" I mean the top-tier knowledgeable weenies as opposed to random posters) analyze the operationals in the long range? It was my understanding that they are effectively useless at that lead. Is it just something fun to do, or is there sometimes some actually useful info buried in the trends etc? I know that PSU has mentioned that since the GEFS is still based on the old GFS, he still looks at the GFS just so he has an idea of what the new core thinks. Is that the only justification?