cbmclean

Sadly, most of the big game animals have been on a very slow boat meandering around the maritime continent and the western pacific.

In general, when you refer to "climo" without qualification, are you referring to the mean, or the median?

I wouldn't say the game has been bad. Just defensive. I like these games once in a while. I don't like the idea of the NFL turning into Arena Football.

Goff seems lost.

So 2015-2016 would be a B for you?

MJO looking more positive for the second half of February as you say. I can't help but to feel a little cheated. The MJO has been taking its sweet time meandering around the warm phases most of Met winter. The only two times it was even briefly good there was some action around. The northern SE got a big hit in early December and the southern half of your area got a nice hit in mid January. I cant help but to have the feeling that this winter really "wanted" op be epic, if it hadn't been crashed.

The NAO is known to be streaky on a decadal scale, so I am hoping that some the warmth of this past decade might be natural variation. That being said I expect regular snowfall (ie a nice one every three years or so) in the non-mountainous areas of NC/SC to cease in the next decade or two.

Well, if you have to have only one model on your side, I would prefer it to be the euro.

I threw mine in last weekend. There are actually some encouraging signs for the MJO progression for the second half of February, but I suspect that it is too late for us. MA and NE could get score though.

I know very little compared to you so take this for what it's worth. I actually feel that you tend to look on the positive side most of the time. This is not in any way dishonest. Its just that you, like everyone one else on this board is a snow lover, so you want to analyze how a pattern "could" work to get snow. There is nothing wrong with that at all, but I think that many, including me, have looked to your posts as a bulwark against the Debbies. So when you are negative, it is concerning. What I really care about is accuracy: positive, negative, or indifferent. So I urge to keep posting what you see. If the pattern is relentlessly negative, then your posts should be relentlessly negative (unless you start hating snow somehow lol).

Yes, but its that urge to understand more and better which has driven so much of progress in science and technology. I feel the same way he does. I burn to understand the why. I wish I could just wrap my hands around the MJO's metaphorical neck and scream in its face: "tell me y our secrets; why do you do the things you do?!!!!"

And yes I know it is an op at range. I am just learning how to use Tropical Tidbits to follow along with you guys.

Nice hit at 228 for you guys. Looks like it would be another another DC-south focused event.

So I think that I read on here that strong El Ninos tend to dampen the magnitude of the mjo. So I am guessing that it wasn't much of a factor that winter?

Interesting article. I shudder to think that it was written on the cusp of the "alleged December" of 2015. At you guys got a good storm in January.

Eh just take them straight to state space.

I'm glad you didn't just say "the big VD outbreak".

As much as I try not to care, it's like a moth to the flame.

How you guys have the stamina to continue analyzing stuff day after day amazes me, especially in a frustrating winter like this one. I don't do anything but read your posts and the emotional roller coaster of the long range models has me exhausted. It must truly be a labor of love.

I wish it could go "poof" as easily as did the modeled -NAO.

Regarding the upcoming warm spell that is being modeled in the LR on the ensembles: I have a perception that when models latch onto torches at d10+ it seems that it verifies much more often than not. On the other had, it seems like modeled cold spells are much more ephemeral. It just seems like all that modeled cold that has been locked in for a while can go "poof" well into the medium range. And when cold spells do occur, it seems like they kind of sneak up on the guidance Does anyone else share this perception? I suspect (and hope) that it is just selection bias: since I like cold and hate warmth, I notice when warmth is modeled and verified, and when cold is modeled and does not verify. But I am curious if others feel the same way.

I am just hoping that after taking most of the decade off, the -NAO comes back to being a regular part of our weather soon. As you mentioned before, it is streaky.

The difference, though, is that Patriots actually had an impact on the outcome of that game. There is nothing that I can do to affect the weather one way or another.

I am curious. Is there mirror image regime which is as good as the AK vortex is bad?

But how is that different from a run-of-the-mill Pac puke?