cbmclean

I have been deliberately staying away from the mid-to-long range forum because reality was just too gloomy, but I popped in today and say that someone had secretly inserted some hope. Will this be the third straight early December tease, to be immediately followed by the Mid December Pac Puke, to be followed by January - March east conus ridge? There are already signs of the MJO gearing up for its winter-long promenade through phases 4 - 6. (Clarification note: When I say the early part of last December "teased" I mean that in relative terms. It was normal to very slightly cool, which promised hopes of weather which didn't suck. Obviously those promises were unfulfilled).

9.71 inches for the even event here in Wilson on my pws. Extensive looding Schools closed today and tomorrow.

A torrential downpour this afternoon; 5.65" so far today and still raining.

For the PNA to trend back towards 0 would be a big win. The NAO/AO are interesting. In both cases the control looks very promising towards the end of the month, but you can see that in both cases the ensemble means are in + territory. That tells me that there is a minority of members that are predicting solid negative departures, but the majority of the members are positive. Does anyone know what the meaning of the thicker blue bar in the middle of the spread lines. Is that like the 25 - 75th percentile?

We're past panic. Now its just acceptance and on to 2021-2022.

Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing. Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16. Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

The Pacific Doom Blob which haunted us all last winter is back like a horror movie villain. It just won't die.

Torrential downpour yielded 1.78". It had been a little dry lately but this should stop that in a big way. Wasn't much of a big deal after picking up over 10" last month.

Just a token 0.02", but it did put me over the 11.00 mark for the month.

I have gotten to the point where just don;t care anymore what he thinks or says. Even spending time mocking him is a waste..

I am curious what your other two are.

Still scarred from that 100 F reading at RDU last October 3.

All signs pointing to a La Nina, which means hello South East Redieg all winter.

Passed mid point for August at noon today with 9.39" to that point. Got another 0.02" today for 9.41".

First day in a while with no rain. Up to 7.92 for the month now, over 2x what I had in all of July. A muggy 78 out there.

Isn't that just Nina climatology?

Peaking in from the SE forum and I see that we are having a forum meltdown 3.67 months before the start of met winter. The sad thing is its not really irrational.

Measurable rain 8 of the last 9 days now. 0.10 so far. Edit: ended up with 0.94. Monthly total is 7.31. Temp down to 74.

Have now had measurable rain on seven of the last eight days, and am approaching 2x my entire July rainfall. I wasn't expecting anything today but a some bonus storms have dropped 0.32". My weekly total is 6.35 with 3.97 coming from the hurricane. Overall my summer rainfall has been very streaky, something like 2/3rd of my total since June 1st has come in only two different weeks, this week and one back in mid June.

I am honestly surprised how Norfolk can be consistently warmer than RDU or KFAY when it is further north and closer to the ocean.

Just hit an inch for the day. First good downpour in what seems like forever.

They propagated almost literally right to my door, and then stopped. I got 0.04" while a few miles away got over an inch. Very frustrating.

Nice line of storms starting to erupt from SW to NE along the I-95 corridor. Should be plenty of instability. Hope they reach me.

I got 0.10" out of this "wet" period. Just missed another nice cell yards, which could have been a good half-incher. Now staring down the barrel of a death ridge. July could be hard on the garden.

Can't make this up. I'm located in the dead zone just north of Wilson.