cbmclean

Well, base don the recent posts, there is nothing to talk about.

I didn't realize you had surpassed the median. That's good I guess. A challenging year to classify. Sneakily not bad numbers wise at least for many of you guys, but mostly unsatisfying.

How are you doing with your seasonal totals? Are you going to creep your way to the median?

I apologize if this has already been posted here today. Hat tip to Solak in the SE forum NWS bulletin saying that full release of FV3 delayed. Among other things, the cold/snow biases are being investigated. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

Ah, southern Wake screwjob. Cold Rain will be happy.

Thank you.

I appreciate your time. So when people talk about NS or SS shortwaves, they are referring to areas of elevated vorticity? And phasing is when areas of elevated vorticity from north and south approach each other and merge?

I hate to go all newbie here but does any on want to accept the challenge of trying to take 30 seconds to educate me a bit about how to interpret this image? I understand the concepts of geopotential height and vorticity. But how do you recognize the shortwave? How do you pick out the northern and southern streams. What is phasing?

Him and his dang snow shields.

Yep. Just happy to see the possibility at this stage.

Subfreezing 850's down to Mexico, but of course cold rain form eastern NC.

MA folks worried about suppression as shown on GEFS. Often a good sign for us.

Oh dear. I don't want to get tarred, feathered and ridden out of the forum.

Uh oh. Gonna make PSU break out a can of Modoki-definition whup a$$

Well, 19 samples is too small to make definitive judgements, but anecdotally, it sometimes seems like what you might call weather "regimes" or "patterns of patterns" seem to have a wavelength of 1 to 3 months. So for you guys, late January and February seem to be your snow moneymakers, so if you are having a March which is in any way conducive to snow, then perhaps that means that there is a better than average chance that late Jan and Feb were warm. Conversely, when you have a good Jan and Feb, it may be more likely that March will be warm Or it could just be random chance.

I'm dreaming of March 1960, when everybody got flush. Mere mention of that month makes many SE weenies salivate uncontrollably.

Did someone call?

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960. Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

Does such a bizarre Nino/Nina hybrid have any precedent in the historical record?

He has become an Unperson!!

Anyone know what happened to BobChill?

Maybe the SER would be your friend in this situation.

So does he doesn't deny global warming per se, just the anthropogenic part?

How did the MA fare during that seminal event? Nothing but rain in Eastern NC but the mountains got walloped. My wife lived near Asheville at the time and she was out of school for like two weeks.

It has certainly been a dominant force this decade. I am hoping that it is related to the whatever is causing the almost comical inability of the -NAO to go negative in met winter. That is known to be streaky, so perhaps if that flips, the SER will take a decade-long vacation. Of course, I am just grasping at straws now.