cbmclean

I assumed North Balti Zen was being tongue-in-cheek. It was made abundantly clear that PSU did not consider that outcome to be likely.

No, Jacksonville does see a few flakes once a decade or so, more like Miami.

I actually despise working from home. I am unable to do half of what I need to, and the half I can technically do online is much less efficient because of network issues and difficulties in communicating with coworkers. I go in as often as possible.

That's actually the part of meteorology that really interests me. I find cyclogensis, precipitation, winds speeds, only mildly interesting, but I am fascinated by temperature. Unfortunately there just isn't a whole lot of easily available information out there beyond the simplistic guidelines we have just been discussing. I need to find a text book on "Atmospheric temperature patterns and 500 MB analysis".

That makes perfect sense, but the plots posted by PSU showed the Euro depicting a negative average 500 MB anomaly in the eastern conus while simultaneously having a positive 2m temp anomaly. I am specifically referring just to those two plots. Anyway I realize its probably related to factors well beyond my knowledge at this time. And I am hoping it doesn't come true.

Thanks for the input. I have been very frustrated by the lack of available information about the more complex relationship between geopotential height anomalies and temp anomalies. All the information online is just "areas under negative gph anomalies tend to be cool, areas under positive gph anomalies tend to be warm" and leave it at that. Obviously the crux of the matter is in the "tends" part. it's obviously not a 1-to-1 relationship. But what is the actual relationship?

I want to make it clear that I don't think I'm smarter than the physics of the model. I'm just perplexed by the complexity of the relationship between 500 mb anomalies and temperature anomalies. The simplistic relationship that is taught to newbies is that low geopotential heights generally equate to low temps. Obviously it must be more complex than that.

Is there a "positive feedback loop" for cutters and warmth? If a storm cuts and pulls up a lot of warmth, does it tend to act to reinforce the baroclinic gradient being too far west for our liking?

Well, I was referring to the discussion we were having about the disconnect between the advertised H5 pattern shown for days 15 -22 on the latest Euro weeklies versus the advertised 2m temp anomalies for the same time. So according to that model we will have a 7 day period with an negative average 500 MB anomaly yet we will simultaneously have a positive 2 m temp anomaly. How is that physically possible?

OK, so atmospheric physics questions: how is it physically possible for a region to have a sustained period of below normal 500 MB heights yet also have above normal temps over the same period? As I have mentioned elsewhere I do not have a strong background in meteorology or any serious model chops but I have read a fair bit and have seen it stated over and over in explanations that the geopotential height can be considered as a proxy for the average temperature for the parcel of air between the surface and the height level. So cooler parcels mean lower heights, and vice versa. How can we have low geopotential heights for a long period of time yet have warm temperatures in that parcel of air?

So what is the difference between "high heights", a 'ridge" and a "block"? I am not a met or even a serious weenie but I have a pretty strong math/science background so feel free to include technical details in a response (if you fee like it; I know red tags often have better things to do then respond to novice requests).

Take it from a lifelong North Carolinian; he's right.

I think that that is completely reasonable, but even if it were to occur I think there is a chance that something more complex than simply a warmer base state may be involved. I mean, it's not as if the who NH is warm. Incredibly almost the entirety of Russia, from the Finish border to the Pacific is well below normal. SOMETHING seems to be keeping the cold air completely shifted to Eurasia, which to me is a different situation than there just not being any cold.

All humor aside, what is the mechanism of what is going on? I see a big gulf of Alaska vortex. Does that also flood our source regions with mild pacific air as well? Is that the cause of this monstrosity?

Where are you able to see that data?

An interesting an informative article about SSW events. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-major-winter-warming-watch-january-2021-fa/

That's not even cold to boot Better than warm anomalies. Note also the extensive cold anomalies in Siberia, which is on top of their already frigid averages at this time of year. Residents of Verhoyansk might have to ditch the windbreaker and put on a heavy coat.

So is there a consensus that that is what happened in 2019? I have heard that theory discussed, but as with so much strat stuff, there is so few definite conclusions that I see.

I keep seeing tweets posted here from breathless stratosphere junkies. What is the actual status? Is it in process now? Is it imminent? is it all just a figment of their imaginations?

Is that unusual? Most of the stuff I read mentions the wavenumber typically goes from 2 - 7.

What is "wave 1"?

I have lurked here for several years. The SE is obviously my home forum but I come here because the analysis is superior and as far as the hemispheric pattern, many of the factors that affect us are the same. Anyway, I have read many of your previous posts about teaching and I have been wondering how remote learning was working for your students. I know this should be in the banter thread but since it came up here and there wasn't much else going on I didn't feel it was too much a sin to ask the question here.

I am most directly interested in cold in and of itself. I love snow but I have lived in North Carolina all of my life so I have had to learn to be satisfied with a sloppy 2 inches a year if I am lucky. So I love cold and dry almost as much as snow (I had a good Christmas). That being said I am interested in understanding if there are multiple different ways to succeed or fail with regards to cold anomalies in the eastern CONUS. For example, I know that there are at least two distinguishable Pacific doom patterns which suck for cold in the east. One is the Alaska vortex. Another is the massive Aleutians ridge. Are there multiple distinguishable "good" Pacific patterns as well, or are they all really variations on the theme of a +EPO ridge?

The Atlantic High Latitudes are looking better than years past that is true. But for the foreseeable future the guidance suggest that the Pacific will vary between "Meh" at best to "Ugly" at worst. In addition; the relative warmth in our normal source regions (northern Canada) means that there won't be much cold to work with in general.

Are you bitterly pointing the fact that the good look is perpetually 10+ days away? Or are you seriously pointing to this a potential source for optimism (or at least muted pessimism). Sorry but its hard to tell without voice inflection or body language.