cbmclean

LOL. I'm almost embarrassed to say, but I would say between 1 and 2 inches, probably closer to 1. I am east of Raleigh in the central coastal plain. I would say that maybe one out of every three years we will have a notable event (2 - 4), one out of three years we'll just get a car topper or two, and one out of three years we get bupkis except maybe some flurries and a few sleet pellets. Of course I tend to root for more suppression than you guys. Those times when you guys are like "man its just cold and dry" can be good times in my area. I am also a cold lover in general, I don't necessarily have to have snow to be happy, which is good based on the stats I just mentioned.,

Yes it is. I hang out here because the level of meteorological knowledge and analysis is superior to my home thread. The large-scale pattern drivers are in many cases similar enough between our two regions to allow me to get significant benefit. I try to stay out of the way and keep most of my posts on the banter thread. Especially in storm mode.

This is actually a serious question. Can anyone remember off the top of their head when good pattern was reliably and consistently identified a really long ways out? To me it seems like when a good pattern does materialize it seems to sneak up in the medium range from what looked mediocre. Or else it will be glimpsesd intermittently from long range by one of the models or the other, but there will be a ton of waffling back and forth and a model war that keeps you in suspense the whole time. Does any one remember a time where the major models all consistently agreed about how wonderful it would be, and then by golly it came to fruition?

I actually think it would be better for my mental health if I didn't obsessively follow this thread. But I don't have the willpower to stay away, even when we're in a lights out pattern.

Wow that model war didn't take long.

Newbie question: what does "progressive" mean in terms of model bias? I know progressive as the opposite of a blocked flow.

I guess my question is why does somebody spend 10s of millions of dollars yearly maintaining a useless model? Edit: I guess the simple answer is they do not consider it useless, but still, seems obvious to everybody on here.

Umm, infamy is a bad thing, right?

January 2017?

Please don't taunt the torch.

I was mentioning my confusion at the continued existence of the NAVGEM in the main thread and someone mentioned "hurricanes" as the answer. Do you have any background in its intended purpose? I was surprised to learn that the NAVGEM only came online back in 2013.

I was reading a book about the models yesterday and a I was thinking why on earth does the U.S. Navy feel the need to continue to maintain the NAVGEM when an apprently superior model is already produced by the US Govt and is available for free? Is there some special use that the NAVGEM is particularly good for?

Well perhaps there is a small glimmer of hope then.

In all seriousness, don't try too hard. You were one of the first, if not the first, to start talking about the puke. Nobody wanted to hear it then . Keep on calling it like you see it. No matter how it spooks us.

I personally hate nice weather in winter. For example, today in NC, it was upper 60's, but it was really dark gloomy and rainy, so not so bad. Since becoming a parent, I have become painfully aware that it is much nicer to have the kids run off energy outside then be cooked up all day though.

Really, I honestly don't remember this. Can you remember some specific instances?

EPS certainly sniffed out the looming funk earlier so I hate to have to root against it.

Perhaps we have hit rock bottom and can begin the long climb out of the abyss (in terms of modeling).

I would't get too invested. This one is so marginal it's in a completely different book.

I hear there's opening the west coast for a de-troughifiier, especially in the San Diego area.

I'm not really familiar with Maryland Geography. Does Parrs ridge have good climatology?

January 7, 2017, a post that will live in history. One of my all-time favorite posts. I think my favorite line is "Pink areas on a p-type map indicate slightly colder rain than the green areas."

Link to weekly MJO discussion. New one should be out tomorrow. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

So what is the "IOD"? I have never heard of it before this year but now I have seen it mentioned several times.

The models all seem to think it is in the Indian Ocean right now, right on the border between zones 2 and 3.