cbmclean

Based on all the information you have at your disposal, together with your years of experience, what is your conclusion about the probability of the Doom pattern verifying at approximately the level of doom being depicted now? For example, in the CPC long 1 - 7 and 8 - 14 day out looks, they assign a measure of confidence ranging from 1 - 5 based on numerous factors

Looking at tropical tidbits, I only see the EPS out to 240. But I saw on Wikipedia that it goes out to 15 days, and I think I have seen others discuss the bad pattern showign up in the EPS post-240. Does TT only have access to truncated amounts of EPS data?

Well I see that the GEFS is up to its old tricks, offering us a glimmer of hope. Sometimes I think it and the EPS are sentient and play a "good model, bad model" routine.

Thanks. The TT color scheme makes it much less obvious. I was also expecting a tighter gradient.

As I mentioned I am embarking on the process of trying to seriously lead to read the charts. I was looking at the 12z EPS at 240 and could not see a TPV at all. Am I missing it? Got a new tablet and I haven't yet figured how to copy and paste images or I would share it.I By the way what site do you use for model output?

Taking a break from your break?

I was thinking that the ice would still be much thinner than normal there and thus subject to higher heat flux from the water. Apparently not enough to maintain a ridge.

Summary of MA thread feeling for today: Apocalyptically bad pattern incoming. Not only is it horrible, it is the kind of pattern which tends to get dug in for months at a time. Strong Objective-based evidence for fearing for all of January.

Is there anyplace online where EPS 2m temp anomalies are freely available?

So are we heading to what they would classify as an Arctic Low?

Hmm. That is very disturbing and disappointing. Hard enough to sift through the data as it is without charlatans making it harder.

Actually I am looking forward to our annual March -NAO outbreak which gets us flurries.

Very quick summary of MA forum discussion today: For the foreseeable future pretty much zero chance of SE snow (outside of high terrain). Fairly decent shot of a cool/dry shot or two. In the very long range, models currently advertising a George Costanza pattern (ie the exact opposite of everything that is desirable).

My averages in January are approximately 50/30. Almost every year we have at least a couple of segments with consecutive 70+ days. By "cold" for me I really just mean extended periods of say 45/27 and below.

Yes that is very helpful thanks. Wouldn't it be nice if that anomalous warm bubble actually verified a couple of thousand miles east but was still as persistent?

Well, I am in Eastern NC, so everything you say about the rarity of good patterns is magnified for us to the nth degree. As a matter of fact there aren't any "good" patterns for snow IMBY, there are just "less bad patterns". It still takes a fluke for me to see anything. That in mind, I actually "chase" cold more than snow. And it still seems like anomalously warm patterns are picked up more consistently at longer lead times trhan anomalously cold patters. Again I have absolutely zero data to support that.

I finally have time to start seriously learning how to interpret 500 HP charts. Before you take your break, can you explain the negative downstream effects of the ridge north of Hawaii?

I actually have a working theory about it. The GFS/GEFS and Canadian/GEPS have long been noted to have cold bias in the LR. So then you can hypothesize that if they are consistently seeing a crappy pattern in the LR, then that means there must be a VERY strong warm signal in reality. An interesting hypothesis that I would love to investigate after I win the lottery.

So true. You can either laugh or cry...or move to Maine as someone suggested.

For some reason my perception is that crappy patterns tend to verify better in the LR than good ones. Not sure if there is any objective reality to that or if it is just selection bias. Guess what I am trying to say is, I am still worried.

We are in the middle of a lights-out, Pac puke pattern which was foreseen by the EPS two weeks ago. The GEFS/GEPS caught on shortly thereafter. They were 100% on target 10+ days out. So I have to disagree with your assessment.

Interestingly, the NW third or so of NC (north and west of I-40/85) has been on a bit of streak the last 3 years or so. I'd say quite a few places are maybe 150% climo in that region for the last 3 years. I may have hit climo on December 9 of last year (no boos please) even though I don't think I saw another flake the rest of the winter. Also the difference between mean climo and median climo may be even more important for us than for you guys. Lots of years in the lowlands get nothing but a trace, but the occasional 4 - 12" events can really skew the mean.

Alright looks like it's time to recancel January. Might be re-uncanceled tomorrow. Or not.

wait what?

No.