cbmclean

Continuing my little 18z GEFS temp forecast monitoring project for MBY. Overall not much change from yesterday's 18Z. I did note an improved temperature profile in Southern Canada which is a little encouraging.

I'm getting the urge to see more that what Tropical Tidbits has to offer so am considering dipping my toe into a pay sight. My big interest right now is temperature forecasts. I would love to be able to see the temperature spread across the various ensemble members. Anyone have any recommendations for pay sites? I mean Weatherbell is the big one I know. Just interested in knowing if there are any other good options available for temperature stuff.

Interesting. The December pattern is quite different in the western cons and in the west Pac.

Wait I thought it was a good thing. Jeez I can't keep up.

Several options 1. Slightly reduce solar output. 2. Slightly increase the earth's orbital distance. 3. Cause the collapse of industrial civilization and wait a few centuries. Seriously, there are smart people who feel that the consistently fast Pac jet is a consequence of the "elephant in the room which shall not be discussed in this thread". Which should make your blood run cold (or hot) because it might mean that we will be stuck with it for the foreseeable future. Furthermore it preferentially suck in North America because it causes all the cold air to stick to Eurasia and floods us with Pac puke.

Quick question: can anyone actually remember the last sustained good North Pacific pattern? So far this year it has been the poop on our shoe. It was a raging fire last year and also the year before that. I know the first weak of January 2018 was very cold here so I am presuming we had a good Pacific then, but can't remember anything else since 2013 - 2014.

Excellent graphics. Thanks for the post. What exactly is the ideal Pacific pattern for SE snow? I know that a big EPO ridge can lead to some nice cold shots, but I have also heard they tend to be cold and dry followed by warm ups when SWs come through

Thanks.

rimshot.

I have started a little project to keep track of the the GEFS ensemble mean temperature predictions in MBY. For every daily run at 18z, I am entering the 2m temp prediction for each 24 hours thereafter (as taken from TT). I noticed a sharp warming in the predicted temps for the 6 - 10 day period between 18z yesterday and 18z today. This matches BAMWx post someone posted a few hours ago. Can anyone comment on the EPS temp profile form the 12z run? Is it seeing any nice cold?

Who is RR?

All of them I suspect.

Is it just me or are the models really flip-flopping on that EPO ridge? Seems like every other run its either gone or raging.

At we work so cant do detailed look. How is the source region looking over the next 10 day in general on guidance?

So not just one random bad run. That is concerning. What does euro/EPS have to say?

Snow is the opium of the people... at least the people on this board. And we are in withdrawal.

After being in the forum equivalent of Edvard Munch's The Scream the last few days, we suddenly have hope again. I think that's just what the weather wants. Anyone ever read this story? http://fullreads.com/horror/the-torture-of-hope/

I love how in Tennessee, kentucky, Indiana and Ohio it shows rain with sub 522 dm thicknesses. That's...special.

Browns advancing in playoffs. -NAO/-AO producing no snow. Possible connection?

I should clarify: realistic discrete improvements.

Any particular discrete improvements in the modeling within Day 10 that you would love to see?

Assuming of course that this happens. What is your current take on that? Looking at the 18Z GEFS I see a nice cool shot (at 850 MB at least) after the 16th, then the cold really gathers in NW Canada. Although we are by no means torching, its just seasonal to coolish by day 16.

We need to set a rotation schedule for someone to check on Ji at least daily.

Thanks. This is a start at least. Now we need a mechanism to get this moving east.

Well if snow is a unicorn now, we have two choices: we can pack it in or we can become unicorn hunters. It seems likely that hunting for discrete threats is pointless until and unless the NA thermal profile changes. What is the status of that? TT is taking forever to finish loading the 18Z GEFS. Is the Canadian torch still scheduled for demolition? Has anyone seen on the the pay sites yet?