cbmclean

Kind of surprising that The Germans can't put out a better model. Maybe all of their A-team work on the Euro.

I screwed up on my math, they would only need one 2-pointer.

I don't think it was as idiotic as it seems. They were down by 22, so they needed three TDs with two 2 pters. Kicking the singleton now doesn't change that it, just delays the inevitable. In fact, they might be more likely to make the two pointer now it now when they are less tired. ETA: Never mind, I had a brain fart, down 22 means they only need one 2 pointer.

As a Dolphins fans, I hated the Bills and man that comeback stung. It started very soon after halftime though. Time is really an enemy right for the Ravens right now.

According to ESPN, Tennessee's win probability just dropped from 99% to 98.1%

Well, a comeback has to start somewhere.

I'm not a Raven's fan, but I honestly feel for you guys tonight. It really sucks to see a special season end due to one bad game. (well unless it is the 2007 Patriots).

It doesn't always happen, but it seems to occur a lot more than I would expect statistically, where a team dominates in the regular season, has a first round bye and comes in a just lays a egg in their first play-off game.

I have am beginning to suspect that the Pacific Doom Blob achieved sentience some time last week and has determined that the most effective way to feed off of our tears it to temporarily lay low and let the models depict a false pattern shift only to pop up at the last minute to crush our dreams. It's called torture by hope.

Did you mean p2/p13?

As I was joking about up in your thread, we are more disturbed by the 12z op than we are enthused by the 12z gefs. We are like beaten dogs.

We would be excited but we are too busy jumping off the cliff due to the 12z GFS.

I freely admit to being one of the spook-ees I did not fully comprehend the nature of the duration caveat. I though the pattern was such that when it reached full development, it always stuck around. Although in my defense, that post did have a pre-post which advertised it as " the least popular post in americanwx history. "

I love cold, any way, any place, any how. Cold with moisture is a bonus.

I was out of circulation on the GEFS the last few days, other than what people were posting. Did it fully cave?

I prefer that way to the alternative where I am loosing sleep because I'm emotionally disturbed by the torch. Realistically, not a good look for the SE for frozen, but I will take dry cold shots over Pacific Doom Blob any day.

Was it 2010? I remember a year around then when the NAO/AO was so persistently in our favor that it kept funneling warm air up in eastern Canada while I had record cold. Not sure what was happening in NW Canada at that time. I think that was like the grand finale of good AO/NAO blocking it has been almost universally crappy since then (with a few exceptions).

Well we settle in for our long winter's shut-out nap. So as others have noted we are actually in the midst of a pattern change. Unfortunately it's changing between abominable to execrable. So the general consensus is that while the Pac Puke (PP) is horrible, the Pacific Doom Blob (PDB) is even worse. For the sake of debate I ask: is it really worse? Certainly they both completely destroy snow chances for the MA (we won't even mention my home area). BUT with the PDB, at least there is a trough in the west and a tendency for decent cold to exist in NW Canada. Whereas the PP as we know completely scours all semblance of cold out of the entire continent. So one might expect that the PDB might be easier to recover from because a shuffle could at least theoretically dislodge the cold our way. As for persistence I'm not sure which way to grade it. We all know that if you even get a taste of the Pac Puke it knocks you out for a week, minimum, and those AK vortexes can get embedded as ticks. PSU has shown that IF the PDB sets up shop for an extended period of time, it never leaves, but we don't have the data to see how often it might set up for "only" 10 days, vs a whole month. Any thoughts?

Nice haul for an event that had so many flaws. What is your total for the season?

A cold Canada may or may not have any impact here. I mean I like seeing it just because I like the inherent idea of cold anywhere, but there have been winters where the cold stayed completely bottled up in there. I haven't seen any evidence of the MJO going into the cold phases. Both the GEFS and EPS seem to have it headed to the COD, which is certainly better than currently, but not particularly good.

Yikes that is stiff.

If the wind has freshened up, then that will mix the boundary layer at the surface which has been radiatively cooling.

Got down to 30.2 this morning, so at least I will have one light freeze on the books. Also the windshield was frosted over. Can you consider that frozen precipitation?

Wasn't there a guy here who lived in that far south corner. That map must make him physically ill.

How is that physically possible? I am down to 33 in eastern NC. Have the clouds already rolled in for you?