cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look? I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how? As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories. Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics.
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You're gonna need a bigger boat.
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Sigh; GFS on an island. Can it score a coup?
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Chuck, I have to ask where you get your plots. Its like you tap directly into the GFS mainframe or something.
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Hello Pac Puke, my old friend...
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I always thought that theove was a bad idea for them. I guess the siren song of the $$$ was too much to resist.
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Hope springs eternal.
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I have started following 3 of the twitterati lately who seem knowledgeable and not too hypish: Griteater, Webberweather, and Dr. Simon Lee. Grit and Webber still see some reason for hope. Dr Lee seems neutral right now.
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I believe it was Dec 30th of 2019 when PSU made his famous post. It was a doozy, and it turned out to be 100% accurate. I have bad dreams about that post.
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Do I sense it's getting close to a "towel time" post?
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@WxWatcher007 Need to come out of retirement for a special event.
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The GEFS just got mean today. The "Alaskan Ridge" signal greatly diminished since yesterday. A majority of the members banking on continued domination of the "Arctic Low" regime, which is the mess we are in right now. https://simonleewx.com/gefs-35-day-north-american-regimes/
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Oh crap.
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Only the Sith deal in absolutes. With the exception of @H2O. We can all be certain that he will never see snow again.
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Latest MJO update from CPC is out and it fits in disturbingly well PSU's concern. See slide 2 last bullet • While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.
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Maybe that's where we are now? Everything has to be exactly perfect, or no shot. That's not just being a random downer. Its a possibility that should be kept in mind.
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But +AO/+NAO. Can't win, even in fantasy land.
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Been reading several items about wanting a Pacific jet extension to help shake up the NPac ridge. I was thinking wasn't it last year that we were desperately hoping for the jet to retract so we could shake off the Pac puke? So an extended jet is sometimes good and sometimes bad? Anyone with more knowledge have any insight?
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Well Chuck nailed the super ----------------- PNA weeks in advance, so maybe he's on to something here?
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I was bad this year so I go a North Pacific ridge in my stocking.
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We can start a GoFundMe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection
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All it would take is some minor geoengineering. If we want more snow, maybe w can all chip in and buy a few trillion tons of sulfur dioxide to throw into the atmosphere or seed the ocean with iron.
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What is "P2" and "LC2"?
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Thank you for the info. I see that really nice EPO ridge almost to the pole. So I know that is generally positive as far as cold. I have heard it doesn't really help if the troughiness is tended to the west.
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Haven't seen much mention of the EPS lately. I was assuming it was degrading the same way.
