cbmclean

LONG LONG LONG term but I'll just leave this here. Somebody make sure that Maestrobjwa doesn't see this. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

I blame PSU personally. If he hadn't have made that infamous post back in late December, this never would have happened.

As much as I love snow, cold and the outdoors, I would like to get into skiing. But there are several factors against me 1. I hate looking like an idiot. 2. I hate getting in other people's way. 3. I really hating looking like an idiot and getting in other people's way and paying a small fortune to do it. 4. My wife despises cold. So I would need a to find a place with facilities dedicated to teaching adults who have absolutely no knowledge/experience. I'm sure they exist but it is probably 10x more expensive than even the already expensive normal places. And even if I could find an affordable one, I wouldn't be able to go because the boss would just laugh at my suggestion.

Warning: the person who runs this site that I am linking to appears to be dedicated to AGW skepticism/denial. I post it because it has some interesting discussion of the hypothesis that I have alluded to previously about reduced latitudinal temp gradients causing more blocking. Apparently the hypothesis is being questioned by new studies. http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/global-confusion-turns-out-global-warming-doesnt-cause-wandering-jet-stream-extreme-weather/ Just ignore the constant carping at the "stupidity" of climate scientists.

Wow, I hadn't heard anything about this. But apparently the Summit station in Greenland may have hit an all time record low this winter. I guess the fruits of our friend the PV.

The sequel to the BobChill storm is the PSU rainstorm.

I will gladly take some extra snow, but I am really rooting for our comrades in the MA to score something.

Things are getting out of hand. I just saw reports on the news that the +AO was sighted mugging little old ladies in Philly and stealing ice out of people's freezers.

I found it: Global Wind Oscillation.

Just started learning about GLAAM. What is GWO?

I'm also really curious what driving force the seasonal dynamic models were seeing to make their +AO/NAO predictions. On a larger note, a few years ago I saw some speculation that AGW would lead to a weaker polar jet thus more -NAO/AO episodes. The idea was that the strength of the polar jet is strongly affected by the latitudinal temperature gradient. As that gradient goes down with polar warming, the mean strength of the polar jet would also go down. It made sense to me. But obviously it didn't work out that way this year. Perhaps there is another forcing which is overwhelming it (maritime continent warm pool perhaps) or maybe it was just pure random chance. But the fact that the seasonal models picked up on it implies there is a non-random forcing element involved.

You know, it is very frustrating that the second half of December was mostly negative, but it was completely ruined by the AK vortex.

That's interesting, I don;t think I have ever heard of a TRIPLE phase. So there's the SS, NS and what's the third stream?

Its good to find a purpose in life.

Wow, I have a hard time believing that is the same Jebman By the way, didn't the cold and moisture finally line up for you guys later in February?

I would love to read it. Any idea which month it was?

He's been so relentlessly positive in the posts I have seen I have a hard time imagining him ranting.

When you look at the pool of really bad years do you note any pattern for the next year. I remember us discussing a few multi-year stretches. Given the relative rarity of years this bad, I was wondering if there wasn't an elevated chance of another really bad year following.

I am assuming you meant "We know so little"? I think we know quite a bit. We know that snow is extremely hard to come by in a pattern like this, but obviously not impossible. My area just got lucky today, that is all. I feel grateful and a bit refreshed. Still looking forward to next year (unless its a nina).

Its a pretty low bar, but I'll take it.

Still holding at 33 F. If I could have had one degree, I could have had 6 inches.

Oh come on, no trolling.

Well, I didn't get blanked this year. I am grateful for that.

Checking his garbage cans ain't happening?

Shortening wavelengths, cold dump combined with warm ocean waters leading to enormous baroclinic potential. Could be shenanigans.