cbmclean

I am unsure how to interpret this chart. Can you help?

Well I guess that DT was really serious when he said he was packing his toys and heading home, not a peep from him in some time.

You know as long as we are talking about Weenie fantasies, I think I'd rather have this dream scenario on Christmas Eve, or maybe even Dec 23rd. I think I enjoy the lead up to Christmas more than Christmas itself.

Please excuse the novice question, but what is "the benchmark"?

Only one trip to Lowes? A tip of the hat to you then. Usually takes me at least three trips to get everything I need.

Who are the redskins?

It would be the third year in a row. And both previous years the PacPuke vortex was sniffed out a long ways in advance.

You talking ensemble mean?

Who is CWG?

I'd rather it look good in the ultra-long range than bad. I look at it this way: given the known model biases towards cold in the long range, if the long range looks good, it might turn out good, it might turn out bad, it might turn out average. If the long range looks warm, that is indicative of a strong warm signal. Of course I'm just referring to consistent runs that move forward in time. Plenty of times the ultra-long ranges just flip back and forth randomly; just NWP noise.

I have been deliberately staying away from the mid-to-long range forum because reality was just too gloomy, but I popped in today and say that someone had secretly inserted some hope. Will this be the third straight early December tease, to be immediately followed by the Mid December Pac Puke, to be followed by January - March east conus ridge? There are already signs of the MJO gearing up for its winter-long promenade through phases 4 - 6. (Clarification note: When I say the early part of last December "teased" I mean that in relative terms. It was normal to very slightly cool, which promised hopes of weather which didn't suck. Obviously those promises were unfulfilled).

9.71 inches for the even event here in Wilson on my pws. Extensive looding Schools closed today and tomorrow.

A torrential downpour this afternoon; 5.65" so far today and still raining.

For the PNA to trend back towards 0 would be a big win. The NAO/AO are interesting. In both cases the control looks very promising towards the end of the month, but you can see that in both cases the ensemble means are in + territory. That tells me that there is a minority of members that are predicting solid negative departures, but the majority of the members are positive. Does anyone know what the meaning of the thicker blue bar in the middle of the spread lines. Is that like the 25 - 75th percentile?

We're past panic. Now its just acceptance and on to 2021-2022.

Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing. Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16. Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

The Pacific Doom Blob which haunted us all last winter is back like a horror movie villain. It just won't die.

Torrential downpour yielded 1.78". It had been a little dry lately but this should stop that in a big way. Wasn't much of a big deal after picking up over 10" last month.

Just a token 0.02", but it did put me over the 11.00 mark for the month.

I have gotten to the point where just don;t care anymore what he thinks or says. Even spending time mocking him is a waste..

I am curious what your other two are.

Still scarred from that 100 F reading at RDU last October 3.

All signs pointing to a La Nina, which means hello South East Redieg all winter.

Passed mid point for August at noon today with 9.39" to that point. Got another 0.02" today for 9.41".

First day in a while with no rain. Up to 7.92 for the month now, over 2x what I had in all of July. A muggy 78 out there.