cbmclean

Excellent graphics. Thanks for the post. What exactly is the ideal Pacific pattern for SE snow? I know that a big EPO ridge can lead to some nice cold shots, but I have also heard they tend to be cold and dry followed by warm ups when SWs come through

Thanks.

rimshot.

I have started a little project to keep track of the the GEFS ensemble mean temperature predictions in MBY. For every daily run at 18z, I am entering the 2m temp prediction for each 24 hours thereafter (as taken from TT). I noticed a sharp warming in the predicted temps for the 6 - 10 day period between 18z yesterday and 18z today. This matches BAMWx post someone posted a few hours ago. Can anyone comment on the EPS temp profile form the 12z run? Is it seeing any nice cold?

Who is RR?

All of them I suspect.

Is it just me or are the models really flip-flopping on that EPO ridge? Seems like every other run its either gone or raging.

At we work so cant do detailed look. How is the source region looking over the next 10 day in general on guidance?

So not just one random bad run. That is concerning. What does euro/EPS have to say?

Snow is the opium of the people... at least the people on this board. And we are in withdrawal.

After being in the forum equivalent of Edvard Munch's The Scream the last few days, we suddenly have hope again. I think that's just what the weather wants. Anyone ever read this story? http://fullreads.com/horror/the-torture-of-hope/

I love how in Tennessee, kentucky, Indiana and Ohio it shows rain with sub 522 dm thicknesses. That's...special.

Browns advancing in playoffs. -NAO/-AO producing no snow. Possible connection?

I should clarify: realistic discrete improvements.

Any particular discrete improvements in the modeling within Day 10 that you would love to see?

Assuming of course that this happens. What is your current take on that? Looking at the 18Z GEFS I see a nice cool shot (at 850 MB at least) after the 16th, then the cold really gathers in NW Canada. Although we are by no means torching, its just seasonal to coolish by day 16.

We need to set a rotation schedule for someone to check on Ji at least daily.

Thanks. This is a start at least. Now we need a mechanism to get this moving east.

Well if snow is a unicorn now, we have two choices: we can pack it in or we can become unicorn hunters. It seems likely that hunting for discrete threats is pointless until and unless the NA thermal profile changes. What is the status of that? TT is taking forever to finish loading the 18Z GEFS. Is the Canadian torch still scheduled for demolition? Has anyone seen on the the pay sites yet?

All right then I think that just about sums it up. If these suspicions are correct, then we have tough times ahead of us as snow lovers in eastern NA.

Fair enough. So let's analyze why sufficient cold air has not been available. First suspect is of course the NPAC vortex. But as PSU has pointed out, that vortex has been present in past analogs that have been "cold enough". What's different now? Well the elephant in the room is the warmer base state of course, which can explain a lot. But gosh darn it, its not like there hasn't been any cold anomalies in the NH. It's just all been stuck in Eurasia. So that is what I want to understand? WHY has it been stuck in Eurasia?

Kind of a rhetorical/philosophical question, but we're in between model runs so why not: can you really call it a decent/good pattern if there is not enough cold air to sustain widespread snow? The presence or absence of cold air isn't just a random factor, it's a facet of the overall NH pattern. And I completely understand what you have posted several times about much of the MA historical snow coming in similar patterns in the past but clearly those patterns had cold enough air and this one has not, at least up to this point. So I think it is fair to call it a "bad" pattern.

I love it when the fullback makes a catch.

Boo hiss

Trying to understand cyclogenesis better. If anyone else on here like me who knows very little about it, I found a very nice youtube video discussing the topic. with really nice 3D diagrams that make terms like "cold conveyor belt" make more sense to the layman.