cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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So I put a certain person on ignore and I started noticing them pop up in my feed again. I thought maybe there was a site policy where ignore expires after a certain time or something. So I went to re-ignore and I see that he is still plainly shown as on my ignore list. Anybody have any idea what is up?
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Isn't the CMC the #2 model after the euro as far as verification scores? I mean they are all useless at 240 hrs, but doesn't seem like there's any reason to discount the CMC more vs the GFS.
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The NPAC low has disappeared? Chuck beware.
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My general policy is to always assume that the warmest model is correct. Therefore, I believe the latest long-range GFS.
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All it took was the next op run.
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The answer is: maybe. Climate is hypothesized to be chaotic to a certain degree, although obviously on a different time scale than weather. Abrupt tipping points are possible in both chaotic and non-chaotic systems but I suspect systems with significant chaotic characteristics may be more prone.
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Not if the signal degrades.
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He is actually from very near my hometown of Hope Mills, NC which is in the "mid-south-eastern" portion of NC if that makes any sense. Our snow climatology is...poor. I believe he lives in New Mexico now. He seems to revel in torches for the entire east coast; not sure what caused that grudge.
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Based on those pictures it does not seem very explosive. In order to significantly impact weather/climate the ash/SO2/water vapor has to be propelled high into the atmosphere.
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Is there a place where you can get info on individual GEFS members easily. Since it is an NCEP product I assume it is free somewhere, but certainly not available on Tropical Tidbits and I am too cheap to spring for WeatherBell (or maybe to timid to ask the wife's permission ).
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Some people do not agree with the very concept of model-based forecasting. The only thing one can do is note it respectfully and move on.
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So the thing is, he is not making any specific predictions per se. Notice the wordings: "may not mean", "you may feel", "favorability/potential". If our hoped for pattern does indeed fail, he will surely crow "I told you so". If there is an epic snowy period, he'll just say: "I said 'may', not 'will'". I'd have more respect if he said something specific like: I predict that the advertised pattern will occur but very little snowfall will result..."
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You offer an ineffable je ne sais quoi which I refer to as Mappiness ETA: And I say that as someone who contributes almost nothing myself.
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An additional 0.45 after midnight for an event total of 4.59.
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They'll be back (said in Terminator voice). Seriously though, if this good period does actually verify and is not just a smokescreen a la 2019, I suspect there will still be inevitable periods where the SIGNAL bounces around and the look degrades. Only shit-the-blind type patterns show up and hour 384 and march unmodified down to hour 0.
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He'll be posting flame emojis until the east coast does in fact get cold/snow.
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Ended with 4.14 yesterday.
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2.38 and counting.
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Long range GEPs looks odd at the end. The NPac low seems to have moved over to the Bering Strait. completely making me think about Chuck's post yesterday about it disappearing.
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Last I heard the GFS was in fourth place for the global 500 HP metric, behind the euro, Canadian and ukmet. Now I'm not sure if that was only talking about the operational or includes their ensemble systems as well. Also not sure if there is any difference in global performance vs NH LR patter in the cold season, which is what we really care about. I wish I had some idea where to get that data easily.
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Since @Ji be asleep on the bus I will fill in: Ah man, you can already see to the backside of the good pattern. A definite degradation from 300 to 360.
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Oh dear, the mood flipped.
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We're always happiest just before the crash
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I'll get excited when I see the jet extension chill a bit.
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Apparently, Jebman is an optimist about snow but a pessimist about rain.
