cbmclean

So is the Pacific Jet retraction cancelled?

Assuming this wave goes down in flames, what is your assessment of general potential in days beyond (d10 -16)?

Anyone know what the Pacific jet is up to? Last I saw it was forecast to significantly retract, which is crucial to our hopes for cold.

Uh oh.

Last year there was a brief period where the modeling consistently advertised a significant improvement from the Pacific Doom Blob regime. I remember distinctly that this modeled improvement started to fall apart jast as the Ravens were losing to Tennessee last year. At the time I was hoping that the negative interpretation of the modelling had a lot to do with the emotions from the game. But alas it was not the case. The look continued to degrade over the next few days and the rest is history. Hopefully we don;t get a redux this year.

Saw tiny snowflakes for about 30 seconds in Wilson.

I wondered why it was so quiet in the main thread. Then I remembered the Ravens are playing.

Wait isn't the "old Para" the current GFS?

I'm a chart guy, so for fun, I plotted the "near DC" 2m temp at 18Z for hours 0 - 384, according to the 18z gfs. Decently chilly for days 7 - 14. Not sure what happens between 336 and 360, but it wasn't pretty.

We need a Canadian Maritimes subforum on here.

Hey I'm the epicenter. I'm all in.

That goes out past where I can see on TT. What does the temp profile look like?

Hey, been waiting for you to show up. Turn those Shields off!!!

Too suppressed even for NC. This panel caught my eye though: 540 line down almost to Miami, and snow breaking out over the gulf stream.

Gotta love this one. 540 line down almost to Miami.

Curious, why is that a "lol"?

Not much going on for at least the next week, unless I missed something new.

Is that good bad or indifferent?

Not angels, but close enough.

Continuing my little 18z GEFS temp forecast monitoring project for MBY. Overall not much change from yesterday's 18Z. I did note an improved temperature profile in Southern Canada which is a little encouraging.

I'm getting the urge to see more that what Tropical Tidbits has to offer so am considering dipping my toe into a pay sight. My big interest right now is temperature forecasts. I would love to be able to see the temperature spread across the various ensemble members. Anyone have any recommendations for pay sites? I mean Weatherbell is the big one I know. Just interested in knowing if there are any other good options available for temperature stuff.

Interesting. The December pattern is quite different in the western cons and in the west Pac.

Wait I thought it was a good thing. Jeez I can't keep up.

Several options 1. Slightly reduce solar output. 2. Slightly increase the earth's orbital distance. 3. Cause the collapse of industrial civilization and wait a few centuries. Seriously, there are smart people who feel that the consistently fast Pac jet is a consequence of the "elephant in the room which shall not be discussed in this thread". Which should make your blood run cold (or hot) because it might mean that we will be stuck with it for the foreseeable future. Furthermore it preferentially suck in North America because it causes all the cold air to stick to Eurasia and floods us with Pac puke.

Quick question: can anyone actually remember the last sustained good North Pacific pattern? So far this year it has been the poop on our shoe. It was a raging fire last year and also the year before that. I know the first weak of January 2018 was very cold here so I am presuming we had a good Pacific then, but can't remember anything else since 2013 - 2014.