cbmclean

The concept of wave breaking is common across many types of wave phenomenon. here is the wiki article about in a general sense for gravity waves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_wave_breaking Rossby waves (our kind of waves in the 500 HP pattern) apparently can also "break", but like you I am not sure what that looks like on a 500 HP plot.

I have to push back on this thought a little. It is my hypothesis based on observations and my own experiences that some people are just intrinsically predisposed to positivity or negativity to varying degrees. I am on the negative side. I have been ever since I was little. I didn't make a decision to be that way. I can't just make it go away by choosing it. I can fight it, and I do, but it is a lifelong struggle. Sometimes I am successful. Often I am not. I suspect many others are the same way. I think it's fair to hope that people who have an easier time being positive have some awareness and consideration for those for whom it is not so easy. At the same time, people who KNOW they are negative need to try and avoid bringing others down with it, because that is not fair either.

It will be interesting to see how much of a recovery we get, if any, once the PDO flips back. But even then I'm not sure how much impact the PDO has on the prevalence of Pac Puke as opposed to -PNA.

The hypothesis is that the hadley cell expansion is an effect of...you know.

Assuming the "Hadley cell jet steroid" hypothesis is correct (seems very plausible but years of research would be needed and not sure any PHD candidates are working on it), getting mad at the Hadley cell for Pac Puke is like force-feeding your kid caffeine and then getting mad when they act wild.

Never mind.

I actually can't tell, are you being overdramatic a la Ji,?

Wait a minute...has your level of knowledge evolved to a point where you can shut off snow when you are out of the area?

Man gotta love that quadrifecta (tetrafecta?) of -PNA, +NAO, +AO, +EPO around 1/25. Other than that teleconnections are great!

As usual, Wikipedia has a detailed write-up, perhaps too detailed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

I wonder in today's base state would such a burger even work anymore?

Webber hyping MJO. Sigh

I have to admit the upcoming Sh!t the blinds pattern has snuck up on me as I was being lazy and not looking at the LR while I have been enjoying the cold. Alas, here we are.. Skipping over the grim 6-10 there does appear to be come hope of renewed -EPO afterword which at least would help with the cold. Not sure where we're going to get the moisture though.

Probably, yes. My question is: why do you care?

Why because it might be dry like Ji mentioned?

I like the +pna/-epo combo.

How many feet for Mt PSU?

Has the STJ been unusually dormant for a Nino? My understanding is that STJ systems are the Nino bread and butter but seems less fruitful than hoped so far.

Technically they weren't burning water per se, just the layer of pollution on TOP of the water. https://www.sciencehistory.org/stories/distillations-pod/the-myth-of-the-cuyahoga-river-fire/

We are approaching the nadir of the morale wave.

That doesn't really satisfy me. An index, any index, be it NAO, AO, EPO, PNA or whatever is a description of an observed pattern of measurements. It is not, in and of itself a mechanistic explanation of WHY the observed pattern is occurring, or why it has certain consequences. And saying that heights in the SW are low because the -PDO is tautological. It's like saying that something is hot because the thermometer has high readings.

Is it really cherry picking? More like turd scooping.

The blue line is the 540 dm height line, and not the better known 540 dm thickness line. The 540 thickness line is well known to approximate line for where it is cold enough to snow, but I have no idea what the 540 height line represents. Anybody else know.

I know you are currently frolicking in VT, but any idea if you got any on MT PsU today?

Optimism and pessimism aside, what are our chances of getting some of that to come east? The -NAO would argue for it, but I'll wait until Chuck approves. I have heard that the EPS is looking nice after MLK day.