cbmclean

Only the Sith deal in absolutes. With the exception of @H2O. We can all be certain that he will never see snow again.

Latest MJO update from CPC is out and it fits in disturbingly well PSU's concern. See slide 2 last bullet • While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS, extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North America.

Maybe that's where we are now? Everything has to be exactly perfect, or no shot. That's not just being a random downer. Its a possibility that should be kept in mind.

But +AO/+NAO. Can't win, even in fantasy land.

Been reading several items about wanting a Pacific jet extension to help shake up the NPac ridge. I was thinking wasn't it last year that we were desperately hoping for the jet to retract so we could shake off the Pac puke? So an extended jet is sometimes good and sometimes bad? Anyone with more knowledge have any insight?

Well Chuck nailed the super ----------------- PNA weeks in advance, so maybe he's on to something here?

I was bad this year so I go a North Pacific ridge in my stocking.

We can start a GoFundMe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection

All it would take is some minor geoengineering. If we want more snow, maybe w can all chip in and buy a few trillion tons of sulfur dioxide to throw into the atmosphere or seed the ocean with iron.

What is "P2" and "LC2"?

Thank you for the info. I see that really nice EPO ridge almost to the pole. So I know that is generally positive as far as cold. I have heard it doesn't really help if the troughiness is tended to the west.

Haven't seen much mention of the EPS lately. I was assuming it was degrading the same way.

Learning moment for me. All I see is a full-latitude ridge. How does that get us (or at least you guys) in a better place.

Just curious why you are not favoring the 6/7 death possibility at this time.

Also got 1.04 in the bucket at my PWS. 2.35 MTD. Going into church today it was still pretty mild, but rainy. Coming out it was much colder.

The Southeastern forum has been essentially dead for the last two years at least, which is why I hang out here. I've learned a lot here, and I hate to see it declining as well. I wish I had more to offer. I have also come to realize that it takes a LOT of work to learn enough for one to make meaningful contribution, so my respect for all those that do.

If you insist, well take it off your hands.

1.02 in Wilson.

Are you trying to jinx us?

Luckily he still has a substantial snow pack left from last year.

NC is where you should go to feel better about Mid Atlantic snow climatology. Take it from one who lives in the NC coastal plain.

Very interesting. Where do you go to make those custom graphs? I know I have done it myself before, but I have forgotten how If I Google NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, I can find a page hosted by the Physical Sciences Laboratory, but it's not obvious how to enter data to form the graphs.

Per the global correlation charts I have been seeing, the Euro is still the king, with the CMC in second place. It would be really interesting to see if there is any data showing who scores best on certain specific smaller scales, such as eastern North America.

I was under the impression that Nina base state is west trough, east ridge.

That is something you have mentioned previously. I think you speculated that perhaps its the case that the effect of the "good" MJO phases are muted/non-existent if they are contraposed to the current base state. If that were to be true, then one would expect the upcoming time in 7 (assuming it actually verifies) to have little or no noticeable impact. Perhaps its still better to have it in in 7 and not helping rather than in 4-5-6 and actively hurting. Or maybe none of the old logic makes any difference in the new regime anymore.