cbmclean

Griteater got a nice shout out in the MA forum for his EPS animation find.

boo, hiss

I agree it's a bit premature. But I can understand the psychology of it. For some it is a lot less painful to expect the worse and maybe be pleasantly surprised.

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Well, if you inverted one of them, they would be kind of similar. I would be tempted to discard the FV out of hand. I think we know that that sort of coast-to-coast cold anomaly is pretty much physically impossible. You can be coast-to-coast warm, but not cold.

I appreciate your taking the time to pass along some knowledge.

C.A.P.E Thank you for this. This is the exact understanding that I had from listening other's talk on here and reading a bit of simple stuff online. However, from the EPS 360 hr map that was posted above the below normal 500 dm anomalies stretched all the way from Alaska through the NWT/Nunavut, down through Ontario into the Eastern US. So by my understanding, below normal 500 dm heights should equate to BN temps in all of those areas. So BN heights in northern Canada should equal BN temps there according to the simplified model that I have in my head. I would expect if Canada was being flooded with mild Pacific air i would see red anomalies up there. Can you explain where I am going off the track?

Anyone on here interested in briefly explaining the physical mechanism by which height anomalies and temp anomalies are associated? It is something which has troubled me for years. Clearly heights and temperatures are correlated. AN heights tend to be associated with AN temps and vice versa.

Visitor from the SE forum here. I am obviously uneducated, but I was curious, even with the BN heights in Alaska, isn't it also showing forecasting BN heights in the East. And isn't that a good thing?

My feelings exactly.

Well, it is important to differentiate. We don't have a -NAO. We have some forecasts which imply we might have a -NAO in the future, which is a very different thing. Overall, my point is that I think we are justified in being cautiously optimistic, which I think most on here would probably agree with.

Personally, my expectations are well in check but it still makes me happier than if the indices were all pointing in the opposite direction, which as we all know happens all too frequently. I wouldn't say its equivalent to being in the bullseye 5 days out. If you are in the bullseye 5 days out, you KNOW that you are doomed and that the storm will end up passing 200 miles to your northwest. With good index forecasts, you can reasonably conclude that you have a smaller than average chance of a patented December SER setting up shop. Certainly not a zero chance, but smaller than average. On the other hand, when reality verifies bad after promising forecasts, I sometimes find it even more frustrating than when you can see the fail coming from a mile away. For example, last February stung extra bad after the promising MJO forecasts.

Ponds frozen over here in Wilson as well, and we are well into the coastal plain. Heck I saw pics of some ice on the edges of the sounds. Truly a cold snap to remember. I expect that that may be the best cold snap I see in my lifetime.

I take it as a positive that this kind of stuff is showing up in mid-November instead of us having to hang our hopes on this in January. Oh, and anyone notice that little gem in the far SE corner of the map?

Similar must have happened to Wilson. Tomatoes and peppers made it through the night. They are close to the house so they probably also benefit from a degree or two of heating from the brick foundation radiating at night.

Maybe the MA peeps can recover from last years' dud. This looks right up their alley.

Only got down to 33 F on the PWS. Close but no cigar. Still, not complaining too much after escaping the six-week-long ridge.

More proof of the variability of the human condition For me personally, I can handle hot humid days pretty well, even working outside. But I have to have a cool dry place to go to at the end of the day, especially to sleep at night. Actually since AC is so widespread down here I bet our northern brethren may be tougher in that regard than us. I know that when I go visit my wife's extended family in Western PA I am always terrified of the possibility of a warm spell, because no one has A/C, and sleeping upstairs can be suffocating.

For some reason I don't really remember much about 2014 - 2015. May have something to do with having a <1 year old baby at the time. I do seem to remember a nice -EPO outbreak, maybe in February, which got me down to +3.9 F with a bit of snow cover, which was my PWS record until this past January's miracle on ice. I don't remember anything about the "exceptionally cold" November, though.

You know what my first goal for this winter is: NOT to have one of the three months be historically warm. We've had three straight years if that crap (December 15, Feb 17, Feb 18).

Well, I hope that he is just as right about this, as he was about a couple of recent years which had high Siberian snow cover in October.

Who is the NSF? I am intrigued about the Siberian snow cover thing. Seems like Dr. Cohen's theory has taken a beating the last few years.

Didn't we have a ginormous historic NA block this past March?

If I had the power to ban people...:D

Thanks, Don.