cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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To me, it seemed that he was quite stung by the outcry after the Jan 2016 debacle (much of which was undeserved in my opinion). I half wonder if that experience may have added a bit to his conservatism.
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He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident". Someone re-posted it yesterday. If I knew how, I would re-post it again. It should be required reading before one can post on here.
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Most of them bad, apparently.
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So what does "getting NAMed" mean? I had thought it was when the NAM showed a rediculously overdone QPF at range. But I saw a post in the main storm thread which seemed to imply it meant when the NAM was first to sniff out a warm nose and rained on your snow parade. Which is it?
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By the way, I like your little header "1899 Repeat, Please". I learned about the great 1899 cold outbreak in my well-loved copy of Christopher C. Burt's "Extreme Weather". -2 F in Tallehassee! Here is a link to a journal article about it. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003<0305%3ATGAOAE>2.0.CO%3B2
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You know, I still can't shake the feeling that SOMETHING unforeseen is going to go wrong with this storm. An under-modeled warm nose, anomalous dry banding, aliens from space using their death rays to zap the snow before it hits the ground. And when it happens, this board is going to be near catatonic.
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That surprises me. I would have expected the record high for Alanta to be in the upper seventies this early in December.
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Can someone remind me what the RGEM is again. Asking for a friend
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Why do they bother wasting what I would assume are scarce computational resources in running a model so far outside of its effective domain?
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I am rooting for my peeps in the W Piedmont and Mtns. But since I am dependent on others for model analysis, part of me is ready for this event to come and go so the forum can get back to the post-storm long range.
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That's an interesting point, and one I have never considered. One thing that seems to be the case is that, the weather there seems to be less variable, at least if we are talking about sea level. The temperatures ranges are much less and precipitation is more predictable (they have distinct wet and dry seasons). I remember at work there was a guy who moved from Orange County CA and it really struck him how random our summer afternoon thundershowers are. It was weird for him to be bone dry in his location and five miles down the road be getting a downpour. Where he was from, everyone got rain or no one got rain. San Diego is of course famous for being 75 - 85 the whole year. Where it might make more difference is in the rockies and the western great plains. cold and warm air masses are constantly battling with dramatic results, and they have less time to assimilate the land sampling than we do.
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Good to see you posting Downeastnc. I'm trying to stay aloof of this storm, I just don't see much in the cards for us. Maybe some wet flakes if we are lucky.
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We're used to it.
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Hey Buddy, are you model watching while you should be working?
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That may have been in jest, but i think it's a good point in reality. Since the major storm seems to depend on the perfect timing of the NS and SS features, once more data is assimilated it may go poof.
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Looks like ENC is going to get an epic dose of...cold rain.
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A very encouraging post from psuhoffman over on the MA thread (he seems like the real deal, so I put a lot of stock in what he says) Note of course that his thoughts on snow are really only applicable when it comes to the MA, but the thoughts on overall patters should be applicable for us as well.
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Ah, the fond memories of Christmas 2015 when I had to swat the gnats and mosquitoes away.
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Oh, it's academic for me. I'm not getting anything anyway. It's just that they were really hyped yesterday but were bummed after that last model run. It;s a roller coaster ride for sure.
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The MA forum is frowny-faced right now.
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That surprises me, the Raleigh area has been burnt so many times. Not that he has anything to do with the RAH forecast, but I think Greg Fishel lost 3 years of life just from the Jan 2016 debacle alone.
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It was last year right after Christmas in the Dec 29ish time frame where there was a large storm modeled which went poof due to being suppressed. In retrospect, I am glad that it did, because that suppression was the herald of an arctic outbreak the likes of which I had never seen before, including frozen-over lakes in Wilson, NC. In my opinion, that is more enjoyable than any individual storm. And much of NC still got to cash in on some snow later anyway.
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Well, in their defense, the past two winters have had them almost driven insane from lack of snow. I wish there was a way that we could both store instead of them trying to pull it north and us trying to pull it south. This one is academic for me, since eastern NC was never in the game. Maybe next time.
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I have to admit that I have been wondering what was the story between you guys.
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Well, it will be an interesting week of model watching here in E NC. I can't wait to find out if we are going to get cold rain, cool rain, or warm rain.
