cbmclean

I think this map is just comparing the Ensemble Mean temp forecast between the 12Z and the 0Z. It doesn't actually show the forecast anomalies.

I think I will try to at least get through tomorrow without peeking.

I really should but I know I don't have the will-power. I also want to follow the Day 7 - 9 cool shot to see if it can at least throw you guys a bone.

Well, according to PSU's analysis, once that ridge show up, it stays all winter (yuck). Apparently the one and only way to avoid the doom is to have a stout -NAO. Since the weeklies are seeing the TPV hovering over the NAO area the whole period, it is therefore bound to predict hot garbage. So our only hope is simply that an unanticipated NAO pops up at some point. It is just that simple. I think Bob was saying that we did have a brief period of NAO blocking pop up in the medium range right around the beginning of the Pac puke, so maybe it can happen again.

Nose of doom pattern just starting to peak into under 10 days on the EPS. Maybe one day we'll have a really good pattern show up at d15 and inexorably march forward in time.

On the other hand, I have also seen some speculate that decreasing temp gradients between the tropics and polar regions should lead to a weakening in the polar jet. I would assume that would mean more time in the -AO mode. Sure aren't seeing it this winter though.

I saw this article earlier, maybe on this site last winter. It chilled me to the bone. Imagine in the future, 9 out of 10 years with never-ending Pac puke.

I think you may have posted this before, but how many years were in your analog pool for Pacific Doom Blob? Apparently there at least a few where the blob died earlier than others? I know I'm reaching for straws here, but not much else to do.

Sorry, the "it" I was referring to was the Pacific Doom Blob.

If you cycle through the GEFS to the very end, if you squint real hard you might be able to see it weakening and slowly migrating east. TPV is absolutely nailed to Baffin Bay.

I can't wait for it to start doing curley-cues

Well, I find it interesting, in a masochistic way, that the models, especially the EPS but all of them to some extent, have been able to zero in on our fail patterns super far out. Impressive work on their part.

I think we have had several recent -NAO episodes in march. It's kind of a running joke int he SE forum. I think there may have even been one last year.

So in others words, like 2016 in the SE forum area.

Status report from MA thread: Cool gradient pattern setting up day 9 - 10. If they get lucky they could end up on the right side of the gradient, but generally pessimistic based on previous gradient patterns. Verbatim, the pattern setting up after day 12 or so on all three major ensembles, is the kind that makes women faint, strong men weep, and dogs hide under the beds. My own extrapolation for us: no reason to get excited about any winter weather potential for the SE. Should hopefully have a couple of days cool/coldish days but little hope for anything else.

Shocking.

GEFS has strong agreement on an initial peak at ~3.5, then a big spread. Check out the several members showing it go to +5.0. Also I thought it was hilarious how the second half of December has mostly been negative. Thanks a bunch, Pacific.

Actually it is not my place to tell you guys how to run your forum since I am just a guest. I would just be sad to see the MA forum turn into NE.

Come on, let's keep it constructive. Or else we turn into the New England forum.

I understand your basic points. His concern is that the particular pattern which MAY develop in the Pacific is one which has historically very persistent when it does occur. IF it does occur and IF the NA does not play nice, then we will have a very high probability of toast. Just beware, there is a large portion of the forum which actively likes looking into the 10+ day range and trying to tease patterns to see what MAY be coming. Sometimes (perhaps most times) little or no value is found. Other times, however, meaningful predictions can be made. For example, this current pattern was identified by the EPS well ouside 10 days.

Certainly, I was just expressing gallows humor. However, the point can be made that the gloomy scenarios being painted by all three major ensembles is probably related to the crappy MJO pattern being advertised. Hopefully they are all wrong and we begin a grand tour of the good phases.

I have been lurking here for years and I do not think it is fair to characterize PSUHoffman as Doom and Gloom. He describes what he analyzes in the models, independent of his personal desires. Right now, the long term (past day 10) looks very grim. I understand that you believe that the models have no use past day 10, but we do not all agree.

That's right my precious, spend as little time as possible in the good phases, and at as low an amplitude as possible. Then rocket into the COD and exit in the bad phases again.

GEFS and GEPS show identical crap ridges in the east at 384. So that makes all three major ensembles giving us the finger at that time frame.

I can agree with that.