cbmclean

I know that this may be more of a philosophical question, but has any one read any information about what phenomena drive/modulate the MJO? I mean, obviously, tropical sun beating down on the ocean is going to drive convection, but I am wondering what makes the convection organize into bands which travel around the world (sometimes).

Well, that too.

This freaked me out until I aw it was MSLP, and not H5.

Somewhat positive-feeling post from Don S. today. Of course it is focused on NYC area and north. But general info is relevant for the whole east coast.

Others, like Bob Chill, have also noted that the Pac Puke tends to really be hard to root out. I know one thing: I am going to watch the MJO like a hawk from now on. Seems to be a more powerful driver than I realized.

Actually I need to clarify. My impression was that both the GFS and Euro had an interseasonal product. I thought the GFS one was called the CFS. I thought hte Euro one was the one we referred to as "the weeklies". Am I wrong?

In my defense, the guidance consensus was very impressive. My conclusion is you can't trust guidance when it comes to -NAO. Ever. I am not sure if I fully agree that we can't lock-in good patterns. If you mean for a week or two, last year we (RDU) had an almost 10 day period below 32 F which included some snow, plus another storm two weeks later. Not sure what you guys experienced in the Upstate. On the other hand, if you mean for a month or more, then yes I agree that the pattern stability does seem asymmetric between cold and warm. We can and do get full three-month long crap-fests, like 2005-6 and 2011-12. I am not aware of any equivalent three-month long cold period. Closest I remember is probably the first half of 2009-10. Which as I am sure you will mention, I think featured extensive -NAO blocking.

Well, I am waving the flag (with regards to a dreamt-of epic pattern). The advertised +PNA/-NAO (in some cases of epic magnitudes) which was universal across the major guidance has evaporated. Poof. Anybody who wants to say "I told you so", the mic is open. That being said, starting this weekend, it does look nice and cold for a week to 10 days. After that nobody knows. There are some ominous rumblings from the MJO.

Anybody know what the latest weeklies/CFS are showing? Did they loose their positive vibe as well?

Good point. I would say that the only thing we really have confidence in right now is it will be cold for the next two weeks on average. It may snow, it may not. -NAO, may appear, it may not. It's a frustrating state to be in for sure.

I wasn't defending him so much as just trying to get to the bottom of the underlying claim (I have a lot invested emotionally in the -NAO; more than is healthy, which is foolish I know). I missed your previous post.

Your points are reasonable. Based on the fact that he (maybe sexist but for some reason I am assuming that he is male) is still posting here after the feedback that he has received I suspect that he is either 1. A troll. 2. Someone who honestly believes what he is posting and is stubbornly going to keep posting because he feels he is a prophet in the wilderness. 3. Someone who honestly believes in what he is posting and is mostly oblivious to the near universal scorn (could be possible if, for example his mental perception is different than the average person i.e. asperger's etc). If he is a troll, then the constant shutdowns are worse than pointless, because they feed on negativity and cherish knowing that they are getting under your skin. If he feels he is a "prophet" then the scorn probably just feeds his feeling of righteousness. If he is a #3, then he probably isn't even noticing it. To make a long story short: probably best to just ignore instead of negative feedback.

GEFS 2m temp anomalies look good for really good days 6 - 10. I see what people are talking about for days 11 - 16 on the GEFS. Hopefully it doesn't verify. But man does Canada look cold.

Well, you know that I am here in good faith. Just looped through the 12 EPS/GEFS/GEPS all seem to have moderate + anomalies over Greenland at the ends of their respective runs. Not the really stout block we have been looking for for so long. On the plus side, did note that EPS had cold 850 MB temps to the end of its run, from Ellesmere Island to the Yucatan.

Everyone is piling on this guy, but he made an objective claim: that the -NAO is no longer present on guidance (I assume that he means long range ensembles). Is he correct or not? If I get a chance I will try to check out Tropical Tidbits tonight and see. I for one will be really discouraged if he is correct.

PSU will be bummed. He loved 1985. Just ask him about it sometime.

Is this just the GEFS or us the EPS showing it also?

Oh dear.

Note from the link that Bob provided, it is not only the magnitude of the NAO which is important, but also the location. East-based due little to no good for Eastern NA. In the GFS plot above you can see the + anomalies centered just west of Greenland, in the Davis Strait and Baffin Bay. A Davis Strait block is apparently highly desirable. Of course it is a 336 hour op, so I simply scoff in its general direction.

Human nature. You get used to what you have gotten used too. If you don't have it, you notice it. For example, 100 years ago, many of our ancestors lived completely without electricity. If we lost electricity for two weeks, we would be resulting to cannibalism.

I hate that for them. I like everybody to get their snow fix. I was kind of under the impression that late late November and early December was pretty cold up there. I was in the throes of a really tough gradate course so I wasn't able to pay too much attention.

I've been focused so much on the pattern change that I have kind of lost track of actual weather happening. Did they have a snow bust up there? I thought the storm wasn't hitting them until tomorrow.

Kind of reminds me of the NE thread, but with less insults.

I would prefer 1899 redux, fun for the whole family.

Wild emotional swings aside, I think it is completely rational to be concerned that the advertised good H5 look might disappear at any second, never to be seen again. Or else be eternally delayed. As of last night, my perception was that the good look was common across all the guidance (not talking about long-range ops) to varying degrees and was moving forward in time quite nicely. Is that still accurate?