CAD_Wedge_NC

What's really incredible is that 74 reading in West Virginia.

Ask those folks in Northern Minnesota if it was warm and dry this winter....

One thing that keeps me from buying into the FV3 solution is the CMC.... Usually, it sees cad events very well at this range. As was mentioned earlier, either the FV3 will be hailed as the new king or it will look like the court jester.

Agreed .... The FV3 Will have to have some support from the others before I fall into that camp. That being said, I would like to see it be right this time.

Yeah, I don't have much faith in the FV3 in the long range. However, this is certainly the type of pattern to see a big cad event, if those highs to the north verify.

22 degrees this morning. Didn't think it was going to get that cold last night. This was a nice little cold snap, but nothing compared to what could have been if the Midwest cold would have been oriented differently.

19 again this morning. Might drop another degree or so before sunrise.

19 this morning ... 24 now. Looks like another night in the teens.

I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me.

Normally I would agree. However, I have always been taught not to get suckered by the NAM's QPF output. Especially when it's an outlier wet or dry.

Only thing we can be sure of is that the colder air will be moving in.

Yes, and the globals can miss these small scale features that could provide local areas with enhanced precip. Is the NAM right? I would like to see this show up consistently on future runs before committing either way. I will say that a wave developing and some lee-side enhancement is not out of the question by any means. At this range I start to rely more heavily on the higher resolution guidance than on the globals.

Nah, that western US ridge will save us .... look at that split flow just off the California coast.

Back down into the teens again this morning.... 19 degrees here. Could bottom out with another degree or two. Some big temp swings this past week.

No, he is talking about late this weekend.... and I agree. This one is closer than a lot of folks think.