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cbmclean

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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. + Anomalies not really centered over Greenland, more like Baffin island. Does that make a significant difference?
  2. According to MA big dogs the STJ isn't drying up, but just getting squashed way down by the TPV. Same effect while it is happening , but easier to recover from I would think.
  3. Well we got some snow to go along with it. Not too much, but enough to drive me down to 0 F one night, which is quite an accomplishment for eastern NC. There has been some mention on the SE board of 1994, which was notable for us for some bitter cold outbreaks interspersed with "warm up and rain" storms.
  4. I would prefer for everybody to get some snow Push come to shove, I love cold, so I could survive cold and dry.
  5. This is a major learning moment for me. If you feel like it, could you explain how to analyze the sensible weather impacts from the GFS version, especially with regards to temperature anomalies.? My current understanding is on a very simplistic level. I see a big trough in the east and ridge in the west and think "good, must be cold". Obviously I have a lot to learn.
  6. Being a weather hobbyist is not for the faint of heart.
  7. Sometimes I think the models team up troll us. It is so much more satisfying to crush hope when it has been raised.
  8. I'm a little better off for this pattern, since I am one of those who can enjoy plain cold. Of course I would rather my cold come with snow.
  9. Hopefully. Next 10 days will be frustrating for the "give me snow or give me 60s" crew. Gonna warm up and rain, then get cold. Then warm up and rain, then get cold.
  10. Wow I didn't realize. Man I love winter, even when it's a little out of season.
  11. I didn't realize it was significant enough for a warning.
  12. When was his first warning event? I thought you guys had been shutout since November.
  13. Right now there is no HL blocking so warm/wet and cold/dry is the favored outcome. It is still possible (in NC at least) to get them to both match up, as we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 where we had no Atlantic support but were kept from torching by the EPO, and eventually a lot of us moderately scored. But that is a low probability occurance. For sure, if we want serious chances of scoring a significant snowfall, we are going to need the Atlantic to cooperate. There are encouraging signs that it might start to do just that the last week of January and into February, but we all know how that can go. I like cold for its own sake so for the present, I am going to sit back, enjoy the cold shots, and hope the long-range guidance comes to fruition.
  14. Congrats to the DC bunch from your SE forum friends. Here's hoping the whole east coast can cash in on multiple big ones over the next month.
  15. They really needed it. I have been hanging around in their forum a lot lately since ours kind of fell asleep in the afterglow of the early December storm and the subsequent boring pattern. It was getting ugly in there. Still great analysis, though.
  16. I would call it an epic pattern, but we have to remember, in the non-mountain SE, "epic" means 30% chance of significant winter weather, as opposed to the usual 1%.
  17. Thanks. I woul dlike to share your post in my home forum. I have seen others do this but am not sure how. Do you know?
  18. Maybe this is just the step down that you you have mentioned many times, perhaps just a little colder and more entertaining than you had envisioned it?
  19. Ops runs at range. You know how that goes. That being said, things aren't looking good for snow in the SE next weekend. There's a good chance for some serious cold, and there will be moisture, just not the right kind of blocking to get them to be in the same time at the same place. On the bright side, there is serious support for significant high latitude blocking the last week of January and into February. It would be nice if it was happening now though.
  20. If you don't want it, you can send it down my way.,,
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