cbmclean

Back during the pac puke, I mentioned 2012 in comparison to this year, but you said that the mechanisms were nothing at all alike. Can you explain that? I thought that in both cases a really strong Pacific jet flooded the conus with mild air. Do you just mean that the cause of the strong pacific jet was different in the two years?

Yes, I keep forgetting about Jan 16. Didn't lead to anything significant down here, so it doesn't stick in my mind. Also, I think I was still mentally stunned by the previous 80 F Christmas.

That's the funny thing. We had a giant -NAO less then 10 months ago. Brought some of you guys some significant March snow. Even snowed a bit down in my neck of the woods which is impressive. Other early springs lately have had similar, though less extreme events. But for some reason we can't seem to get it in Met winter. Some have pondered whether AGW is the cause. Maybe so. But I do not understand what about AGW that would prevent -NAO in Dec - Feb, but not in March or April.

If it was really acting like a Nina, we wouldn't have had a juicy STJ dousing us with rain for several months (although it has moderated of late). It's not acting like a weak Nino though, which is what had a lot of folks with high hopes. There are multiple theories floating around as to why. As I mentioned on the MA thread, I am waving the flag for this winter. I don't see any reason to believe that there will be any significantly good period for the Carolinas. I am completely rejecting discounting the weeklies/CFS and their continued "trust me, this time it can't go wrong" NAO blocking, and the Pacific base state just seems to not be right. I hope I am proven wrong.

Perhaps, but I honestly believe that it is unlikely to happen, at least in time for my forum. I am not trying to convince anyone or to turn into the southern version of you know who. And I would love to be proven completely and utterly wrong. In the meantime, I will continue to read and learn.

I will be rooting for you guys. I am waving the flag for me personally. By that I mean that think that the goose is cooked for the SE for the rest of Met winter. This is not just blind Debbism. I am basing this off of the sum of you guys' discussions of the LR ensembles, the stubborn MJO, and also general interdecadal trends. Things are obviously not quite as dire for your guys. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the epic -NAO finally blossom in March when you guys can still benefit (well those of you who don't hate March snow). I have to admit to pretty severe disappointment. It might not be technically correct to say that this winter had promise, since we are now seeing warning signs that have become apparent in retrospect, but it had "promise of promise" if you know what I mean. My hopes were up anyway. And around 1/9-10 when the pac puke unexpectedly relaxed and everything looked so darn good in the long range, I really got reeled in.

What is it that makes you feel this way?

I have asked myself a question, have not yet come up with a good answer, I will ask you guys: Assume, just for the sake of a thought experiment, that NWP was able to tell you exactly what kind of winter you will get, down to the number and general intensity of every storm, rain or snow. If on Dec 1 you were able to see with 100% confidence that your winter was going to be a fail, would it make you sad because you knew what was coming, or would it be a relief since you didn't have the anxiety of not knowing?

Somebody please tell Cold Rain to lower the dang snow shields.

PSU, could you pass along any info on what the experts you mention are specifically saying?

It's taking every bit of rationality I can muster up to keep from making pointless Debbie downer posts like "we know it's not going to happen". If I was an actual MA guy, I think I would be close to the reaping stage.

I think they banned that guy. I am not sure if that was a good idea or not, as it seemed to draw the whole forum together in a show of unity in how much they hated him.

It was truly hilarious recently when things looked really dark, Ji was breaking out the optimism. PSUHoffman christened him the "Merchant of Hope".

It has to work out sometime!!

I appreciate it.

Not sure how it could be done, but I dream of one day visiting Vostok, Antarctica in winter. Talk about cold and dry.

Not really. As much as I love cold, I also love my home state very much. All my family is here and that is also very important to me. My wife dislikes serious cold as well. I definitely plan to take some cold weather vacations when the kids are older. Not sure how I will convince the wife though.

Just my own personal story. My nature is an intensely emotional one. I feel highs and lows very strongly. I love cold and I HATE winter warmth. Although I love snow, growing up int he NC coastal plain snow was too rare to really base my emotions on. When I say I obsess over the weather, I am being literal; I am have battled with OCD almost all of my life, and when the pattern sucks, it genuinely fills my thoughts and gets me very down. Genuine winter torches leave me morose and irritable (on the flip side, when we were in epic deep freeze last January my wife noted that I was in a really good mood). I absolutely, positively, really really really do not want to start an AGW debate here, but for the purpose of this post just know that I personally believe it to be scientific fact. Given this imagine the mental distress I feel as year after year I believe that I feel the very existence of a meaningful winter slowly dying bit by bit. And it's not just winter IMBY that weighs on me. I love the idea of cold and ice/snow wherever it is. I spend hours reading about and just thinking about the beautiful sound of the cold wind blowing across the desolate tundra or antarctic plateau. The thought of those places slowly thawing feels me with real pain. I know this may sound melodramatic and ridiculous, but you can't really help what you love. In any event I come to this board to share my feelings with those who at least have some idea what I am talking about. No one else in my life really understands: not my parents or my brother or wife etc.

What's not to like? Clearly a - NAO. Smells like victory

It seems like he is 180° out of phase wit the rest of the board.

When PSU is spooked, I am spooked.

I understand this. I just was sharing a quip with the board. This board is like my support group.

That looks like the dreaded PAC Puke. Is there no end to the dreams it can crush?

For those of us who are just learning, how did we get to here, in terms of how the pattern as modeled going from epic to bleh. Edit:Whoops this should be in the pattern thread.

Well, some natural phenomena have straight forward explanations, like, "why is the antarctic colder than the arctic?" and stuff like that. Others not so much. Still doesn't hurt to ask.