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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. I have considered filling a restraining order against the SER.
  2. Speaking of the NAO, if I ever win the lottery, one of my first acts will be to commission a study to quantify the impacts of the various indices on SE weather. I am thinking of something like a 4 variable linear regression to analyze the impact of the NAO, AO, PNA, EPO.
  3. I understand that the answer may be too complex for a layman but why is the 500 millibar level so much better for understanding what is happening. I also see 850 mb heights referenced quite a bit.
  4. Packbacker, I have been reading about Ensembles in general. I have seen "EPS" used to stand for "Ensemble Prediction System". Here you seem to be referring to a specific model. Is it the Euro?
  5. Fair enough. It doesn't hurt to salivate over some fantasy maps every once and a while. In general, are the GFS and Euro in agreement that the pattern is becoming more wintry int he SE. And by wintry I mean 40s and low 50s instead of 60s?
  6. Is this just the GFS operational? Are any of the other models/ensembles hinting at this?
  7. It doesn't even have to be that deep. In 2013-2014 here in Wilson we had a few inches on the ground and it it got down to 3.9 F according to my weather station one morning. We are in the NC coastal plain so those temps are very rare.
  8. Does anybody remember what "The Wolf" told Vincent and Jules when things were starting to look up in Pulp Fiction? Let's keep our heads about us.
  9. In the spirit of this thread, I will say that this means it won't happen.
  10. I am actually visiting my wife's family in Old Fort which is about 35 miles east of Asheville. It was mostly overcast all day so stayed a little cooler. But there is no denying it has been two straight ugly Xmases in the SE. December has beeen mostly depressing for me these last five years, since that magical 2010.
  11. RDU got a little warmer than forecast. It hit 60. That makes three straight Xmas days at 60+ and 4 out of the last 5. This is getting old.
  12. So HadCRUT and GISS disagree? I wish I could look into the data.
  13. i wish I had the time and expertise to look into this more. I have heard claims that the 30s and 40s were warm in the arctic but I assumed that the current warmth blew it away.
  14. An interesting graph. I am assuming that the dark line is the running 37 month average (why in the world would they choose 37 months?). Some observations 1. I am curious as to the source of HADCRUT4 data for this region from say, the 1930's. This was long before the Cold war drove the great powers to dot the arctic with outposts and there were certainly no satellites, so where does the data come from? 2. The running average for the recent warm period seems to be beginning to exceed the late 30's early 40s but not to a degree that would necessarily cause alarm in the abscence of other data. 3. Even in the midst of that previous warm epoch, there were numerous cold anomalies which are not being replicated in the recent warm period. 4. Speaking of "anomalies" what is the 0 C baseline used by this graph? 5. According to this dataset, arctic temps seem to have actually become less variable, which does not correspond with one of the conclusions of the article.
  15. One thing that strikes me is that according to this analysis, even with a much warmer arctic due to AGW, this was a very unlikely event. So either we got very "unlucky" or the AGW models used may not be sufficiently pessimistic.
  16. Larry Cosgrove doesn't foresee cold in the SE until at least Feb. Although I am beginning to wonder about the science content of his forecasts. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica
  17. You know, something I wonder about with regards to the last few decades of winter warming in the SE: is the warming more due to a greater prevalence of warm patterns, or is it more due to overall warming of both warm and cold patterns? Anecdotally it seems to me that the many of the "sucky" winters are associated with the persistence of some "sucky" pattern feature, such as a screaming Pacific jet or ferociously strong Bermuda high (looking at you last Christmas)
  18. Speaking of heat, here is an interesting evisceration of the official world record temp of 134 F from Death Valley back in 1913. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/an-investigation-of-death-valleys-134f-world-temperature-record
  19. I pretty much take it for granted that AGW is the ultimate cause of the anomalous pattern, but I would like to understand the mechanisms involved.
  20. I guessed as much, but SE ridges pop up all the time. What is making this one special?
  21. The statistics are breathtaking of course but I would like to understand the mechanisms for this endless warmth. What has been abnormal about the synoptic scale weather patterns? Anecdotally it seems to me that its been ridging at the drop of a hat. During high summer, I know that there was a very stagnant high in place over the southeast, essentially preventing any frontal passage. The last several weeks we have been getting pleasant cool shots but in between the heights surge back up. I'd like to understand why, to the extent that that is possible for an educated layman.
  22. Wow this is a really neat dataset and very unexpected. Assuming that the rest of NC is similar to Charlotte it seems that in the main that we depend on El Ninos for our colder than normal winters. But if its a "Super Nino", run for the hills. I wonder what the mechanism is for the difference is between the results for Strong and Super.
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