cbmclean

Well, on the positive side, when the flip does occur, it will make this long-track, well blocked-storms all the more precious after having years like this.

I know you're backed by the data, but man it is a loooooooong wait. I will note that if the previous negative bias period ended after 2010 - 11, then near the end the blocking was historic So perhaps this year is the mirror image "grand finale" of the crap + period.

I have been plowing through the monthly statistics at RDU, which the closest NWS site for me. This year had the sixth warmest January on record. The record is Jan 1950, but #3 is Jan 1949. So 1949-50 had two back to back January crapfests. It can happen again.

I'm just kind of curious if you know what scapism actually was (or supposedly was). I happened to run across in my usuall Wikipedia leisure reading. So it caught my attention when I saw a beer named after it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaphism

Honest question: but why? If it could happen in 97 - 98, why couldn't it happen again, especially with the phenomenon which shall not be named occurring?

Wow, the 0° is OFF THE COAST south of San Diego. If this gets any worse it'll be snowing in Tijuana.

Somewhere on the CPC site I think they have the daily AO data back to 1950. I think I might try to pull it and do a histogram to see what the distribution looks like.

Never mind, you answered me before I could even ask the question.

If you guys can pull in the cold from the north I'll try to guard your southern frontier to hold back the return flow. It shall not pass!! Seriously though, which guidance is showing this relaxation? I have to admit to having basically checked out, so I haven't been following the trends.

Wait, I know it went over +6, but is that unit in standard deviations in the normal sense? Just historically it seems to spend a lot more time outside of +/-2 than I would expect for something with a normal (gaussian) distribution.

January 2018.

I like that random patch in the middle of the Atlantic with 80-90% odds of 3 inches.

The sentiment is much appreciated, but we all deserve some winter. Unfortunately, in the words of the great Clint Eastwood....

Don't worry, it's not happening. I'm a SE weenie, but I'm not delusional.

Well, I am from Hope Mills, NC, which is just south of Fayetteville. I probably mentioned that sometime. I am rooting for some sort of fluke to sneak in and give at least some of you guys some love. For here, I'll be satisfied if I can just get some seasonable weather to fend of the bugs for a while. I'll be dreaming of next year.

Even without the ignore button, I just skim over his posts and also all the posts arguing with him, except when someone actually presents hard data which I find interesting. Speaking of which I downloaded the hard data for RDU from the NOAA and have started to slice and dice various interesting statistics. So far I have seen that December was "only" our 12th warmest, but it was tied for 6th for least number of days with min<32. Has anyone seen the numbers for Dec and Jan for IAD and DCA in terms of Tavg?

CPC page gives this definition. I am trying to make heads or tails of it. " The daily AO index is constructed by projecting the daily (00Z) 1000mb height anomalies poleward of 20°N onto the loading pattern of the AO. " So I understand the concept of geopotential height anomaly, although I am not used to see it at 1000 MB. What does it mean to "project it on the loading pattern".

Thanks! I find this stuff really interesting.

I think the +++++AO and the strong PV are different names for the same phenomenon. In other words, the AO index is a measure of the strength of the PV. Please someone chime in if I am misinformed.

Anyone able to give a quick explanation of what a "wave breaking" is? Seen it mentioned several times this winter.

Well that is a known Euro bias, or at least it was in the past. I am still just going under the policy of assuming the actual outcome will be the worst of all modeled outcomes.

At this point I am ok with that. I know its a different story for you guys maybe getting some March love, but down here it's pretty much over for us. Just give me some cold to keep the bugs at bay for a little while. I just hate hate hate those nights right before FROPA where its like 65 and humid at midnight.

If he is referring to the chart that Bobchill posted, it is the 1981-2010 period. This year has just started to sneak into the bottom of the interdecile range.

Its more east-central. My climatology is nowhere near you guys. I hang out here because the posters are the most knowledgeable and the large scale pattern drivers are mostly the same for me as for you. NC is fairly diverse for climate at its latitude. The SE quadrant (Wilmington and environs) is darn near tropical. The NW piedmont is much more continental (relatively speaking of course) and the high mountains actually get a good bit of snow.

The "ground truth" of what? Does he mean that more frequent good years are holding up the mean while the median is steadily declining? If so, he's probably right. Should be easy to parse the numbers if one has the data.