cbmclean

That's the thing though, I don't think its going to make it to phase 8. It will do loop-de-loops in phase 7 until spring.

Nevermind. The link at the previous post answered my question.

Don't have easy access to historical records right now. What exactly happened in March 1960?

Man it is amazing how fast Fab Feb went to Feb Flub. I wonder what it was that "faked" all the models out, or were we just projecting our desires onto their usually variable output?

I have been trying for a while to find good info about the effect of MJO on CONUS temps. Found a good citation using my student access via the NCSU library (yay library fees) Zhou, S., L’Heureux, M., Weaver, S., Kumar, A., (2011). A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States. Climate Dynamics, 38, 1459-1471 So this article shows why everyone on this thread likes phases 8 - 1- 2 so much. Interestingly, it again shows that we tend to do better with low amplitude in those phases.

A link to someone's master's thesis correlating MJO phase with CONUS temps. If I understand correctly, it seems that if you want a significant Eastern US cold snap, you should root for the MJO to be inthe COD. That surprises me. https://www.albany.edu/honorscollege/files/findlay_thesis.docx

As others have mentioned recently, some forecasts are showing it making a detour around 8 or maybe even reversing itself back to phase 6. Hopefully that doesn't happen.

I had high hopes for February, but now I am just hoping that the cold/dry - warm-up and rain will average to normal. It would be nice to sneak an overall below-average winter (even if it's just a smidge below) when predictions were pretty dire going in.

13/14 had 22 out of 90 < 0. If I recall, that winter had a very friendly -EPO regime which saved us. By the way, the graphs from my last post were mislabeled, they were 15/16 and 16/17. Here is 13/14

Went back and looked at the data for the last two winters from ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/. To no one's surprise, +NAO dominates, but in neither case was it a shutout. 2014-2015 had 16 out of 91 days below 0, while 2015 - 2016 had 35 out of 90. This winter we are batting 0 for 58. Below are graphs I made of the data for both years.

Like Ron Burgundy's dog when it ate the whole wheel of cheese and pooped in the refrigerator, the NAO is going from annoying to amazing. Crossed over from negative almost exactly on Dec 1 and has been positive every single day since (although sometimes very close to zero). I am curious to see if we can get through a whole Met winter with not one single day negative.

Man, kind of a bummer that RDU could break the all time aob freezing record yet still end up simply dead normal

This post cheered me, and then I saw a post from Ralph Wiggum in the MA thread: " Strong signal now as we head into Feb for a +nao, -pna, +ao regime. " Did the models flip flop or something?

By the way, did anyone else notice the excruciatingly tiny -NAO conditions predicted starting Jan 22. Bring on the blocking!

Thanks. I find it odd that the CPC lists AO/NAO/PNA but not EPO, while the NOAA page lists NAO/PNA/EPO but not AO

He was joking about starting a thread for the 384 hour GFS fantasy storm.

Where do you get info about the EPO? There is nothing about it on the CPC teleconnection page

I am very happy with cold. This last cold snap was like balm to my soul.

I have decided to take my first steps to become a weenie, instead of just a lurker. I checked out this Tropical Tidbits sight that you guys mention so much. Man the information there is almost overwhelming. Who maintains that site? Edit: Never mind, I read the About page. Still very impressive and useful for non-tropical weather.

Somebody mentioned Brick earlier this evening. Does anybody know what happened to him?

There was discussion about the NAO a bit earlier. Got this interesting time series from the CPC. The current positive regime doesn't seem to be quite as bad as 1989-1993.

After the last two "winters" I am loving every second of this cold snap.

Tracking snow in the SE will drive you mad.

Who is this other board, and why are we apparently the enemies?

In some of the other threads I see continual references to some mysterious "other board" that is apparently our archnemesis. What is the story behind that?