cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion
cbmclean replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well, the thing is, for both the MA and even more so the SE, there is no guarantee that the main course ever gets here, so it is always stressful. I don't chose to feel that way, but there is nothing I can do to control it. -
Wow an I85 transition line. Who'd have thunk it?
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Well the 2010s have definitely been noted for some impressive winter torches, but to be fair the historic cold last year set in right after Christmas.
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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion
cbmclean replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
I treat digital snow as a proxy for the health of the overall pattern. If the model's aren't spitting out fantasy-land storms, then it is a sign that the long-range pattern is looking sucky. Conversely, healthy digital snow totals means that that the players are on the field to some degree. So I think it is completely rational to be happy to see this as a sign of a less hostile pattern in January. -
End run GEFS doesn't look quite as horrible. Still nothing to get excited about. Still has that pesky Alaska low.
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Nothing is ever easy, is it?
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Hmmm. This statement certainly won't cause concern in the MA forum.
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IIRC, 2011-12 was a wall-to-wall hostile PAC with pacific fire hose. What was the story with 2001-2? I was in college then and I remember it being mild, but I wasn't into the weather as much then so I don't know what the hostile feature was.
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It's not true that there isn't any cold anywhere. You can clearly the 540 line in the gulf south of New Orleans.
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I wasn't implying that I was hugging the d16 GFS operational map. Just that we really want the EPO- dump to head this way and not out west.
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Since we have been focused on the storm over here I have been hanging out in the MA forum for mid/long range discussion. According to Bob Chill and PSUHoffman At least most of the next two weeks should be mild across NA due to zonal flow due to the dreaded Alaska trough. After that the trough should retrograde and there we will come to a fork in the rode: An EPO trough will develop somewhere in the CONUS. If it goes east then cold in combo with the typical nino STJ could make life good. If it goes out west though...
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My forum is still preoccupied with the snow, so I come here for actual mid-long range discussion. Hoping to continue to be able to see the end of the approaching mild period on the ensembles, and hoping to see that end move forward in time instead of staying stuck at day 16.
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I watch the sloshing in Joe Bastardi's bathtub.
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Off topic, but northern Greenland sure does look chilly. There normals are already cold this time of year.
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Temp barely budging: 39/34.
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Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?
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Awfully quiet in here now.
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Solid boring 40 F/34F here in Wilson.
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I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM? I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.
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Actually Calgary is prone to snow-eating Chinook winds. Might want to try the Michgan UP.
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Well, there are clearly two camps. HRRR says plenty of love for RDU. NAM says that at least 1/2 of the QPF at RDU will be the tears of snow weanies. The NAM is supposed to be good with the warm nose so I have a bad feeling about it.
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My pleasure. Of course I meant "battle between cold, dry air and warm, wet air".
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Actually thermal issues are a hallmark of many large snow events wherever even up to New England. The fundamental fact is that cold air tends to be dry and wet air tends to be warm. So big snows tend to happen on the front lines of a battle between cold dry air and warm dry air, which means the thermals will generally tend to be unstable.
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Well, to be fair, the 93 superstorm was in March.
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Yes, I meant Jan 2017. Sorry.
