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    Sophia NC (Randolph County)

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  1. I was posting those maps showing ops and ensembles suporting a flipback to colder wx and a pattern more conducive to opportunity for frozen. In addition to being sarcsstic and attempting a little friendly humor with Mack who understandably rips JBs LR forecast. I know as well as anyone a day 9 fantasy storm will be gone in 6hrs on models.
  2. We live in a land of digital snow now. To borrow a repeated quote from JB and phrase it for my own good. "Enjoy the computer generated snow, its the only snow you got." Who wants to look at maps of 850's +10 abn and chase perfect picnic weather lol. New Age Metorology!
  3. Hot off the press. The 18z FV3 is having a Big Mac Attack. Dumps 11.5 inches on Mac and Shettley Feb 9-10. Big snows all over Carolinas and back into GA.
  4. He might of been knocked down for a few days early next week, but hell be the one knocking em out when all is said and done. We are only 8 -16 days away before Macks historic obs start rolling in throughout mid March.
  5. EPS saying JB is a prophet post Feb 8th onward. "Delayed but not Denied. " "Harshest 30 day stretch of winter Mack has seen in his lifetime" on the way. Remember women and children first!
  6. 12z Euro Op: Feb 8th still looking good/on track
  7. 12z gfsFV3 adds to the noise starting Feb 8-9. One overuning event after another. Has front to our west runing sw to ne but gets it sagged and by feb 10 on has moisture coming and going across se, overruning with one hp after another sliding across ne. See ice down in south GA one day. So starting Feb 8 onward to atleast Feb 15 is a golden opportunity. Really curious to how the front that passes through feb 8-9 decides to set up shop and its orientation.
  8. Now that we are getting pretty strong consensus the warm up coming is brief and Feb 8/9 is our flip back time to winter. Time to start watching for opportunity to see if the window is open. I've seen a FV3 run from two days ago slap a fantasy event up during this time and it was the same reason the GFS has this at 12z today. Front comes through and hangs up along Gulf Coast. Then we get over runing potential with Our Must Have HP hanging out over NE ( Theres a 1045 HP sliding W-E behind that GL LP). Heres' a vort map to be watching for what kind of energy will be around. Rooting for a surface low here to form. Doesn't have to be some big beast, but the opportunity is there for the taken. On the surface this vort map is just a very thin line of snow way down Miss/AL. We know we are gonna have a front come through next Thursday/ 7-8 days away. Next thing to nail down is watch and see if it keeps stalling along gulf coast. If that's there next several days on models, then look for the energy on vort maps/trends and see if it can throw the qpf over the top into cold air.
  9. Yea Gefs was only one out of 4 that looked awful to me around this time and biggest reason is the lack of west coast ridge. If we NA trough or I call it the bowling ball trough again, I have reservations about our chances. There are ways to make it work good for us but also alot of ways where we sit through past patterns of cold ,warmup and rain then right back cold. I just wish we could get a nice ridge on west coast and true split flow pattern. Then throw in just the slightest bit of help Atlantic side would be icing on the cake.
  10. Alright ill join the pattern change chase. Right now its Feb 7th per gfs and euro op. Not the ensembles I know, but hour 220-230 have a storm going over NC and ots , behind, a big fat high building in. I checked this last night on euro and its held serve, so lets see if it can get under 5 days by this weekend. If,big if the mjo gets a move on out of phase 6 into 7, which its supose to ,then this times out right. My hunch is for my area we needed a reshuffle in order to score. And if we do score again its gonna have to time it with a cad HP sliding into place , synched with a gulf low. Just like December. This pv counter clockwise wheel over the lakes want work.
  11. Word on the street is its already flipped to fatties in MT Airy, that was 40 minutes ago, any truth?
  12. Mack is never gonna forget this wintrer if the tide doesnt change soon. His 2 favorite teams: Clemson wins it all football Duke will win it all basketball Brick will have over a foot of snow while his backyard gets skunked.