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    Haywood County ,NC(3500')
  1. Yeah this is a head scratcher. I feel a lot better know that blocking has taken place in both regions even as we head into December. But the models look very meh like with the upper pattern and with the temp profile. Maybe there is just a lag and the models have not caught onto this type of pattern setting up yet.
  2. So some observations with today's runs so far. This weekend looks to get really cold but we are like 5 to 6 days away. There looks to be some upslope snow also for the Northern mountains primarily because the trough centered sucks for true NW upslope snow for everyone. Sure we may see some snow showers but it looks like this will be a NNW wind which favors the northern mountains. But we are like 6 days away so take it with a grain of salt.
  3. Congrats on those who had snow yesterday. We had snow but nothing really laid on the ground. Its November so seasonable will be welcome. I really do not see huge bouts of cold but no real torch either so we will take it. It may be boring weather but 30 and 40s boring is a lot better than 70s and boring for this time of the year.
  4. The wind is ripping this evening.
  5. The euro looks world's better than the past several runs. Nice ridge out west and trough in the east.
  6. Lol me too but I am willing to wait until the middle of December to really get things going.
  7. Lol yeah. I hate to be an azz posting non positive stuff but it just seems like the past few years we have been burned badly. So until we are in the thick of things then I am just keeping it even kill. It is just November currently.
  8. Look for a cool down this weekend will maybe a few flurries this Sunday then its pretty much a crapshoot next week the way the models are behaving.
  9. Euro looks Zonal with a negative PNA and glancing cool invasions besides the cool down this weekend. The EPS will be interesting to see.
  10. Yeah even like a lot have said if this is just a precursor for down the road we will be fine for maybe one or two storms. I'm just not feeling it currently.
  11. To me the indices took a bit of a hit overnight. The PNA does not go positive, the AO dives very negative but looks to go positive again after the sharp dive, the NAO still looks to go somewhat negative but then goes back positive with a lot of spread in the ensembles. I'm very hesitant to believe we get good NAO blocking as we have seen this story time and time again. Also the models reflect this. Yeah we cool down for a say or two over thanksgiving but I think the trough is centered to far north and east for us. I do hope I am wrong with my pessimism though.
  12. Yeah I think it may. I know both models have been jumping around a lot. I don't think either model has any idea until we get in under 5 days of blocking. The AO should start to go negative in the next day or two then hopefully the NAO. I'm playing devil's advocate recently with the models jumping around. The GEFS though have been pretty stable in the advertised pattern they are showing. If the Blocking is real and does look to gain momentum then look for some pretty big changes to both models. I mean outside the mountains even this pattern will be hard to get some snow in the lowlands but hopefully after a relaxation we will see more blocking occur in the heart of winter as long as the blocking truly transpires.
  13. Hopefully the blocking actually takes hold this year and it's not false.
  14. Lol yeah the Euro is not trending in the right direction. Shoot both the Euro and the GFS look warm for a great outdoors Thanksgiving. Still over a week away though. A lot to iron out but yeah the Euro looks like much of the lower 48 will be warm for Thanksgiving.
  15. 9 and 10 days out on the Euro is like 16 days out on the GFS...