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NCSNOW

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Everything posted by NCSNOW

  1. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    If ever we need a wx thread to bust,let's hope this is the one. We've all been taking a deep breath with the steering pattern that's setup shop over the SE coast during peak Hurricane Season. As it stands now Florence is being forecasted to do the unthinkable after getting so far north out in the Atlantic and make an unprecedented b-line right into the SE coast. Every model is showing a Carolina Coastal hit as of right now. The things to keep and eye on are the intensity, landfall point obviously and forward speed as well as motion after landfall. Does it drag stall like Floyd or is it on afterburners like Hugo and Hazel. This has potential to affect alot of inland communities more so than just the normal coastal plain swipe, we often see with northerly moving storms that landfall on our coast.
  2. NCSNOW

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Still steady as she goes. Looks like by the end of next week into the weekend we can all turn off the ACs and enjoy some specatucular weather. low 70s/50 with crashing dewpoints is gonna feel great. The guys west of apps should feel it first of course, so they are approaching the 5 day benchmark. Euro is great around 120 mark as far as consistency usually. I start watching it day 7 and if it holds a look till day 5, then it s usually very dependable espeacilly at 5H. A good exercise is to watch the NEW GFS from day 4 to 7 and see if its improved over the garbage we use now. I know for Florence track it was way better than the current gfs mid range. day 4-7. Be great to get another dependable mid range model
  3. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Heres a drone fly over of Interstate 40 in Duplin County. This puts in perspective how dire the inland flooding is.https://www.wfmynews2.com/video/new...a-flooded-i-40-in-duplin-county-nc/83-8255013
  4. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Sadly the death toll is up to 32 from Florence. and as feared the Cape Fear is setting new records for all time highs at many gauges. Heres a bfore and after pic I saw. This river flooding is going to be historic as many of us guessed it would be. Florence will be one of the top 10 costliest Hurricane disasters in our countrys history.
  5. NCSNOW

    Florence Observations

    Wilmington NC has officially had its wettest year on record going back to 1871. Still has over 3 months to go. Currently sitting at 86.22The state Record is in the Mountains. Roseman has that claim to fame at 129.6 set in 1964
  6. NCSNOW

    Florence Observations

    The Deep River hit a all time record Crest last night. The final chapter for Florence is fixing to be written this week, espeacilly SE NC for river flooding. Hate it for those along the Cape Fear, espeacilly in Wilmington as it will be pushing all time record flood crest. The forecast for 6 to 10 across Randolph unfortunately materialized.
  7. NCSNOW

    Florence Observations

    Take 64 west to Asheboro, then 49 south to Charlotte, then 77 south through Columbia.
  8. NCSNOW

    Florence Observations

    NWS. Issued flood warning ,not watch for about 6 counties in the triad till like 900 tonight
  9. NCSNOW

    Florence Observations

    Wghp was showing river Crest forecast. I think it was Tuesday or Wednesday, the Cape Fear River in Fayetteville is supose to Crest at 62. Flood stage is like 32. Yadkin River up triad way is supose to Crest like 33, flood stage is 17. The River Flooding that's coming early next week is gonna be worse than what's happened so far in tallying everything up from Florence. I'm afraid the worse is yet to come from this storm.
  10. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Official highest gust at Wilmington is 105mph. Off to the southwest she goes, probably get back over water in Brunswick county. Bad news for Holden Beach, my family vacation spot for 25 years straight.
  11. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Bad News is the sandwich effect and duration. That surge is gonna push back on all the river basins, large areas of sounds, the big rivers are and will be flowing in reverse direction for another 48 hours possibly. Then you got 48 hours of rain coming down with nowhere to drain to.
  12. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Anyone post the 4 day rainfall total for NC , out through Monday off GFS. Trying to see how much from the Raincaine , goofy thinks is gonna fall. Thanks
  13. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Posted by accident in the main thread, but you can watch the webcams at atlantic beach and see the waves really getting up now, occasionally kissing the underside of the pier.
  14. NCSNOW

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Atlantic Beach webcam, can see the waves starting to lap up and smack the bottom of the pier now,occasionally. Have to wait forever for the cam to pan around. But something to see as the storm rolls in.
  15. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    12z summary. Every model land falls New Hanover or Pender county NC. Did the canadian get onslow? Any way you slice it the surge is gonna be a nightmare from Wilmington up to ocracoke right past Morehead City. But despite this and the big wind, the flash flooding then river flooding to follow espeacilly in southern coastal plain is gonna be one for the ages I'm afraid. And that's saying alot after what's taken place just the past 20 years on our coast and enc. All eyes on euro and its ensembles to see if they kiss the same landfall point mentioned above by the 12z suite before doing the slow death crawl all weekend across SC
  16. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Oh its accurate. Go pull up the 12z Nam sim radar views, zoom in at landfall forecast and its breathtaking how massive the eye. These EWRC have made this into a monster size wise. You can fit almost All of Randolph,Guilford,Forsyth and Davidson county inside the Nam sim view of the eyewall. Its posted on the other board. Really puts size of storm in perspective.
  17. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    HWRF had this excat same track last night. Hit Morehead and went SW to Lumberton and spun itself out.
  18. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Yep, the euro and its end suite has done a very consistent job from late last week. Upper sc coast to Brunswick County,New Hanover county. None of this kiss Hatteras hula loop shenanigans.
  19. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    The timing and strength of the OV ridge is gonna decide who and where the hammer is gonna drop. Some folks gonna need that hammer to help construct an Ark.
  20. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Latest hwrf loop takes Florence in Morehead area and goes west, then southwest to Lumberton by Saturday
  21. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Well step 1 prep is complete: fired up the 18 year old powerboss 5500 and it fired on the second pull. Haven't yanked it in several years. Deal I made 18 years ago gets cheaper every big wx event. Anyway I'll hold off on step 2 till tommorow afternoon or Wednesday, Gas and propane gas for Grill.
  22. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Yep lines up well with NHC forecast. Best bet is a Brunswick,NewHanover county landfall to me, with Horry County and Onslow being the goalpost now. Kinda of narrowing those down.
  23. NCSNOW

    Hurricane Florence

    Off of masters site/blog: to 2012. Figure 5. Maximum of the "Maximum Envelope of Waters" (MOM) storm tide image for a composite maximum surge for a large suite of possible mid-strength Category 3 hurricanes (sustained winds of 120 mph) hitting at high tide (a tide level of 2.3) near the North Carolina/South Carolina border. What’s plotted here is the storm tide--the height above ground of the storm surge, plus an additional rise in case the storm hits at high tide. Empty brownish grid cells with no coloration show where no inundation is computed to occur. Inundation of 15 -22’ can occur in a worst-case scenario along most of the coast. Note that not all sections of the coast will experience this surge level simultaneously; the peak values would occur near and to the right of the storm's center where it makes landfall. The image was created using the National Hurricane Center’s Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model. See our storm surge inundation maps for the U.S. coast for more information. A storm surge of 15 - 20' possible from Florence The South Carolina and North Carolina coasts are extremely vulnerable to high storm surges, due to the large area of shallow water offshore. Two of the three historical Category 4 hurricanes that have hit this region generated a storm tide 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge (plus tide) gets above the normal high tide mark. If Florence is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall, it has the capability of generating a 20-foot surge along a 10 – 40 mile stretch of the coast where the right-hand eyewall comes ashore.
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