cbmclean

The last one I recall was in Jan/Feb 2021 which I believe led directly to the great arctic outbreak in the Midwest in February (see @Jebman's epic post). Of course that did nothign for the east coast. SSWEs are enormously complex like most weather phenomena but I have a simple mental model which I think is useful. A SSWE is either going to couple with the troposphere or not. If it doesn't couple, then of course it is useless to us. If it does couple, SOME area of the NH is in for an arctic outbreak, but where exactly that occurs is highly variable as many other have pointed out. I haven't done any research but based on comments I have seen from the twitterati as well as my own common sense I strongly suspect that the location of any outbreak is not just uniformly random but is influenced by the already existing hemispheric pattern. If so then it makes perfect sense that the SSWE in say 2021 did nothing for us because as we all know our base state has been heavily tilted to SER pattern, essentially acting as a shield discouraging arctic discharge in our neck of the woods. Given, the different base state this year I think it is entirely reasonable to hope for a higher probability of impact if the SSWE were to occur (and assuming that it couples). So I for one am still hoping for one.

Please do not provoke the SER. It achieved consciousness last year and it is aware of all mockery.

I think we've been kind of blocking it out because we've been wallowing in the misery of an endless SE ridge, but flyover country has had several notable cold outbreaks over the last few years. So it can still get cold, there at least. Here's the on that almost brought modern civilization to its knees in Texas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave

I suspect very, very rarely anywhere outside of Antarctica. Here is a copy of the "official" chart from WEATHER.GOV. You'd have to have below -45 F with > 60 mph winds.

I like the -NAO, but not a fan of the +EPO or -PNA. is this a "good" look?

Actually, I hear with quantum physics things just get kind of fuzzy.

Not to mention your beloved avocado.

If I supply the LP, I get a 10% cut on all of the snow generated thereby. Sort of a finders' fee. Deal?

It was actually cancelled back in late November.

I think the shot just after Christmas 2017 into January 2018 was very impressive. RDU spent almost 240 straight hours below freezing. There was ice on the edge of the sounds in the outer banks.

In the defense of all those obsessed with op run digital blue, I can remember a time or two in recent years when the Ensembles were touting a good look which either never materialized or else did so in a much degraded fashion. One of the first indications of the upcoming disappointment was the stubborn refusal of the ops to show any consistent blues; instead showing cutter after cutter after cutter.

I honestly didn't know that such a product existed. Of course I also just found out about specialized software that notifies someone's "accountability partner" if they visit a porn site. Maybe we can use it here and set it up to notify somebody if we look at an op past 120 hours.

So I put a certain person on ignore and I started noticing them pop up in my feed again. I thought maybe there was a site policy where ignore expires after a certain time or something. So I went to re-ignore and I see that he is still plainly shown as on my ignore list. Anybody have any idea what is up?

Isn't the CMC the #2 model after the euro as far as verification scores? I mean they are all useless at 240 hrs, but doesn't seem like there's any reason to discount the CMC more vs the GFS.

The NPAC low has disappeared? Chuck beware.

My general policy is to always assume that the warmest model is correct. Therefore, I believe the latest long-range GFS.

All it took was the next op run.

The answer is: maybe. Climate is hypothesized to be chaotic to a certain degree, although obviously on a different time scale than weather. Abrupt tipping points are possible in both chaotic and non-chaotic systems but I suspect systems with significant chaotic characteristics may be more prone.

Not if the signal degrades.

He is actually from very near my hometown of Hope Mills, NC which is in the "mid-south-eastern" portion of NC if that makes any sense. Our snow climatology is...poor. I believe he lives in New Mexico now. He seems to revel in torches for the entire east coast; not sure what caused that grudge.

Based on those pictures it does not seem very explosive. In order to significantly impact weather/climate the ash/SO2/water vapor has to be propelled high into the atmosphere.

Is there a place where you can get info on individual GEFS members easily. Since it is an NCEP product I assume it is free somewhere, but certainly not available on Tropical Tidbits and I am too cheap to spring for WeatherBell (or maybe to timid to ask the wife's permission ).

Some people do not agree with the very concept of model-based forecasting. The only thing one can do is note it respectfully and move on.

So the thing is, he is not making any specific predictions per se. Notice the wordings: "may not mean", "you may feel", "favorability/potential". If our hoped for pattern does indeed fail, he will surely crow "I told you so". If there is an epic snowy period, he'll just say: "I said 'may', not 'will'". I'd have more respect if he said something specific like: I predict that the advertised pattern will occur but very little snowfall will result..."

You offer an ineffable je ne sais quoi which I refer to as Mappiness ETA: And I say that as someone who contributes almost nothing myself.