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cbmclean

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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. cbmclean
    I have learned my lesson. If, Chuck isn't onboard, it isn't real.
  2. cbmclean
    What bothers me about that though, note that the mythical 60s were -PDO dominant, while the 80s and 90s were +PDO. Just from that graph what would make one think a +PDO was preferable?
  3. cbmclean
    We'll be well past fossil fuels, but the extra atmospheric CO2 will linger for several hundred thousand years and some are even theorizing that we have killed the glacial cycles altogether. I'm too depressed to look up the references but they are there. Of course I could easily see atmospheric carbon extraction becoming a viable technology in the next few hundred years. Wouldn't it be funny if people started harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere to make carbon nanotubes or some such and accidentally took too much!!
  4. cbmclean
    The thing is, even if you guys luck into something significant before the end, I think we have the "answer" you have been referring to. The Pacific base state is dominant. El Nino is powerless to help (to be fair, maybe it improves "shit the blinds" to simple "shut the blinds"). Kneel before King Babar.
  5. cbmclean
    As a churchgoer myself, not sure how I feel about Jesus having a Superbowl add.
  6. cbmclean
    Actually, Heavy water freezes at about 38.9 F, so we just need to replace all normal hydrogen with deuterium.
  7. cbmclean
    Might be time to break out the Downfall video: Das snow ist befell!!
  8. cbmclean
    I blame Canada.
  9. cbmclean
    Need to get him treatment immediately. Do you want him chasing snow in the base state of the 2040s?
  10. cbmclean
    The LR thread:
  11. cbmclean
    Does that include the derating you already factor in for a 2024 base state?
  12. cbmclean
    If you mean Babar, I am assuming the record low NA snow extent is correlated to him, but felt no need to go there.
  13. cbmclean
    Other guidance is colder, but still not as cold as it "should" be. Perhaps correlated to low continental snow extent?
  14. cbmclean
    Am I the only one that notices that PSU and Maestro have the exact same conversation about randomness every year.
  15. cbmclean
    Honest question for one wanting to learn: what do you like about it? I see a modest Idaho ridge and some SJ vorticity floating along. I know that is nice in general but what is especially exciting about it?
  16. cbmclean
    The mockery is due to its low verification scores. NWP is too complex to always just be able to "adjust for biases". Sometimes you can, like when you just mentally add 5 °F onto whatever the Canadian shows for 2m temps. Other times it's not that simple.
  17. cbmclean
    Is there a form we should fill out to have the GFS stripped of its Major model status? In my book if the ICON is beating you it's time to reasses.
  18. cbmclean
    I could easily see Mt. PSU getting a inches if it breaks right. Something that is hopefully a footnote to the 60"+ you rake in over the next month .
  19. cbmclean
    I live in Wilson NC right along I-95, (hang out here because the analysis is top notch). December 2018 just petered out in my area. i got 3 - 4 sloppy inches that then mostly got washed away when it changed to rain. Just a bit west it was better.
  20. cbmclean
    Can't trust people who change their name...
  21. cbmclean
    So in general are you optimistic on the period 2/19?
  22. cbmclean
    Wait, "reload period"? The pattern flip will just have completed by this time next week or a little later.
  23. cbmclean
    One of those mythical -NAO/-EPO combos that some say are physically impossible. Any need to worry about a lack of a +PNA?
  24. cbmclean
    Interesting to note that the Greenland Ridge is the only game in town if you want a HECS.
  25. cbmclean
    Well, it had recovered nicely but then it tanked again. Perhaps it was considerably thinner than normal. Zooming out from the eastern CONUS, the big story of the winter has been the absolute obliteration of the heartland's snow/cold by the December torch. It was mild here but it was quite muted compared to what they had. They did have a nice cold outbreak in January along with most of the country, but by then the damage had been done. As the years go by it becomes more and more apparent that the events of the "pre-winter" (late November) and the first third of winter can have significant impacts on the evolution of the rest of the winter.
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