I'm driving up to Fredericksburg the 12th - 14th for business. I expect you guys to show some hospitality for a SE forum visitor with a little bit of the ole white powder.
Difference between GFS op and GEFS lately set me looking for some info about ensembles in gneral. Some interesting info here.
https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=12962#.Y4uYXnbMKUk
Insert standard "Trust the warmest model" joke that's not really a joke.
Normally I would ignore long range op compared to ens, but maybe the higher resolution of the op is allowing it to "see" the super persistent PNA more accurately.
Picked up 0.64" yesterday afternoon in a nice downpour after just missing the morning stuff. Then got 1.81" overnight for an excellent 2.45" total in less than 24 hours. 4.31" for the month.