cbmclean

TT only lets us see out to 144 and I'm too cheap to get WB for now. Is it good or bad?

Starting off with a linear regression is not unreasonable even if we suspect that the observations are not IID. I'm not completely sold on the existence of cycles, at least on a decadal scale. Purely random data can show lots of clumps suggestive of patters which are not really there. It would be very interesting to put the data through some sort of Fourier analysis to see if there any real periodicity, but I don't have the tools for that.

I'm assuming everyone saw that Pele has passed away.

Yep- February of 2024.

That is true.

Shorts.

Has Ravensrule always made inappropriate posts?

I guess the idea to move statistics discussion here didn't work out. Stats haters can't blame me.

I dub thee God of WAR.

By the way, what is the definition of "Season Length"? First frost to last frost?

The previous raging ++++++AO season was 2019 - 2020, so that is 2 times in four seasons.

Thanks for the analysis Don.

Warning: adult language

I don't think that strong of a claim was ever made, at least I did not see it. I think the claim boils down to: "there is not statistical evidence that the snowfall at DCA is in a long-term decline", which is a much smaller scope. Now from what I have seen in discussion here, I am still very skeptical of that claim, but I am interested to here what that fellow has to say in detail.

Fell free to nerd out. I enjoy a good statistical analysis. And no, no one asked me to move the discussion here but I noticed some impatience with it in the main thread, so this gets it out of the way for those who are not interested.

So here is the probabilistic forecast for the NPJ state from https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/Probabilistic_NPJPD.php I'm trying to understand how to interpret thia graph So looks like we are going from a "poleward phase" to an "extended phase". But the magnitude in the extended phase is not really all that high (I am assuming that magnitude equates to distance from the origin).

Perhaps this is a good place to discuss DCA snow statistics? @WesternFringe I'd like to give your thesis a fair hearing. What specifically is your claim? From your latest post I see: "the data don’t show a huge downturn". Some specific questions: 1. "Data": Which dataset are you using? 2. "Don't show": What do quantitatively are you claiming the data shows or does not show? Which metrics have you calculated to evaluate that claim? From the recent debates in the thread it seems as if you were focusing on decadal averages of the 1980's vs the 2010s. Is that accurate? 3. "huge": What would constitute a huge downturn?

Thanks for the link, interesting stuff.

Thanks for the information, as always!

What factors impact the strength and position of the NPJ? From weather 101 I would expect the strength to positively correlate with the latitudinal temperature gradient. That would make me expect the NPJ to be getting weaker. So I guess that's not the whole story. I remember earlier seeing something about EAMT playing a role. I also remember one of @psuhoffman's "sweet dreams for @Maestrobjwa" posts from last year saying that the WPAC warm pool might be making it stronger? Since there's nothing to track, lets do a NPJ tutorial, if anyone has knowledge they'd like to share.

Eastern ridge definitely starting to be beat down by Jan 8th, but 2m anomalies still mostly warm through Jan 12. Not sure of that is residual from Pac Puke or just the new pattern is meh.

What hour are you looking at?

The CLT only applies if the variables are independent and identically distributed. I suspect that this does not apply to at least some aspects of weather/climate.

Celebration?

For one who is trying to learn, would you mind pointing out the features which indicate confluence?