cbmclean

We love you EJ, but if necessary we will trade your entire house for the snow...no offence.

Hmm, I believe you may be right. We've had so many duds lately they are all beginning to run together.

Happy anniversary @mappy. I believe this is 15?

Yes! 2020-21 was a dead ratter from the start. PSU called it in an epic (and soul-crushing) post on December 30th. However, at some point in late Jan or early Feb I think all guidance was showing a major pattern improvement which then collapsed when one small detail in the run-up went differently than they foresaw...PSU had an epic post about that as well. Lot of epic posts from PSU over this bad period. These years have been bad for snow but good for his literary output. And I mean that in an appreciative way.

That year was a scary one. The return of the -NAO after 10 years. I remember everyone being angry and puzzled when someone, maybe Ji, was complaining that despite the good 500 pattern temps were normal at best. Several, including myself, observed that we had had a record warm ++++AO episode in November that had really hurt the source regions, so that the December blocking had no cold to work with. That was true...but the disturbing thing is that a November torch shouldn't have destroyed the rest of winter like that. But it did, or if not destroy it, it certainly limited the upside severely.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. You don't have to work hard to convince me: I'm already living in elephant-land. In my area I think we've already passed the tipping point. The one bright side for me is I personally truly enjoy cold in and off itself, so I can get joy out cold dry periods like we just had. I know that's not your cup of tea. I do think there is some legitimate question of how much we might recover if we can get out of the super-PDO (and perhaps the +AMO?). I'm 100% certain that this isn't 100% of the problem, but is it 10%, 20%, 50%, 80%? If we could get back to 80% of say the 90s/2000s, I think that would be a victory.

Not sure if this will verify, but it it does, we deserve it!! During this -PDOom period, cold has been shunted away from the eastern Conus like we had a laser shield around us. Which, with the SER, we kind of have had a shield..

If Nigerian scammers started sending e-mails to east coast snow weenies to release feet of impounded Nigerian snow for a small up-front payment, I'm not completely confident we could all resist the temptation.

I see we have finally made it into phase 6 on the MJO as of yesterday. We had spent the entire month in 5. Looking to pick up speed and head into 7. Will that do anything meaningful for us? I have no idea.

You'll get dry cold, with some warm/wet interludes, and like it.

That's definitely the downside of relying on -EPO. Will we see "domestic" cold return to workability when/if the PDO shifts? Only time will tell.

The synergy between the jet extension and the -------PDO/SER is killer for us because when Canada starts to reload, the SER goes all Gandalf "YOU SHALL NOT PASS" and slows /prevents the cold from reaching us. This year there seems to be a tendency for -EPO/+TNH which we have seen can have the capability of squashing the SER so there may be reason, if not for optimism, at least reduced pessimism: maybe it will be different this year. Of course we might just end up back to cold and dry, but I personally prefer that to flametorch.

Wait, is that a stratospheric avocado in the other hemisphere?

What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus?

Why are you looking at 10 HP temp anomalies?

I remember that well. Like you said, the models were all over the place. I remember commenting that they we were definitely getting either tropical warmth or bitter cold, or bone dry or sopping wet. That time anyway the cold won and it was a memorable cold snap in eastern NC. It got down to 0 F at my house, ponds were freezing over, shore fast ice was forming in the outer banks! That was all she wrote for that winter though. The rest of January was mild. Looked like the MJO was timed to give a Fab Feb but it turned into an utter torch instead.

There are people who legitimately believe the earth is flat. There is literally no amount of evidence that will convince everyone of anything.

I certainly get why it is disturbing to see the eastern CONUS warm in that scenario, but isn't it expected for a strong -EPO to torch our source regions, with the huge ridge there and all? Again I'm not saying that it is not an ugly look, but I would not necessarily have keyed on the warmth in NW Canada.

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if "the elephant" was cooling instead? Every period the 30 year averages go down...the model plots dominated by blue anomalies...cold snaps overperforming...torches constantly disappearing in mid range rug pulls...patterns that used to lead to cold rain suddenly starting to yield 1-3 events...MJO doing an endless circle in 7-8-1-2...every year dreading the Easter cold spell... No I haven't thought about it either...

The temp graphics posted by PSU and Blizzard of 93 seemed incongruous so I went frame-by-frame on Tidbits. It appears that the 18Z GEFS mean is verbatim calling for cool nights but warm days in Dayy 11-16 timeframe. From about Christmas on, the 0Z/6Z timestamps are normal or cool but the 18Z timestamps are warm. Not sure if that is a realistic detail to be picked out by an ensemble but it's interesting.

I was actually just in the MidAtlantic forum. There is some discussion of potential similarity to the Boxing Day 2010 storm. Funny how we have such good memories of that here but for them it was a nightmare. So needless to say they are not overly enthused.

I knew this place would be rockin' after that run. Now sit and wait for the despair when it turns into a 65° rain in 6 hours.

Snow weenies in Wilson NC approve. Of course I am scheduled in to be in NC mountains for Xmas. In the very unlikely even that this were to ever happen, I might have to think about telling the wife to go ahead to her parents and me and the kids will stay home

Man the discobs threads are serious, they are reporting their snow totals in hundredths of an inch. edit: have to add the to make sure no one takes me seriously.