cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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DON'T GET SUCKED BACK IN!! They're just toying with us.
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I believe their record is 4" back in March 1954. Must have been an anomalous pattern.
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GFS and ICON both show Teeny-Tiny NW trends, but only in the N extent of the moisture, very little change in track. At this point it is far too little, too late. for inland folks in the Carolinas.
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Only need about 400 hundred more model cycles of this NW trend and Central NC will be back in the game!! Icon and FV3 starting an unstoppable trend going from .001 qpf to .01 qpf.
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It will still be extremely cold. Just not extremely extreme.
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Wasn't it was as away SE though?
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Got down to 16.3.
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Huh, neither looks good for NC, but 12Z is definitely less bad, unless you're talking the Outer Banks.
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Euro literally has snow in the GOM off Galveston and south of New Orleans.. Now THAT ladies and gentlemen, is suppressed.
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Oh com the f!cK on: 6.4" in the GOM of Galveston?
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That well-known Tallahassee-to-Savannah snow corridor. You know how being a snow weenie in the SE is? I am now actively rooting for the cold push to be less intense than the models say.
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I wouldn't say the storm is lost yet. Yeah the GFS lost it but right now it is not performing well. I think it is in 4th place behind the euro, CMC, and Ukie. They all have it so...
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whoops, yes thanks.
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Big 3 ensembles show the SER firmly in charge at the end of their runs. Hopefully they are hallucinating a canonical nina response.
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In the MA thread there has been discussion about how bad the GFS has been performing lately, besides the euro, CMC, UKIE, the Euro AI is also trouncing it. Perhaps time to relegate it to the JV along with the ICON and the JMA.
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We would be better served to look at the medians anyway, as they are not skewed by the outrageous totals of a few outliers. Not sure if any site provides the medians?
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This might sound silly but my eyes have been dazzled by all the pretty maps; what is the actual timeframe of the event that we are trying to reel in? 1/21?
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That would be perfect for a northwest trend if it was 2 days out.
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Yeah but it generally tends to waffle more back and less forth, Needless to say, we are rooting for the GFS solution against the Euro, which is not a nice place to be :(.
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Ouch. Now THAT is a warm nose. It's like 55 F at 800 HP.
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We're getting toO exuberant. The letdown will be painful.
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What is this thing called "snow" of which you speak. We in ENC do not understand...
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I see we have recovered from the sugar high of those back-to-back GFS/Euro runs yesterday. All hope is still lost; carry on.
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Still looks like the GEFS and EPS are predicting the "Pacific Ridge" regime in the extended. I'm less sure of this now than I was before, though. Could this be the inverse of previous El Nino years (think 2018-19, and 2023-24) where the extended guidance endlessly spat out a canonical Nino response?
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Any idea what is causing that extreme anomaly?
