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Everything posted by cbmclean

  1. I like that little tiny cool anomaly over the UP of Michigan. They are going to get their snow regardless.
  2. Well luckily, one of these seems to be on tap. It's a crap shoot as to whether it will help or not. But it seems to be coming, nonetheless.
  3. No, If we are screwed, I would prefer to know it ahead of time, so I appreciated it. It was still sad, though. Speaking of Mersky, I haven't seen him around lately.
  4. I am not disputing your larger point about the danger of the Pacific Doom Blob (it still haunts my dreams from last year). You have mentioned our unfortunate antecedent conditions. Maybe this look CAN produce, but only if it is not preceded by a month-long continent-wide torch? It would be interesting to go back and look at the preceding month or two before the snow periods of 1993, 1996, and 2010.
  5. My soul still has the wrinkle marks from where it was crushed by that post.
  6. Last sustained cold to affect me was late December 2017/early January 2018. That was a legit cold period here, and I think up you guys way as well. Not sure where it's source was. Also, there was a pretty nice outbreak that hit the Midwest in Jan 2019, but never made it here.
  7. You have mentioned that you don't feel as if super cold cross-polar flow is in the cards this year. What is your feeling about the feasibility of simply getting the Pacific to be mediocre enough to not overpower perfect NAO blocking?
  8. I don't post many maps. I am actually a novice myself, but I love to learn. Yes on those 500 MB maps the AN anomalies are various shades of red.
  9. I stole this graphic from the post that PSU made to start off the snow climo thread last year. He has marked the EPO domain. An EPO ridge is just AN 500 MB heights in the EPO region.
  10. Thank you very much, GEOS5ftw, this is exactly the additional details that I have been looking for. I am intensely interested in learning more about this. If I was looking to invest some hobby money into technician literature about this topic, is there a term for this sub-specialty of meteorology? I don't mean modeling. I mean understanding why air masses obtain the temperature characteristics that they do, and how the get moved to different locations. For example, what made the Feb 1899 airmass so cold in its source region, and how did it get unleashed into the lower 48 with so little attenuation?
  11. I assumed North Balti Zen was being tongue-in-cheek. It was made abundantly clear that PSU did not consider that outcome to be likely.
  12. No, Jacksonville does see a few flakes once a decade or so, more like Miami.
  13. I actually despise working from home. I am unable to do half of what I need to, and the half I can technically do online is much less efficient because of network issues and difficulties in communicating with coworkers. I go in as often as possible.
  14. That's actually the part of meteorology that really interests me. I find cyclogensis, precipitation, winds speeds, only mildly interesting, but I am fascinated by temperature. Unfortunately there just isn't a whole lot of easily available information out there beyond the simplistic guidelines we have just been discussing. I need to find a text book on "Atmospheric temperature patterns and 500 MB analysis".
  15. That makes perfect sense, but the plots posted by PSU showed the Euro depicting a negative average 500 MB anomaly in the eastern conus while simultaneously having a positive 2m temp anomaly. I am specifically referring just to those two plots. Anyway I realize its probably related to factors well beyond my knowledge at this time. And I am hoping it doesn't come true.
  16. Thanks for the input. I have been very frustrated by the lack of available information about the more complex relationship between geopotential height anomalies and temp anomalies. All the information online is just "areas under negative gph anomalies tend to be cool, areas under positive gph anomalies tend to be warm" and leave it at that. Obviously the crux of the matter is in the "tends" part. it's obviously not a 1-to-1 relationship. But what is the actual relationship?
  17. I want to make it clear that I don't think I'm smarter than the physics of the model. I'm just perplexed by the complexity of the relationship between 500 mb anomalies and temperature anomalies. The simplistic relationship that is taught to newbies is that low geopotential heights generally equate to low temps. Obviously it must be more complex than that.
  18. Is there a "positive feedback loop" for cutters and warmth? If a storm cuts and pulls up a lot of warmth, does it tend to act to reinforce the baroclinic gradient being too far west for our liking?
  19. Well, I was referring to the discussion we were having about the disconnect between the advertised H5 pattern shown for days 15 -22 on the latest Euro weeklies versus the advertised 2m temp anomalies for the same time. So according to that model we will have a 7 day period with an negative average 500 MB anomaly yet we will simultaneously have a positive 2 m temp anomaly. How is that physically possible?
  20. OK, so atmospheric physics questions: how is it physically possible for a region to have a sustained period of below normal 500 MB heights yet also have above normal temps over the same period? As I have mentioned elsewhere I do not have a strong background in meteorology or any serious model chops but I have read a fair bit and have seen it stated over and over in explanations that the geopotential height can be considered as a proxy for the average temperature for the parcel of air between the surface and the height level. So cooler parcels mean lower heights, and vice versa. How can we have low geopotential heights for a long period of time yet have warm temperatures in that parcel of air?
  21. So what is the difference between "high heights", a 'ridge" and a "block"? I am not a met or even a serious weenie but I have a pretty strong math/science background so feel free to include technical details in a response (if you fee like it; I know red tags often have better things to do then respond to novice requests).
  22. Take it from a lifelong North Carolinian; he's right.
  23. I think that that is completely reasonable, but even if it were to occur I think there is a chance that something more complex than simply a warmer base state may be involved. I mean, it's not as if the who NH is warm. Incredibly almost the entirety of Russia, from the Finish border to the Pacific is well below normal. SOMETHING seems to be keeping the cold air completely shifted to Eurasia, which to me is a different situation than there just not being any cold.
  24. All humor aside, what is the mechanism of what is going on? I see a big gulf of Alaska vortex. Does that also flood our source regions with mild pacific air as well? Is that the cause of this monstrosity?
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