cbmclean
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Everything posted by cbmclean
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Is it just me or do perfect track storms become more common lately when the CONUS is flooded with Pac Puke? I know I know; the MA used to be able overcome less than ideal Pacifics, but not any more.
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A link to Dr. Simon Lee's page documenting his weather "regimes". https://simonleewx.com/north-american-weather-regimes/ Obviously we are about to embark on a very robust "Pacific Trough" regime. There is some hint of a potential transition to a "Greenland High" regime starting between Christmas and New Years, but it is by no means a certainty.
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Must be nice. The I-95 corridor has been absolutely shafted. Virtually nothing here.
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That spin move Wallace pulled out was impressive. He definitely hit the circle button on his controller.
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@CAPE @WxUSAF @psuhoffman Do you guys share in today's general despair? Looking at the big three ensembles, not sure that I see anything worse so much as just a failure to see anything better. Perhaps I am just impatient.
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The mood has turned ugly today.
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Not necessarily. It takes mental discipline and an analytical mind. Neither is in over abundance.
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Couple a' things: 1. Everyone on here has been burned by can-kickage, especially over the last 7 years, Many of us vividly remember the 2019 El Nada vividly. So at the first hint of CK, we get the sweats. It's like the smell of smoke to a herd of spooked horses. 2. You have a history of accuracy in predictions. Lately many(most?) of the predictions have been of doom, simply because we have been a prolonged stretch of total suck. When you note even a potential for concern, the wise among us take note. Case in point: the famous December 30th 2020 post where you described that, based on ALL historical evidence: we were in for fail. And fail we did. So, take it as a compliment.
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I haven't seen any of the 500 HP verification scores lately. There was a time not too long ago when the GFS had dropped to third behind the CMC. Is that no longer true?
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@psuhoffman mentioned that as "Phase 2" of the master plan. Meanwhile GEPS has some hints of ridging in the EPO PNA domain but very subtle. I hate waiting on pattern changes. ETA: Correction, I should have said PNA domain, not EPO. Alaska still troughy.
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I'm honestly scared to even look at the ensembles today. Someone braver than me: has the can-kicking started, or has it held steady?
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I am hesitant to use ignore in general. For one thing I am always concerned about setting myself up in an echo chamber, only hearing things I want to hear (like a conservative who only watched Fox News or a liberal who only watches MSNBC). Maybe I should make an exception for those who post 384 hour ops with the intent of causing distress.
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And then there is ldub23...
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I don't remember him being like that previously, maybe I just didn't follow him on twitter (er...X) back then.
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I would agree with the asshole part but not sure I could call him disingenuous. He seems both sincere and knowledgeable. He just seems like the kind of person that would enjoy stopping by an orphanage to tell the kids that statistically speaking they are likely to have difficult lives.
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Monsieur Webb is beginning to irk me. Of course lately he hasn't been wrong any time he mocked us with predictions of warmth.
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Not sure what the East Coast snow weenies did to him, but man that is unseemly.
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So in other words, the full latitude Pac trough directed mild maritime air into our source regions? That makes sense (if that is correct). Thanks!
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Yes I understand that. But why is there no cold air? What is the mechanism by which the warm Pacific air is dominating the CONUS?
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Honest question from one trying to learn. What makes this a bad antecedent pattern? To my unlearned eye I see a +PNA. The EPO domain is complicated but certainly no pig Alaska vortex. I see what looks like the TPV in Norther Quebec. (On the other hand I do see it looks like a +AO.) What is the mechanism for this being bad? Note I am not challenging that this IS bad, just trying to understand what makes it so.
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Honest question, but isn't the migration of the core of the low to the Aleutians what we want to see? That seems like that is what it is doing.
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Their stats guy determined if they get to December 5th with less than 10' of snow, their winter is going to suck.
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I haven't been looking at them in detail the last several days; would you say the transition is continuing to move up in time, or is it always at day 15?
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I'm still not sure if I am ready to live in a world where @Ji is the optimist trying to talk people off the cliff.
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Ouch, that hurt.
