cbmclean

At this range, looking too cold is usually a good thing.

No explanation, but I have to mention that someone posted JB saying he thought a trough would retrograde from the east. Maybe he was on to something.

It's their first 4+ snowfall in several years, so I am happy for them. I root for everyone to get snow as long as it doesn't directly steal from MBY which is not usually an issue.

To be frank it makes me nervous. We want the pac jet to extend enough to keep the Aleutian ridge at bay but too much and North American cold goes bye bye. It's a delicate balance.

I like some of the trends for later in Jan on the "weeklies", but the low heights currently progged for AK on the EPS leave me unenthused for the first 10 days or so.

I'm just going to save Chuck the trouble of posting: 507 dm in Alaska means not cold enough.

No kidding; I was never sold on Tua even coming out of college. I don't question his heart but he just doesn't have the body to take NFL pounding, and it seems as if he just doesn't have the skill to do the reads if his first target is taken away. But he had that good year at just the right time and they threw ridiculous money at him. I was kind on interested in getting a fan's eye view of Lamar though. For an outsiders view it seems as if he is stagnating. Maybe it's just the injuries or the line play or a combination. I wonder if he might benefit from a change of scenery.

So my Dolphins are apparently a rumored trade destination for Lamar. Hypothetically, if it were to happen, would Ravens fans be sad to see him go? That will tell me a lot about whether I should be hopeful or not.

Honest question: why are the low heights over AK not bad in this instance?

The models saw this current nationwide warm spell coming, and it happened. The NE seaboard was definitely spared the worst of it, but we can't say the warmth didn't verify.

Finished dead last in my fantasy league this year. Lamar was my QB. Justin Jefferson was my top scoring threat.

Believe me, I have no doubt we could go right back into the oven. I'm more just reminding myself that even though Ops seemed to catch on to the pattern improvement, I can't just ignore them if they show warmth.

Live by the ops, die by the ops. You didn't think we were going to get a nice uncomplicated cold pattern did you?

I can't remember which year it was, one of those snowless years in the 1990's, but I remember one day with highs in the 70's, the next day was in the 30's, then the day after back in the 70's. I even remember there being a political cartoon in the paper referencing it.

"Alaska" is a pretty broad location; whereabouts are you? Has it been noticeably warm, or dry or both?

I'm honestly rooting for Charlotte and the foot hills second after MBY. I know it's been a rough stretch and I know that last year watching the coastal plain (and Gulf Coast for that matter) must have rubbed salt in the wounds.

Not trying to become his self-appointed defender him but I really don't think he's all that inconsistent in general. As some of you said I think that recent post cancelling winter may have been a bad idea unduly influenced by his desire to troll the east coast weenies. I wouldn't recommend ignoring him going forward. Also if (and I think it's a big if) and the current trends continue into a legitimately good pattern, it will be a complete collapse of Mid/Long range guidance almost across the board. A lot of people will be surprised. We're used to this happening in the opposite direction (see Feb 2023)

Man that's ugly. Interestingly, not as much of an upward trend as i was expecting. Also, what the heck was going on in 1983? I was two at the time so had no memory.

I believe someone once said that was atmospherically impossible . Seriously though I try not to get to down when the extended products look bad, so it seems I should also not get excited when they show good.

One thing that throws a monkey wrench into assessing vs climo is the potential ENSO impact though. I believe that La Nina's have a tendency to be more front loaded and can often be quite toasty in February (keeping in mind that "frontloaded" is relative; just because December is the least bad doesn't mean it's good.) On the other hand a good El Nino might be just hitting it's stride at the start of February. I currently have no idea how impactful or not the fading Nina is going to be going forward. If it couples strongly, then there is reason to be concerned about late Jan and Feb.

I must have missed him discussing the TNH+. He seemed oddly quiet in early December. I believe he was having some health issues so I ascribed it to that. Maybe it just wasn't popping up on my feed for some reason.

I can't remember who it was but someone in this subforum cancelled this winter, last year.

I don't think it has much to do with his location. He has a semi-permanent feud with east coast snow weenies and he likes to savor their tears as they torch. The problem is I have followed him off an on since 2023 and he seems to be extremely knowledgeable. He dives "under the hood" into the mechanics of the synoptic scale of the atmosphere and doesn't just rip and read from the models. In 2023-24 he was down on the canonical nino pattern appearing in late Jan/Feb, and he was correct. Last year he was up on the possibilities for SE snow and he was right about that as well. Like Bob says if he knew it all he'd be rich as an energy trader, but if he is making bold claims, I would look into his basis before dismissing him off hand.

To me he's noise at this point when he's discussing cold. It's when he starts throwing in the towel that I pay attention.

I hadn't forgotten 2022; it's what I had in mind when I mentioned the sharp but transient cold. Now maybe I'm being a little unfair to it because it wasn't a one-day wonder as most of that week was bitter. And I enjoyed it thoroughly. But there was clearly no hope of any storm activity and at the time we knew it was limited duration and we could see the suck barreling down on us like a freight train. We didn't know that it was going to last the rest of the winter though.