cbmclean

Thanks for the info! I was assuming that the ULL was acting like the primary low of a Miller B and that the low of the coast was the secondary. I guess that is not the case? Were the ULL and coastal low just coincidental to each other?

Man I feel bad for the plains westward; total dud winter for them.

Traditionally I have focused more on teleconnections for cold; and I am pretty ignorant about storm dynamics. I know that Miller A/B are ideal models and most noreasters are hybrids. Is it correct to say that the recent storm was pretty firmly in the Miller B category: a LP coming from the midwest transferring to a coastal low? I understand the general idea of the dry slot coming from the gap between the winding down of the primary and the winding up of the secondary. Is a dry slot an absolute in these types of storms? Are there conditions which lead to smaller or larger dry slots? What factors determine the location of the slot? If the coastal low had formed closer to the coast would the dry slot have been more towards the west, or would it have merged with the precip from the primary low leading to a smaller dry slot (or no dry slot)? I appreciate anyone who feels like taking time to share some knowledge.

Even the most sciency of scientists have their moments... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pauli_effect

7" on the ground here in Wilson, undoubtedly lost some to compaction overnight with this powdery snow. Dry slot had me sweating bullets yesterday afternoon but turned out ok.

Amazingly, I think we have a shot at a rare Dec-Jan-Feb hat trick below average.

I was just talking about for Wilson.

This could end up being the best storm since I moved here in 2008 excepting Boxing Day 2010, and ironically I missed that one since I was visiting my wife's family in Old Fort. I did get a white Christmas out of the deal.

Past 4" now. With the bands on radar I think 6" is an attainable goal.

Hitting the lower end of Greg Fishel's 4 - 7 band is definitely within reach.

It's the kind of crow that I think we would all love to feast on.

Really hoping the coastal can fling in a bit more moisture than currently progged.

That map is saying 5" of additional snow from 7 PM tonight.

Legit snow in Wilson.

Finally some stickage in Wilson. Much of what has fallen earlier has actually been graupel. Wasn't expecting that.

HRRR slowly moistening the dry slot slightly this evening. (Comparing 16z to 17z).

Which site do you use for radar?

Not sure anyone can deny at this point there will be a relative minimum in the center of NC. The question is will there be a complete collapse of the coastal so virtually 0 qpf gets thrown into the entire NE quadrant of NC. That's a complete shocker for me and I'm going to have to see proof if anybody comes out after the fact and says they saw it coming.

The regionals are much more aggressive with the coastal and as a result have much more QPF from Raleigh East. All we can do now is hope the CAMs are completely lost in that regard.

What we're seeing on the CAMs isn't a dry slot so much as a complete failure of the coastal to do, well anything. Not sure what is going on there.

WTF, the 3k NAM just cancelled the coastal altogether.

Alright...occlude now dang it!!

Um...sharp cutoff to the SW there.

Roxboro should be at 103.2%.

Hawaii sometimes gets snow on the top of Mauna loa.