bigtenfan

Taking it a bit further the entire 384 GFS run which takes us to Sept 5 shows very little if any threats. Even the African wave train going forward through the 384 run looks pretty quiet for this time of the year

Thank you so much for the explanation

I am pretty much a novice on the tropics. That said being a Florida homeowner certainly keeps my interest in the tropics up. Looking at the GFS Northern Africa region I do not see parade of waves crossing the continent over the next 15 days which takes us the the last third of August. Anything that does manage to exit the coast looks like it is swallowed up by SAL before it can get big enough to at least act as the sacrificial lamb for future waves. SSTs also look to be BN in the MDR. I have to believe that all of this argues for a tranquil Cape Verde season. If there is going to be an active CV season when does the parade of large waves across Africa usually start? Thanks in advance

Looking at the 18z GFS snowfall map for the entire northern half of the country I can't ever remember seeing a snowier map this late in the season.

I think that even if the air temp gets above freezing the ground is so cold from the past few days that anything that falls will freeze pretty quickly.

My Guess she is relying on the 12K Nam unless she has early access to the UK or Euro

Excellent write up.

Thank you so much for a very educational( for me anyway) answer.

Hopefully the modeled look is transient like this current 'epic December pattern' looks like it will be. So we have transient/progressive on our side anyway. Is it true that in La Nina years once the pattern flips to unfavorable it is slow to flip back if at all. 1989-1990 comes to mind.

How reliable are the SREF from this far out?

Actually the JMA had its 15 minutes of glory back in Feb 2006 when it was the first to sniff out the HECS that month that set what was at that time the record snowfall for NYC. Just goes to prove that a broken clock is right twice a day.

Actually with our seats right under the over hang of the press box in the last row of sec WG and the wind blowing in the right direction our seats remained relatively dry considering how hard it was raining. It could have been a lot worse. Did you see the rain at the Ohio State game in Columbus?

Thank you so much. My seats are in WG . Last row. I actually spend the game standing with my back leaning on the press box.

Thank you so much. Not as bad as I feared.

Changing the subject for a moment: I am planning on coming to PSU this week end for the Nebraska game. How bad is the rain supposed to be? Thanks in advance