bigtenfan

I am a novice at this but in the past hasn't there been a pattern of storms approaching the FL panhandle to weaken at the last minute due the the terrain in the N GOM?

I can't help to think that Florence still has a trick or two up its sleeve and has yet to show all of its cards.

Even starting further south the trailing system at least very early on looks most likely to be a fish storm as well.

Actually looking at the 12Z Euro it shows that Florence has no less than 3 siblings behind it. The first 2 looks to have gotten past 20N before hitting 50w. Using what I think is the Don Sutherland rule those 2 should not be a threat to the US Mainland. the 3rd one looks to be too early to tell.

After last season as a Florida home owner I have no complaints about that.

Taking it a bit further the entire 384 GFS run which takes us to Sept 5 shows very little if any threats. Even the African wave train going forward through the 384 run looks pretty quiet for this time of the year

Thank you so much for the explanation

I am pretty much a novice on the tropics. That said being a Florida homeowner certainly keeps my interest in the tropics up. Looking at the GFS Northern Africa region I do not see parade of waves crossing the continent over the next 15 days which takes us the the last third of August. Anything that does manage to exit the coast looks like it is swallowed up by SAL before it can get big enough to at least act as the sacrificial lamb for future waves. SSTs also look to be BN in the MDR. I have to believe that all of this argues for a tranquil Cape Verde season. If there is going to be an active CV season when does the parade of large waves across Africa usually start? Thanks in advance

Looking at the 18z GFS snowfall map for the entire northern half of the country I can't ever remember seeing a snowier map this late in the season.

I think that even if the air temp gets above freezing the ground is so cold from the past few days that anything that falls will freeze pretty quickly.

My Guess she is relying on the 12K Nam unless she has early access to the UK or Euro

Excellent write up.

Thank you so much for a very educational( for me anyway) answer.

Hopefully the modeled look is transient like this current 'epic December pattern' looks like it will be. So we have transient/progressive on our side anyway. Is it true that in La Nina years once the pattern flips to unfavorable it is slow to flip back if at all. 1989-1990 comes to mind.

How reliable are the SREF from this far out?