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bigtenfan

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  1. Very bullish forecast to say the least. Even more so than JB
  2. bigtenfan

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I am a novice at this but in the past hasn't there been a pattern of storms approaching the FL panhandle to weaken at the last minute due the the terrain in the N GOM?
  3. bigtenfan

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    I can't help to think that Florence still has a trick or two up its sleeve and has yet to show all of its cards.
  4. bigtenfan

    2018 General Tropical Discussion

    Even starting further south the trailing system at least very early on looks most likely to be a fish storm as well.
  5. bigtenfan

    Tropical Storm Isaac

    Actually looking at the 12Z Euro it shows that Florence has no less than 3 siblings behind it. The first 2 looks to have gotten past 20N before hitting 50w. Using what I think is the Don Sutherland rule those 2 should not be a threat to the US Mainland. the 3rd one looks to be too early to tell.
  6. bigtenfan

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    After last season as a Florida home owner I have no complaints about that.
  7. bigtenfan

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Taking it a bit further the entire 384 GFS run which takes us to Sept 5 shows very little if any threats. Even the African wave train going forward through the 384 run looks pretty quiet for this time of the year
  8. bigtenfan

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Thank you so much for the explanation
  9. bigtenfan

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    I am pretty much a novice on the tropics. That said being a Florida homeowner certainly keeps my interest in the tropics up. Looking at the GFS Northern Africa region I do not see parade of waves crossing the continent over the next 15 days which takes us the the last third of August. Anything that does manage to exit the coast looks like it is swallowed up by SAL before it can get big enough to at least act as the sacrificial lamb for future waves. SSTs also look to be BN in the MDR. I have to believe that all of this argues for a tranquil Cape Verde season. If there is going to be an active CV season when does the parade of large waves across Africa usually start? Thanks in advance
  10. bigtenfan

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Looking at the 18z GFS snowfall map for the entire northern half of the country I can't ever remember seeing a snowier map this late in the season.
  11. bigtenfan

    January 8th Light Wintry Mix Event OBS

    I think that even if the air temp gets above freezing the ground is so cold from the past few days that anything that falls will freeze pretty quickly.
  12. bigtenfan

    January 3-4 "Threat"

    My Guess she is relying on the 12K Nam unless she has early access to the UK or Euro
  13. bigtenfan

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Excellent write up.
  14. bigtenfan

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Thank you so much for a very educational( for me anyway) answer.
  15. bigtenfan

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2017-18 OBS Thread

    Hopefully the modeled look is transient like this current 'epic December pattern' looks like it will be. So we have transient/progressive on our side anyway. Is it true that in La Nina years once the pattern flips to unfavorable it is slow to flip back if at all. 1989-1990 comes to mind.
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