bigtenfan

Crazy weather all around. I was at West Palm Beach airport yesterday afternoon and there was 2.66 inches officially in 36 minutes or almost 4.5 inches per hour.

Looks like the 12z GFS never really fully develops it and takes a weak system harmlessly out to sea

Pretty to look at and doesn't mess up the roads. Not the worst thing in the world.

Actually that may have been Evan Myers

Joe Soble. Joe Lundberg Evan Abrams

How many digital feet of snow has the Para had this winter so far? I would estimate several feet .

I think that the entire concept of using analogs is a somewhat flawed science now as many of the analogs are from years when the planet and more specifically the oceans was not as warm of a place as they are now.

That looks like more than a tick north. About 70 miles or so

Very bullish forecast to say the least. Even more so than JB

I am a novice at this but in the past hasn't there been a pattern of storms approaching the FL panhandle to weaken at the last minute due the the terrain in the N GOM?

I can't help to think that Florence still has a trick or two up its sleeve and has yet to show all of its cards.

Even starting further south the trailing system at least very early on looks most likely to be a fish storm as well.

Actually looking at the 12Z Euro it shows that Florence has no less than 3 siblings behind it. The first 2 looks to have gotten past 20N before hitting 50w. Using what I think is the Don Sutherland rule those 2 should not be a threat to the US Mainland. the 3rd one looks to be too early to tell.

After last season as a Florida home owner I have no complaints about that.

Taking it a bit further the entire 384 GFS run which takes us to Sept 5 shows very little if any threats. Even the African wave train going forward through the 384 run looks pretty quiet for this time of the year