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About bigtenfan

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  1. When is the last time it was several degrees warmer in Phila than Boca Raton FL on Christmas morning?
  2. Nothing like having a 995 low in a very good spot and having the 540 line north of Quebec City.
  3. I have a flight out of FLL tomorrow at 10.45am What are my chances?
  4. More like a moderate ts at worst. 10m winds in the 30 to 40 kt range. Pressure in the mid to high 980s
  5. As a homeowner in Boca Raton I would love to see the season be over but the reality is that we are not even into October yet and many of these late season home brew storms develop quickly and are not foreseen by the global models. Bottom line: You may be right and I certainly hope that you are but it is WAY too early to take any victory laps.
  6. Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib season about to start what makes you say that that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.
  7. Does anybody know if the NWS has a database of lightning strikes containing the exact day . time and location of lightning strikes? thank you in advance.
  8. Early guidance is certainly fish looking. Re-curving between 50 and 55 west
  9. I was just comparing on an apples to apples basis the same scribbled blob from the previous update. The little north curve can make a major difference downstream.
  10. Big difference in the initial NHC projected track of the wave about to come off of Africa. It looks to have gone from a potential Caribbean cruiser to a potential fish storm.
  11. No complaints from this Palm Beach County homeowner
  12. It is not just TC genesis that the models are having trouble with. I think that their accuracy on winter storms has declined as well. Long range forecasting while never great has almost gone totally off the rails. If i had to take a guess I would say that the models are not yet skilled enough to properly handle the pace of global warming. Many of the analogs that are being used are based on a cooler planet overall than we have now.
  13. It does look like there is going to be a lot of activity in the next 2 weeks plus. The question is where they end up going. To my untrained eye based on the Maritime High it would appear that any threat to the EC would be from the Carolinas or Mid Atlantic northward. Is my thinking correct on that?