bigtenfan

Chances down to 50% in latest NHC discussion.

Looking at the 12z guidance it would appear to my untrained eye that the GFS GEFS Euro and the Hurricane models HWRF and HMON have all either lost or dissipated Inv92 over the next several days at least as far as it being a threat to the CONUS. The Canadian has its usual wacky solution with a 1938 style track. The UK has what looks to be a weak system in the northern Bahamas at hour 144. I admit that I am new to this but am I reading theses models correctly? thanks in advance

While i do not think that any of the models have been reliable this tropical season so far if I had to choose one to rely on it would be either the Euro or the UK

From this distance the forecast will change many times. That said it is interesting that the GFS 18z had a doomsday storm for the Carolinas, the 00z has a somewhat weaker storm just off the NC coast and the 06Z looks to have lost the storm all together. The Euro has been somewhat more consistent with yesterday's 12z carrying the storm through the Florida straights heading into the GOM and the 00Z having the storm into the GOM albeit taking a slightly more southern route to get there.

I don't know about that. i thought that Matthew last year would fit the criteria of an interesting storm to follow.

Unless I am reading it wrong ( and I am very much a novice at this but I am here to learn) it looks like the 12z Euro only has a very weak system exiting stage right between 120 and 144 hr.

The 6z gfs now takes it around 300 miles or so off the east coast of Florida to just near the outer banks to just off the east coast not appearing to actually make landfall. Obviously this will probably change with each run for probably the next 5-7 days or so before it zones in on a solution

Latest GFS guidance seems to bring this into the eastern Gulf as a much weaker storm near the very end of the run. GFS Para has nothing approaching the CONUS during that time period.

Looking at the long term GFS on Tropical Tidbits it looks like the GFS OP has something right off the coast of Florida around day 10 or so. I do not see it anywhere else though.

That is a pretty aggressive forecast. 3 majors in October!

Wow. If we can't get a decent winter it feels to good to see the California drought be dented.

I was watching the local news for NYC and they have a 6-12 inch swipe all the way from NYC SW to everything east of Phila

As a practical matter how often does this set up work out? Probably not too often.

Based on the Euro's timing of the frontal passage on Wednesday there may be record highs on Wednesday.

Could not agree more. It seems like all winter the "pot of gold" has always been at the end of the rainbow and the end of the rainbow is always 10-15 days away