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cptcatz

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  1. 18z GFS is the most bullish yet with a long tracking (albeit weak) MDR storm heading towards Florida
  2. GFS coming in with the exact same thinking as euro
  3. The long rage GEFS continues to show activity signals the second week of August
  4. Some very faint signals on the GFS, GEFS, and Euro for something to form in the MDR around August 4-7. Not much but more than what we've seen in the past few weeks.
  5. 90L has fizzled but there's an impressive burst of convection north of Hispaniola.
  6. Recon found a definite center with a small pressure drop right in the middle, but without convection overhead it's not gonna be named.
  7. A severe storm just rolled through Boca Raton. Got a severe thunderstorm warning with a mention of a tornado threat but no specific tornado warning/watch. Even so, I just recorded these videos over my house of cloud rotation.
  8. Looks like a pretty solid structure, better than TD's and TS's I've seen. Definitely a nowcasting situation since this is way ahead of any of the models.
  9. 90L has been designated and it's looking pretty juicy
  10. Doesn't look like anything will come of this, and even if it does it will probably mean a rainy day for Bermuda.
  11. Who cares about what they're x'ing? All it means is that they're keeping an eye on it and no one even knows except for the hardcore weather nerds who keep track of these things.
  12. Can you explain the implications of this picture?
  13. Yep. I was supposed to move here to Boca Raton on the day Irma hit. Luckily I was able to delay the move a week so I missed the storm but saw the damage which was pretty significant but nothing compared to what the models were showing a couple days prior having it move up the east coast instead of the west coast. Since then, we got nothing in 2018, then had the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin barreling down at us coming to a screeching halt and turning right before hitting us. 2020, the most active season on record (which the local media made sure we knew), gave us a hurricane warning from Isaias which ended up causing a brisk breeze, and big scary Eta which gave us a good soaking of some moderately flooding rain. I'm well aware of the balls we're dodging being I love to track hurricanes, but there are so many new people in Florida that have moved down in the past year or two who went through the false alarms of Dorian and 2020 and are not prepared for a real hurricane strike. Of course the old timers, especially those who have been here since 2004, let alone 1992, know what to do, but it'll be interesting to see complacent the newcomers are when something finally hits us.
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