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  1. I know this is hour 384 of the GFS (which means nothing), but this is quite a screenshot!
  2. We now have four straight GFS runs (yesterday 18Z, today 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z) showing a big tropical storm in the Gulf on June 7.
  3. Euro getting on board with a Gulf storm first week of June...
  4. Looks like the GFS is getting on board with some of the other forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis at the beginning of June.
  5. Looks like the 12z GFS has it almost making landfall as a cat 1.
  6. Looks like Arthur should be here in the next couple days... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 240 PM EDT Thu May 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 1. A trough of low pressure over the Straits of Florida is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. The system is then forecast to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also possible in the Florida Keys, southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or two. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are in effect. See products from your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Forecaster Brown
  7. The GFS has consistiently been showing a pretty strong hurricane forming in the Pacific and making landfall in Central America. Now the last two runs (May 8 00z and 06z) have it reforming in the Caribbean. It'll be interesting to see if the models keep that up.
  8. Now the Euro is on board with possible development next weekend?
  9. Today's 6z GFS shows a system in the gulf on May 9, not developing but maybe?
  10. 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 Location: 25.9°N 90.0°W Moving: NE at 22 mph Min pressure: 1001 mb Max sustained: 60 mph But still a Potential Tropical Storm...
  11. If this hits Florida as a high end TS or low hurricane, I gotta give it to the GFS. Three weeks ago the GFS was consistently showing this exact system impacting somewhere in Florida on October 19-20. Pretty impressive.
  12. There's a disturbance in the central Atlantic right now that the GFS and Euro are hinting at and the CMC is going full throttle with. Will be interesting to see if the NHC mentions it at 8pm.