cptcatz

It's an estimate of the highest winds over water as it makes landfall. What part of that can't you comprehend?

Yooo this new plane just recorded 136 kt flight level wind...

I think the surge will be overblown on this. A fast moving small storm doesn't have time to build up a big surge. Kinda like a Charley situation.

Yep, people seem to only remember the ones that intensified upon landfall. But Idalia in 2023 weakened right before landfall, Delta in 2020 did too, and of course Katrina weakened big time before landfall.

Anyone know what's up with the recon plane? Going in weird directions and altitude is all over the place

I mean the noreaster last week looked far better than this does

I feel like asking NHC if those 100 mph winds are in the room with them right now...

Looks like it's trying to wrap some deep convection around the west side of the eye. If it can hold on and build an eyewall out of this, that's it's shot.

Looks like it's struggling. What else do you expect from #2026?

What a season! It's September 19 and a new weak tropical depression near the Azores is getting all the hype.

You've been posting lots of UK runs showing a tropical cyclone lately with nothing coming of it. UK has been just as bad as GFS with its fantasycanes.

Pretty remarkable, we are now looking at a solid chance of going the rest of September with no tropical cyclone, let alone a hurricane. Now that GFS finally dropped its fantasycane, models show zilch into October.

I don't think this is accurate. Weather phenomena don't have "functions". They are the outcomes of atmospheric processes and don't actually have purposes.

Is there any research or data on how hurricanes one year impact the ocean temperatures the next year? I feel like just because there may not be any hurricanes this year, that doesn't impact next year's ocean temps nearly as much as other ocean and atmospheric processes that take place over the winter.

Moved even further to the northeast than recon even thought! Landfall is definitely a possibility...