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cptcatz

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  1. 1) Sandy made landfall at 945 mb 2) Sandy was 1,100 miles wide 3) Sandy pushed the surge into New York Bay which is one of the largest bays in the world and naturally incredibly surge prone. There is nothing like that around where Nicole is going. To sum it up, this is nothing like Sandy.
  2. Looks like it's trying to pop some convection on the western eyewall. Needs it to stick if it's gonna intensify some more.
  3. Wow that recon pass really just ramped things up quick. On the verge of being a hurricane now.
  4. Anyone know when the next low level recon is?
  5. Someone tell me if I'm crazy but I'm seeing the LLC now moving just EAST of due south...
  6. The last few frames of satellite looks like the center is moving due south and convection is trying to pop right there.
  7. It's going to be a top heavy storm with all the bad weather to the north. Regardless of what happens Orlando is gonna get some nasty weather. Canceling your trip depends on what you plan on doing there.
  8. 06Z GFS shows landfall in Boca Raton (where I live) at 984mb vs Euro shows landfall in West Palm Beach at 998mb. If you split the difference you get landfall in Boynton Beach at 991mb.
  9. At least the track is pretty locked in. At this point in Ian's life the GFS was showing a panhandle/Alabama storm while Euro/UK were showing Naples to Tampa.
  10. I think it's a given that Wednesday and Thursday will be a washout at the very least. There could definitely be bigger issues if this thing is on the stronger side of the models...
  11. ^I suppose a 977mb storm would be the worst case scenario for a mid-November sloppy subtropical system... Anyways, the ensembles are just as bullish as the GFS operational.
  12. All year GFS and Euro have been meeting half way. Now with GFS showing 982mb and Euro showing 1006mb, mark my words here that it will be 994mb.
  13. All models are in good agreement of some kind of sloppy system heading west over the Bahamas and into Florida next week. GFS with a 991mb into Jacksonville.
  14. So I'm counting like 8 tropical storms on the 06z GFS?
  15. Although euro doesn't show anything, EPS is as bullish it's been with this afternoon's run. There's a few really strong ones in there...
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