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cptcatz

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  1. Looks like the season's a wrap. So much for the La Nina late season action...
  2. GEFS really doesn't want to give up on this Caribbean storm later this week.
  3. Aaaaaand now the trifecta is complete with GFS coming in...
  4. Euro and CMC now both showing low pressure at the exact same spot at the exact same time...
  5. Euro ensembles are getting on board. Seems pretty likely we'll see another hurricane next week.
  6. Three GFS runs in a row now showing a hurricane forming near Purto Rico...
  7. GEFS has been pretty consistent showing a wave entering the Caribbean the last week of October. Maybe this one will finally verify?
  8. 18z GEFS has an impressive swath of strong storms heading up through the Bahamas/Florida
  9. I mentioned I'd put 2008 in front of this year.
  10. Interesting to think back how this season would compare to other seasons say in the past 20 years (even though it's not even over yet). In terms of US impacts, obviously 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 stand alone. But other than those, 2011 had Irene, 2012 had Sandy, 2016 had Matthew brushing the coast, 2018 had Michael and Florence. 2007 and 2008 destruction was mostly in the Caribbean and Central America. I can't think of any really bad US impacts in 2000-2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013-2015, and 2019. With the mere presence of Ida, in terms of US impacts I'd put this season just behind 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, and maybe 2008 in the past 21 years. Definitely wouldn't call it a dud.
  11. 12z GEFS still coming in strong. Not really concerned with no other model guidance as GFS has really been the king of cyclogenesis this year while all others have lagged behind. I'd be very surprised if nothing comes of this.
  12. It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing.
  13. Why are the 12z runs initializing such a weak storm? Euro is at 993, CMC is at 999, and GFS is at 971. We have recon data from last night proving the pressure is in the 940s and it obviously hasn't weakened. What gives? And could that affect the rest of the model run?
  14. I have a feeling south Florida's luck is going to quickly run out...
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