cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. I don't know but the outflow of it provided a full day of much needed rain for us in south Florida.
  2. If we're having fun with the random 14 day out models, the 18z GEFS shows a signal for another western Caribbean storm possibly heading towards your area...
  3. Weird, because that seems to contradict this map
  4. GFS has been pretty consistent with this homegrown system developing around June 10. This run also adds in a twin out in the Atlantic
  5. GFS dropped it. Looks like King Euro reigns supreme.
  6. Test on whether the Euro will continue the trend of doing a terrible job at cyclogenesis: The GFS has been on this system for a while, shows a 939 mb storm south of Okinawa 240 hours out while Euro has squat. Who will win?
  7. I was also looking for the Sally thread a while back and couldn't find it either, only the banter thread.
  8. The first GFS fantasyland tropical system of the 2021 Atlantic season!
  9. I'd love to know where you're getting your data from being that the models are not showing that... https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384171583023968259
  10. Interesting graphs being tweeted. This one shows the average ENSO for peak season is heading to a weak Nina: While this one shows a weak Nina producing the highest ACE:
  11. TSR and CSU should be coming out with forecasts any day now. Anyone know when we can expect them?
  12. Lots of models now showing potential for something to spin up off the SE coast early next week...
  13. Still looks like a strong La Nina though. Any news on if they think that will change?
  14. Andrew was a cat 5 but I can't think of any other A-named cat 5's meaning that's the only season that opened with a cat 5. Has any other season other than 2020 ended with a cat 5?
  15. With nothing showing on any global models now, it looks like the season may be a wrap. Quite a crazy season. I think the most impressive stat is out of the 13 hurricanes, 10 made landfall at or near maximum intensity.
  16. Iota: "thanks, I'll take my beer back now"
  17. There's a pretty decent signal for another TC development next weekend. One ensemble member has a major going into Miami.
  18. It would have to get over quite a ridge to make it up to the CONUS
  19. Looking back on some earlier posts, it's pretty amazing that the GFS got the dip and stall near the Keys pretty spot on 10 days in advance, even if it was way too bullish on the intensity.