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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. I think it would slightly increase the odds if storms develop out there but I think a bigger factor for recurves is the strength of the Bermuda high and whether or not the storms find the weakness to turn. The high temps also don't necessarily mean storms will get strong out there, as we've seen the last few years shear and dry air have been shutting down the MDR quite a bit.
  2. Back to back euro runs show the Caribbean storm miss the front and lingers, strengthening into a hurricane...
  3. Might be time to start discussing the Caribbean potential storm. GFS is now with development insie 4 days. Euro not seeing it but has support with EPS.
  4. Anyone know what kind of building codes they have there? These high rises look modern with sleek glass but I wonder how well they are actually built...
  5. Last two runs of GFS going all in with a cat 5 in the western Caribbean
  6. It was. Look through the first couple pages of this thread. A lot of talk about recurves and analogs to 2010 which had similar tracks.
  7. Interesting because if you asked somewhat what to expect with an El Nino and record hot Atlantic, that's exactly what you'd expect.
  8. Both areas, the MDR wave and the east coast system, are looking juicy this morning. Surprising neither are invests yet.
  9. 18z GFS weenie run bringing a major hurricane into Norfolk at a right angle, front right quadrant going into Chesapeake Bay...
  10. GFS can't make up its mind with Nigel. After that crazy 00z run, it follows up with 06z where it doesn't even make it west of Bermuda.
  11. Track kinda, but Henri was a minimal hurricane at its peak and made landfall as a tropical storm. This could impact that area as an equivalent cat 2 hurricane with a massive windfield. I know it's weenie frowned upon here to bring up the certain S storm as comparison, but it seems that's the most comparable storm in recent history.
  12. GFS hour 132 looks like it's hooking west in Boston. Ugh maybe I shouldn't watch this frame by frame.
  13. Icon, CMC, GFS all west at 12z. Maybe yesterday's euro was on to something?
  14. Recon showing its intensifying. Pressure down to 951. Starting to look better on satellite.
  15. 00z GFS weenie run, basically worst case scenario for the mid Atlantic
  16. Kinda interesting that it seems odds are quite good that Nova Scotia will get some hurricane-like impacts from Lee. In the last 4 years, Lee will be the 4th (post) tropical cyclone to make landfall on Nova Scotia, along with Dorian, Teddy, and Fiona. Also interesting is that all four storms peaked at cat 4 or 5.
  17. 12z Euro initializing at 984, steady for the next 24 hours, and still brings it down to 924 north of Puerto Rico, a difference of 60 mb. With it actually being 942 right now, does that mean it really gets down to 882?
  18. Lee is about to blow open the hurricane/MH days stat. Looks like all those bullish seasonal forecasts will verify.
  19. If this were to verify, i assume that would be catastrophic surge into Boston harbor?
  20. Sounds like then it would show a 880mb storm riding up the east coast merging with a polar vortex causing a blizzard with 170 mph winds.
  21. All major models now showing yet another potentially strong CV storm about a week behind Lee, NOT the current NHC marked orange. Looks like we're getting our answer of which will win the El Nino vs hot Atlantic...
  22. 18z euro ensembles definitely more sw than previous runs...
  23. Yeah, still, it's not often you see Euro going to 917 in a long range forecast. This thing is gonna be a quite something.
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