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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Might be getting ahead of myself here but after Helene, it looks like the next threat may be the MDR storm which will come off Africa this weekend. There's a strong signal across all models for a low rider that looks like could make it to the caribbean and could be strong. Euro here:
  2. cptcatz
    Impressive amount of convection popping now off the Yucatan coast. Seems the sheer is gone. Should wrap up now.
  3. cptcatz
    Last few frames of visible satelite make it look like that naked swirl is moving almost due south.
  4. cptcatz
    Hour 384 of this morning's GFS make October 9 look more like September 9. MDR season is definitely not over yet.
  5. cptcatz
    Not seeing that. 06z has two members anywhere on the west coast of florida. All others are big bend and west.
  6. cptcatz
    8am up to 10/70 and we now have an X on the map. Hopefully that means in invest is coming later today.
  7. cptcatz
    18z GFS coming in hot. 951 mb headed towards the Panhandle at h126
  8. cptcatz
    Also tornado threat with these big broad tropical storms moving into the gulf coast.
  9. cptcatz
    Looking ahead, the long range GFS is finally showing big action with 4 hurricanes in the next 15 days. It does seem that this season will just be back loaded.
  10. cptcatz
    Wild GFS run with that MDR storm making it's way into the caribbean as well...
  11. cptcatz
    Watch out with that next MDR storm. I'm actually surprised the NHC hasn't marked it yet, models are showing TCG taking place in the eastern Atlantic at a very similar time as the caribbean. The caribbean storm could very well be the dreaded I storm if it takes its time to organize...
  12. cptcatz
    Interesting thing to note is how big the models are showing this storm being. Remember that storm surge isn't about the max winds of the eye wall but the size of the storm and the time over water are far more impactful. This set up could result in historic storm surge.
  13. cptcatz
    GFS now with 4 runs in a row with a major hurricane in the Gulf/Florida Straits. That 0z run demolishes the entire east coast. GFS and CMC now in good agreement, just need to see if Euro comes in board or not.
  14. cptcatz
    I'm watching the southwest Caribbean next weekend. All models are hinting at something forming and moving north.
  15. cptcatz
    Assuming that the PT6 forecast verifies and it makes it to hurricane, we'd be sitting at 6/4/1 with all 6 storms making landfall. While the numbers are low, the impacts are impressive. It's looking like the next MDR storm could break that streak but I think it's too early for that. History buffs: anyone know the longest streak of named storms to make landfall (to start the season or otherwise)?
  16. cptcatz
    Yeah this one is looking interesting to me, especially after that 18z GFS run. I wasn't around for either of those three above storms but I am getting Irma vibes from this.
  17. cptcatz
    I think the better question is why in the world should Colorado State University have any credibility at predicting hurricane seasons? Maybe Colorado should stick to snow pack predictions for skiing while University of Miami should take over hurricane predictions...
  18. cptcatz
    I'm not sure I trust anything anymore. Here's a post from 2.5 weeks ago calling for a good chance of an MDR storm just two weeks down the line (lining up to the past few days). That being said, the wave in the caribbean is looking quite juicy right now so we'll see what happens.
  19. cptcatz
    Might be grasping at straws here but it looks like the wave entering the caribbean has split with a solid area of convection heading WNW north of the islands towards the bahamas. Maybe something to watch?
  20. cptcatz
    The 06z GFS does pop the lid, producing maybe 5 different names storms?
  21. cptcatz
    Lol. "Don't look at long range operational runs!" "But check out this euro operational run 10 days out!"
  22. cptcatz
    While we wait for the season to do something, I figure I'll share my newest video highlighting the top 10 hurricanes to hit Florida:
  23. cptcatz
    Not really. Maybe in the MDR but October is when development pushes west in the Caribbean and GOM. Look at Wilma, Sandy, Michael, Matthew, Delta, Zeta.
  24. cptcatz
    Last two GFS runs finally had something to look at long range. Maybe we'll see more stuff pop up on today's runs. Kinda crazy that it's August 20 in a forecasted hyperactive season and there's basically nothing on the horizon. I definitely can see october being busy based on the last 5 or so years.
  25. cptcatz
    I hate to pull an ldub here but I'm itching to see something else on the long range models. Strange that all models now reach to the end of August and there's still nothing on the horizon after Ernesto. This season is definitely impressive with assuming Ernesto makes MH, we'd be at 5/3/2 by mid August, but I'm still not seeing the upper 20's named storms as many predicted.
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