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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Impressive dropsonde. Not sure I remember seeing a 170 knot gust in quite a while.
  2. cptcatz
    That's what people probably said about Dennis in 2005. Then Emily said hold my beer. Then Katrina said hold my beer. Then Rita said hold my beer. Then Wilma said hold my beer. Might we get one to beat Wilma?
  3. cptcatz
    130 knot FL wind on that northeast pass, pressure dropping. Oh boy...
  4. cptcatz
    955 mb on this new recon pass. NW winds no higher but we'll need to see the NE pass
  5. cptcatz
    Euro initializes at 996, crosses the islands at 990, continues to deepen in the eastern Caribbean reaching Jamaica at a staggering 966, and then weakens. This is similar to what Icon showed. The question is are these models correct with how conducive for strengthening the eastern Caribbean is? Both models showed it deepening by 30 mb in that time. Could we be seeing a 930 mb storm near Jamaica?
  6. cptcatz
    It's clearly north of due west. The current 5-hour satelite loop on TT shows the eye starting at 10.5 N and ends at 11 N. At the same time it went 1.5 degrees latitude. So the slope of the path is roughly 1/3. That track would miss Barbados and probably just south of the Saint Vincent island, bringing it through one of the small Grenadines islands.
  7. cptcatz
    Icon and CMC both show a strengthening strong hurricane making landfall in Texas. Still 7 days out but I wouldn't discount a chaseable situation on the gulf coast. That's why Josh moved to the gulf coast, he can just make a day trip drive from his house to chase a storm.
  8. cptcatz
    Not sure how much reliance to put into Icon but this run brings it into Galveston at its lowest pressure of the run...
  9. cptcatz
    Interesting run of the Icon coming in right now. Obviously it's initializing way too high at 1004 mb but by the time it hits the islands it's down to 989 and then it continues to intensify all the way through the eastern Caribbean to where it's at 971 just south of Jamaica in 72 hours. The massive takeaway from that is it's forecasting an extremely conducive environment for the next 3 days...
  10. cptcatz
    Looking to back to the first TD advisory (Friday 5pm, not even 48 hours ago), the NHC forecasted at this point it would be between 60 and 75 mph storm. With the 8am being at 115 mph and coming up on the full 11am advisory in a few minutes, any guesses on what the max forecast will be? I say they forecast 135 mph by tomorrow morning with an actual recorded max of 145 mph before leveling out in the Caribbean.
  11. cptcatz
    5 mb drop in an hour...
  12. cptcatz
    A non-saving grace for the islands could be the second hurricane to hit the same spot 3 freaking days later...
  13. cptcatz
    If you're going to bring up global warming, you'll need to account for all global tropical cyclones, not just one basin. All other basins have been completely dead this year and global cyclone frequency has seen no increase over the past 40 years.
  14. cptcatz
    Jeanne 2004 was retired
  15. cptcatz
    If it hits the islands as a major there's a good chance it will be retired. Here's a question for the history buffs: how many major hurricanes have made landfall and not retired? Idalia from last year fits that bill. Any others?
  16. cptcatz
    This is far more interesting to me than any typical June homegrown slop. If we're getting this kind of MDR signal in late June, what the hell is September gonna bring?
  17. cptcatz
    Interesting to see the models get slightly more bullish with every run for the Atlantic system. 12z euro brings it right over my house so I'll be watching that...
  18. cptcatz
    IIRC the only thing that brought Irma back down a little was the eye skimming the mountains of Cuba. If it tracked like 50 miles northeast at that spot, Miami could have been looking at a direct cat 5 hit.
  19. cptcatz
    Euro going all in on these precip anomalies
  20. cptcatz
    I think it would slightly increase the odds if storms develop out there but I think a bigger factor for recurves is the strength of the Bermuda high and whether or not the storms find the weakness to turn. The high temps also don't necessarily mean storms will get strong out there, as we've seen the last few years shear and dry air have been shutting down the MDR quite a bit.
  21. cptcatz
    Back to back euro runs show the Caribbean storm miss the front and lingers, strengthening into a hurricane...
  22. cptcatz
    Might be time to start discussing the Caribbean potential storm. GFS is now with development insie 4 days. Euro not seeing it but has support with EPS.
  23. cptcatz
    Anyone know what kind of building codes they have there? These high rises look modern with sleek glass but I wonder how well they are actually built...
  24. cptcatz
    Last two runs of GFS going all in with a cat 5 in the western Caribbean
  25. cptcatz
    It was. Look through the first couple pages of this thread. A lot of talk about recurves and analogs to 2010 which had similar tracks.
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