cptcatz

That video isn't in daylight. That was the January 31 launch which launched at 6:11pm, about 10 minutes after sunset, I watched it from my backyard and it was fantastic (although the best view still goes to the Inspiration4 launch). Space/rockets interests me just as much as weather and I watch every single rocket launch from here in South Florida. After numerous tries of trying to see daylight launches in cloudless skies, I eventually gave up as they are simply not visible from here. And since the Astra rocket is 1/4 the size of a Falcon 9 and today's launch being at 1:40pm, there was a 0% chance of seeing it from Miami with the naked eye.

It did go east. The Astra rocket was not visible from Miami.

Hate to break it to you but that's an airplane. You can't see Falcon 9 rockets during the day from Miami, let alone this Astra rocket which is a quarter of the size.

It freaking failed 10 km before reaching orbit. Payload lost.

First launch is scheduled for tomorrow at noon. Hopefully it's a successful launch! https://spaceflightnow.com/2022/06/10/astra-poised-to-begin-three-launch-campaign-with-nasa-hurricane-research-satellites/

GFS had really been consistent showing a storm moving north out of the Caribbean this time next week. Talking about 7 days from now, it's not really long range fantasy. If this doesn't verify something really needs to be done with the GFS.

Who is DT?

Models are being pretty consistent with another gulf storm in about 1-2 weeks

Just picked up my first sub-1,000 pressure reading

Rain since midnight now at 8.21 inches. Total for storm is 10.35 inches. Pressure now down to 1,001.32 mb. Highest rain and lowest pressure I've seen here since I moved the week after Irma hit (September 2017).

We've been getting really impressive torrential rain for the past hour. Now up to 6.52" for today and continuing to rise fast, which means nearly 2 inches in the last 1.5 hour. Pressure down to 1,001.07 mb.

From my backyard Ambient station in Boca Raton: Yesterday: 2.14" As of 8:26am today: 4.71" Current pressure: 1,003.12 hPa Radar looks like there's still another couple inches to come.

Looks like it's not going to even be designated a cyclone before hitting Florida.

Almost looks like there's a new area of rotation forming due west of Key West

I wouldn't let your guard down when some of the squalls closer to the center come through. We could get some nice gusts.

And there it is

Gotta think we'll get a PTC, TD, or TS at 5pm along with warnings/watches as impacts in South Florida will likely be starting within 24 hours of then.

Based on the current trends, I-4 from Tampa to Jacksonville seems to be the cutoff of the impacts. You'd probably miss the bad stuff.

12z GFS coming in hot with a legit tropical storm hitting Florida and visible satellite is showing some nice spinnage. Maybe time to make a new 91L thread?

It'll be interesting to see how far east this gets before making landfall and if it can bypass the part of Southern Oaxaca that sticks out. If it gets east of that, it could cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec which is only 124 miles wide with a max elevation under 1,000 feet. That could be a big factor in how disrupted it gets before moving into the Gulf of Mexico. 12z Icon has it getting pretty close, although it still dissipates it.

Overnight euro has a strong TS/cat1 heading right to Tampa...

The big three are all in agreement of a sub-1000 storm passing near/over the Florida peninsula. Probably looking like something like Eta's impacts for us here.

24/13/6 got a feeling about this season

First time this season the bearish Euro has shown a solid TC in the Atlantic. Seems like over the past few years the Euro showing a TC is not something to brush off...

Next area to watch? GFS thinks this strong MJO is gonna spawn a hurricane