cptcatz

Euro going all in

The EPS model on Tropical Tidbits go out further than 240hr and show South Florida is in play bigtime...

I'm watching this closely from Boca Raton...

Can anyone explain what this system is at 10N,35W? It's the most impressive area of convection I've seen all season, so why don't models have it developing?

Yeah this is definitely the most interesting euro run in a while. I still don't trust anything beyond 5 days any more than I can throw them.

I'm no meteorologist, I'm just a guy with logic, but I think a big problem with the seasonal forecasts is it seems that they pretty much only take two things into account: water temp of the Pacific, and water temp of the Atlantic, and spit out numbers based solely on that. And yet what we're seeing is there are so many other environmental factors besides it being La Nina with a warm Atlantic. But I'm ready to throw my towel to ldub. I'm getting tired of watching the models keep dropping the storms at the 5 day mark. What a borefest.

At the 5 day mark, there is zilch happening in the tropics...

The 0z EPS is pretty bullish with three waves in the next 10 days: it starts to develop the current 20% lemon just north of the Caribbean and ends the run with it on a crash course into Florida. The next wave seems a bit messy in the central Atlantic but the third wave looks to be a vigorous one. Looks like the main story of the models is they have no idea how to handle this monsoon trough.

And then every time you declare victory, the GFS comes back to mock you once again, this time with the 06z bringing a major through the Lesser Antilles, direct hit onto Puerto Rico, then bringing the monster into the Gulf...

Lol at the dueling majors. Quiet season who?

Amazing agreement between GFS and Euro on today's 12z runs.

As noted in ldub's posts from late August 2017, the MDR was quite hostile then too until Irma flipped the switch. It's only hostile until it's not, and models are in agreement that that will flip possibly next week.

I'm not saying this storm Euro develops is going to be another Irma, but I'm getting serious vibes from ldub's posts regarding 2017's 93L only two days before it was named Irma:

Euro never had the leading wave doing anything, it has the second wave coming off around 8/24 and the latest euro run 0z is the most bullish with it ending with it at 997 mb. Not sure what you mean by euro dropping it.

Overnight Euro, ICON and CMC are all back with developing the second wave leaving Africa on 8/24. Now the GFS is alone not developing that one...

GFS operational may have eased up but the ensembles still rock Florida and the Gulf Coast in this mornings 06z run.

^GEFS goes ham on south Florida. August 25 will mark the 17 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina making landfall, the last time a hurricane has made landfall on the east coast of Florida...

06z goes just as nuts

The 12Z GFS ensembles are still blasting the east coast...

Aaaand 06Z back to showing 3-1-1 in the MDR by end of August.

Looks like Euro/EPS and GFS/GFES are both in agreement that potentially three waves could develop by the end of August. Waves come off around Aug 20, 24, and another around the 29th that both models are seeing. I suppose we're gonna be sone quietness from ldub...

Here we go, the MDR is waking up

12z euro sticking with that wave...

Euro/EPS and CMC both seeing a solid wave emerging Africa in 10 days. Gotta see if they stick with it and if GFS gets on board, maybe this will finally be the start of the season.

Now this might be the most interesting thing a model has shown this season, even if it may be 384 hours out...