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cptcatz

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Everything posted by cptcatz

  1. cptcatz
    Euro and CMC almost exactly the same with a nice sized MDR storm with a developing wave trailing right behind. Both models have been bullish on this for a number of runs, GFS still not sure.
  2. cptcatz
    Hard to tell but looks like that may be the wave that makes it into the Caribbean which the GFS has been trying to develop next week. After that, Euro, GFS, and CMC are all pointing to a long tracker MDR storm moving off Africa next week.
  3. cptcatz
    I saw him at Sunbelt Rentals getting some industrial sized fans.
  4. cptcatz
    Long range GFS has continually showed a system forming in the central Caribbean and moving north across Cuba towards Florida. This would coincide with peak climo season as well as the strong CCKW expected to be overhead.
  5. cptcatz
    Whatever gets the east side of this storm is gonna get some really nasty winds. 64 knots at the surface is no joke.
  6. cptcatz
    Henri has started it's slight turn west of due north
  7. cptcatz
    It's trying to wrap convection around the northeast side of the center. If it can wrap around, it can be in good shape. Only problem is it's running out of warm water.
  8. cptcatz
    I don't think that's an eye... I think that's the convection eroding and exposing the LLC, which if that's the case is not a good sign for intensification.
  9. cptcatz
    Hot damn, 115 knots at the surface. We got a full fledged cat 4.
  10. cptcatz
    Recon just recorded 115 kt flight level wind. Does NHC upgrade it to cat 3 at 11pm?
  11. cptcatz
    Can't see an eye like that forming in a not-even-hurricane.
  12. cptcatz
    Finally about to get the first real eye of the Atlantic season
  13. cptcatz
    Oof that HMON run brings worst case scenario surge into NY harbor...
  14. cptcatz
    With the rate of inflation and prices of materials, a couple collapsed decks makes for a billion dollar disaster.
  15. cptcatz
    Lots of 18z euro ensembles now show a NYC metro strike. Now that would be something
  16. cptcatz
    TropicalTidbits
  17. cptcatz
    Is that an eye I see right next to the new hot tower popping up?
  18. cptcatz
    Not even a fantasy cane going into September on the GFS? Pretty weak first half of the season.
  19. cptcatz
    68 knots FL winds, I'm pretty surprised NHC isn't putting out a special statement with at least a hurricane watch. With landfall hours away, seems like it's a good time now to warn the coast of possible hurricane conditions.
  20. cptcatz
    Have we had a storm this season where the NHC didn't highlight the uncertainty of the forecast?
  21. cptcatz
    Interesting geography note: if Fred goes due north it would hit the piece of land jutting out. But the models all show it making a slight turn to the northwest bringing it into the bend between Destin and Panama City. This track would give it another good hour or more of intensification.
  22. cptcatz
    Haiti is very prone to earthquakes and to tropical cyclones. Eventually you'll get them occurring close together. I can't see how one would cause the other to happen.
  23. cptcatz
    Recon found 52 knot flight winds and GFS is now showing a 995 mb landfall. I think the panhandle is gonna be in for a surprise.
  24. cptcatz
    Recon finding some impressive winds NE of the center. Interested to see what they say at 11am. Hurricane watches going up for the panhandle?
  25. cptcatz
    Grace doesn't seem to be gaining any latitude at all. Don't see how any of those HWRF runs of it getting north of Puerto Rico could verify. Looks like it could just cruise the Caribbean right into the Gulf.
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