cptcatz

I mentioned I'd put 2008 in front of this year.

Interesting to think back how this season would compare to other seasons say in the past 20 years (even though it's not even over yet). In terms of US impacts, obviously 2004, 2005, 2017, and 2020 stand alone. But other than those, 2011 had Irene, 2012 had Sandy, 2016 had Matthew brushing the coast, 2018 had Michael and Florence. 2007 and 2008 destruction was mostly in the Caribbean and Central America. I can't think of any really bad US impacts in 2000-2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2013-2015, and 2019. With the mere presence of Ida, in terms of US impacts I'd put this season just behind 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, and maybe 2008 in the past 21 years. Definitely wouldn't call it a dud.

12z GEFS still coming in strong. Not really concerned with no other model guidance as GFS has really been the king of cyclogenesis this year while all others have lagged behind. I'd be very surprised if nothing comes of this.

It's cyclical and the quiet pacific shows that. The early 2010s were quiet, 2017 to present is active. In a few years it will get quiet again. The number of cat 5's and strong cat 4's is interesting though and seems to be increasing.

Why are the 12z runs initializing such a weak storm? Euro is at 993, CMC is at 999, and GFS is at 971. We have recon data from last night proving the pressure is in the 940s and it obviously hasn't weakened. What gives? And could that affect the rest of the model run?

I have a feeling south Florida's luck is going to quickly run out...

Looks like over the past few hours it's been moving due west with even a possible wobble to the south. Wonder how long it will keep that up.

Impressive 151 knot winds 447 meters up

5pm: 140 mph, 943 mb It'll be interesting to see how good the NHC is at estimating wind and pressure based on satellite data as recon will give us the real numbers within an hour.

After Sam, it looks like there will be two areas to watch over the next couple weeks. Most models show the next wave (currently at 50% by NHC) curving OTS but a number of ensemble members have it continuing west maybe into the Caribbean/Antilles. Then the GFS/GEFS has been hinting at a CAG type system forming in the Caribbean, maybe something similar to a Wilma/Matthew/Michael track which climo would favor. Looks like we will likely hit the next list of names...

Anyone know when recon plans to fly in?

Looks like the only land at risk is Bermuda. I'd watch that next wave to see if it can sneak into the Caribbean.

Exactly. Like a landfall is definitely gonna happen as long as everything that every model plays out in the exact opposite way they are forecasting. I've only been tracking weather for a handful of years. Has there been another time recently when the models would be this wrong?

I don't think enough wishcasting will get this to the east coast. Only the weakest tracks get it close and seeing how it's already strengthening and with the NHC forecasting a major, seems to be a pretty sure thing it will curve out.

Majority of the 06z EPS members still keeping it quite low...

The last three GFS runs all show this system that looks like it breaks off of Sam as it passes the Bahamas, which then moves west over Florida, intensifies in the gulf, then moves back east over Florida again. The 00z run drops it down to 978 mb.

Looks like that's that for this one. Models showing yet another wave developing behind this one though...

18z GFS is trending significantly south and west...

Getting some Irma vibes here...

GEFS 06z compared to 12z...

The bulk of the 06z Euro ensembles are still keeping it southward on a track into the islands. Euro still seems to be the outlier on the southern track though. Euro also seems to not have been doing well with these MDR storms prior to development.

CMC is still showing 95L developing near the Bahamas. If it can somehow find low shear in that area then it's still on the table. Still over a week out so lots could change.

I think it's time to strip the central Atlantic of the MDR name and give it to the western Caribbean/southern Gulf. That's the new Main Development Region.

GEFS now showing a lot of members bringing into the Caribbean or just north of the islands. WAY too early to call this a fish storm.

I think the worst case scenario would be for it to stay weak through the Atlantic which means it treks due west and then gets to the Bahamas/Florida Straits area where it then rapidly intensifies. Something along the lines of Dorian, Andrew, or 1935 Labor Day...